MLB Betting Preview | Odds, Best Bets For All 30 Teams Ahead of Opening Day

Major League Baseball is finally upon us. Just getting here? Welcome! Before the first pitch of the 2023 season, there’s a myriad of futures to sort through in order to ensure you find premium value in the betting market.

Below, you’ll find relevant future odds for all 30 teams, as well as one bet our staff recommends throwing down before the 162-game marathon gets going.

Continue reading for odds and best bets for every team in Major League Baseball for the 2023 season.

American League East

Sean Zerillo: We might as well begin by discussing the biggest spring riser — Anthony Volpe (the No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline) — who I bet and entered into the Action App at +2500 on February 23rd. When I ran early projections, Volpe was the only player who stacked up with presumptive favorite Gunnar Henderson (No. 1 prospect) based on average WAR as a component of playing time.

In late February, I only had Volpe slated for 250 plate appearances but was willing to speculate on his talent level (represented by the matching average WAR projection). After a strong spring, I now project Volpe for closer to 560 plate appearances, with the opportunity for even more depending upon his lineup spot, health and performance.

For context, three different projection systems have updated their numbers since Volpe won a roster spot; all have him projected between 3.0 and 3.5 WAR.

At this point, I would just about set Volpe as a co-favorite with Henderson, and considering the price differential, the Yankees’ phenom is still my favorite bet in the AL, down to +500.

While pitchers typically don’t win the award, there are a couple of potential studs in the 2023 class with Grayson Rodriguez (No. 7 prospect) and Hunter Brown (No. 43). Rodriguez will start the year in the minors after a shaky spring, while Brown is currently nursing a back injury. Still, both have the potential to emerge as frontline starters at the MLB level immediately.

Tanner McGrath: The projections don't like it, and the public doesn't like it, but here's my case for why the Red Sox can be a .500 ball club this year.'

The biggest issue with the 2022 Red Sox was an inability to close games. The Sox blew a preposterous 28 saves out of 65 opportunities, many of which came in divisional games, where the Red Sox went an abysmal 26-50.'

The most obvious bullpen addition is Kenley Jansen, who immediately steps in and solves the closer problem that Alex Cora was trying to patch together all season. But don't overlook the additions of Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez (although the latter may be hurt to start the year), as either is better than whatever the Sox were throwing out in the final frames last season.'

Meanwhile, the offense will certainly take a step back sans Xander Bogaerts. However, it's often overlooked how good the Red Sox offense was last year, finishing the year with the league's most doubles and top-10 in hard-hit and barrel rates.'

So, I don't think it'll be as bad as everyone makes it out to be.'

I'm also betting on the Red Sox upside.'

First, Tristan Casas could turn into an elite MLB first baseman. He profiles as one, and ZiPS projects him with a 121 wRC+ this year.

Second, Brayan Bello has better stuff than 90% of big-league pitchers, as his fastball-changeup mix is elite at forcing whiffs and weak contact. He struggled to start the season but ended with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts. He could carry that momentum into this season.

Finally, Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida shouldn't be overlooked. Both profile as three-win batters and could collectively compensate for Bogaerts' absence, especially with both batting directly behind Rafael Devers.'

Ultimately, this squad may surprise people and the projections. I expect the Sox to win a few more games than last year and surge over the 78.5-win total, finishing right in the thick of the wildcard race.'

Sean Zerillo: The Yankees underachieved by seven wins last season while ranking as the top defensive team in baseball. Just 13% of their defensive value was tied to the infield shift, so their defensive excellence should carry over into 2023, and adding an impact-free agent in Carlos Rodon raises their ceiling.

My projected win gaps between the Yankees and'Blue Jays'(5.8 wins) and Yankees and'Rays'(7.2 wins) split the difference between the aggressive projection on the Bombers from PECOTA (7.9 and 10.7 wins from Toronto and Tampa Bay) and the tighter'AL East'projection from ZIPS (3 and 3.3 wins differentials).

As a result, my projection would come in right around the PECOTA/ZIPS composites lines I provide for quick reference.

-150 seems a fairer price on the Yankees' divisional odds than the market average, and I would set their'World Series'line closer to +650 rather than the best available price (+800 at'FanDuel)

However, I prefer their AL Pennant Odds (+350 at'BetMGM'and'Caesars) to a World Series ticket at this stage.

Sean Zerillo: We might find some value in the saves market with the projected leader and favorite Edwin Diaz out for the season.

Similar to the pitcher wins market, I'm merely looking for players that are mispriced relative to their projection bucket, and three closers on potentially playoff-bound teams – Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Pete Fairbanks – seem mispriced.'

Unfortunately, the odds for all three pitchers have decreased since I bet them (at +2000, +3300, and +8000, respectively). Still, based on their projections alone, they should be lined closer to +1500, +2000, and +5000, respectively – so there is still room to bet each.

Fairbanks was my favorite bet a few weeks ago, but his velocity is down in spring training. Like Holmes, he is the head of a committee in Tampa Bay and the Rays don't necessarily save their closer for the final three outs.

