For the last couple of weeks, I have focused my Bullpen System updates on the streak data that I uncovered and have been tracking. While the results for both the winning- and losing-streak data were modest over the last six days, the angles that thrived most this week were in using caution against overpriced games, even if the better bullpen team was the heavy favorite. I have always believed that there are very few baseball games each season that warrant backing favorites of -190 or higher. I simply don’t feel that a 162-game schedule merits the motivation to be profitable as such huge favorites. In 2023, my theory remains true and powerful. This past week, favorites of this magnitude that had better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings were 9-5 but lost 3.6 units. When the starting pitcher PR difference was less than 20, these heavy favorites were 1-2 for -3.75 units. It’s a reminder that big favorites are not automatic and rarely warrant the price being paid over the long haul.
Before getting into this week’s updates, a reminder that these numbers can of course be found on the Makinen Daily Power Ratings page on VSiN.com for easy usage. Keep this article handy when analyzing each of the daily matchups.
Better bullpen but overpriced angle
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were 9-5 this past six days and lost -3.6 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 6/11 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or more, that team is now 114-55, but for –11.44 units.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at these games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an even better opportunity to avoid games. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 19-32 for -53.2 units! This angle was 1-2 last week for -3.75 units, with the only win coming in the Strider-Verlander game in the Braves-Mets series. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. In my opinion, there has to be a massive starting pitcher strength difference between the teams even to consider paying these prices. The R.O.I. on this has been -104.3%.