There continues to be a huge gap in the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks for home run props. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Friday.
It's a full slate of games on the diamond Friday, and there are bound to be dozens of baseballs landing in the outfield bleachers. Banking on bombs brings the fun and adds entertainment value to your betting portfolio.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB home run props
- Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via BetMGM) ??
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+400 via DraftKings) ??
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Friday's MLB home run prop picks
The perennial AL MVP candidate hasn't left the yard yet this season, and Ramirez's underlying metrics are also down. His .157 ISO, 2.1 barrel percentage and 21.3 hard-hit rate are uncharacteristically low, and I'm banking on a sprinkle of statistical correction Friday.
Ramirez boasts a beefy .256 ISO with 73 homers against right-handed hurlers dating back to the 2018 campaign, so his track record far outweighs his stuttering start to the 2023 campaign for me.
This also isn't a tough matchup.
Righty Trevor Williams is starting for the Washington Nationals, and while he's been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters overall, he's already allowe d two long shots and a 11.4 barrel percentage through his first two starts this season. Williams has also surrendered a target-worthy 1.4 HR/9 to righty bats as a starter during his career.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +425 | +320 ?? | +425 | +360 | +400 |
There's clear value in shopping for the best number, too. FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a prohibitive +320 price, so take advantage of the +425 odds through DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM. The difference in numbers checks out to a positive expected value of 25%.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
Typically, I'd be looking at the early-season numbers for Alonso and Oakland Athletics starter James Kaprielian and calling for regression for both.
I'm pivoting in this case.
There isn't a track record of success from Kaprielian to instill confidence, while all Alonso has done since debuting in the show is lead baseball in homers with an elite .277 ISO and 13.9 barrels percentage.
The forecast is also calling for moderate winds blowing out to center field at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on Friday.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +400 ?? | +330 ? | +375 | +265 ?? | +375 |
When checking the odds lists, I wasn't expecting to see Alonso priced at +400 to homer Friday. So, that was a nice immediate bonus. This is also another example of how important it is to price shop in this market. The DraftKings odds offer a mammoth positive expected value of 37% compared to the short +265 number Caesars is hanging.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/14/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)