Fairbanks was ridiculous in 24 innings last season (1.03 xERA) and arguably the best pitcher in baseball after returning from injury. His price is attractive considering his elite skillset. Still, he's never pitched more than 42 innings in an entire season – and may already be hurt again. Otherwise, I would have bet more at these odds.

Doug Ziefel: The Blue Jays were a team getting a ton of love heading into last season, as they were a trendy World Series pick. Although those aspirations did not come to fruition as injuries struck, the lineup was a tad streaky, and their season culminated with a wild-card elimination.

However, fans and bettors should have renewed optimism around this club as they may be stronger than last year. They bolstered the starting rotation with the signing of Chris Bassitt and gave their lineup some flexibility by acquiring Daulton Varsho.

Speaking of the lineup, it will still be a daunting task for any pitcher to go through. Toronto led the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity last season and will be near the top again if the lineup remains intact.

The Blue Jays’ ability to drive the ball and make loud contact will help them climb the standings this season, as a stable rotation will support the lineup, and we should also expect the Yankees to regress as well.

American League Central

Sean Zerillo: The White Sox overachieved by three wins last season and still finished nine wins below their win total.'Every projection system likes them to go Under'again in 2023, and I am the low man in the market – seeing nearly a seven-win gap between my projection and Chicago's listed total; while the projection market is closer to a four-win delta.

The White Sox were miserable defensively in 2022 (-35 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th) and should be worse without the shift (12 Defensive Runs Saved via the shift). They also ranked as a bottom-10 baserunning team.

While this 26-man roster offers high-end talent, their 40-man roster (and beyond) lacks competent replacements.

The White Sox will need extraordinary injury luck to make a playoff'push'in 2023.

D.J. James: This is more of a play on the rest of the American League Central. While the news of Triston McKenzie starting the season in the injured list definitely knocks the Guardians down a peg, this team should be able to win the American League Central, and at that point, the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Hunter Gaddis is likely replacing McKenzie for the time being. Across 57 games in the minors, he held a 3.90 ERA, so he can hold the rotation slot with Konnor Pilkington possibly waiting in the wings.

This team still has a solid cast around the pitching staff. They have Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan and Emmanuel Clase to close out games, so manager Terry Francona has plenty of options.

Spearheaded by Steven Kwan leading off and never striking out, the lineup is not bad, either. They added Mike Zunino and Josh Bell to the mix, who help bolster a lineup that lacked a bit of power. Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez had career years, and Jose Ramirez can hit with the best of the league. If Oscar Gonzalez can display some patience, he has a bright career ahead of him.

Top to bottom, this team has more depth than the talented, but oft-injured Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins also have a questionable pitching staff, so betting on the team that can get through the division and be undervalued for the playoffs is a decent look.

If the Guardians can get to October with a healthy pitching staff, this team can hold most teams in check.

Sean Zerillo: A second'consensus Under bet'- between my projection and the market projection -'at 70 wins or higher. However, ZIPS (70.3 wins) would recommend betting the Over or passing at the current number.'

Detroit won 66 games in 2022 but overachieved by three wins, and the Tigers still finished 8.5 wins below their listed total.

While they ranked as an above-average defensive team (25 Defensive Runs Saved, 13th), the Tigers relied heavily upon the shift (+25 DRS); and like the White Sox, they struggled on the base paths (22nd).

And their two best young pitchers – Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize – are slated to miss most of the 2023 season. Skubal (2.9 WAR in 21 starts) was the Tigers' most valuable player by a fairly significant margin in 2022.

Jim Turvey: It would be very easy to skim right over the Royals, so I had to catch your eye with this big number. Now, I wouldn't have blamed you for skimming over the Royals. They haven't been relevant in almost a decade now (isn't it crazy how long ago 2015 was?!), and they're in the most forgettable division.

However, there's a little bit of intrigue to be found in Kauffman this summer.'

For one thing, they have a new manager. It's Matt Quatraro, and while the Tampa Bay Rays coaching and front office tree has proven to not be 100 percent infallible in recent years (oh hi, Chaim), that's always the type of hire that's going to at least draw further attention from me.'

And on closer inspection, the Royals next wave is here. Their starting lineup consists of Salvador Perez as the veteran behind the dish, Hunter Dozier randomly hanging out at third base, and then basically an entire wave of young players who debuted last season or just a hair before.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the biggest name of the bunch, but Vinnie Pasquantino has baseball hipsters nearly as excited. MJ Melendez is a projections darling this season, and the outfield is a collection of fast dudes with enough pop in the bat to play – a great fit for that spacious outfield in Kansas City. The team can just see what sticks there until Drew Waters returns.

The pitching is the biggest question mark, but it's also where there's arguably more pedigree. Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles are the low-ceiling top two of the rotation, but after that, it's a collection of first and second-round picks who the Royals will continue to test out.

Brady Singer is the most established, but there are a variety of arms they can go through if they so please: Kris Bubic (1st round, 2018), Daniel Lynch (1st round, 2018), Jackson Kowar (1st round, 2018), Asa Lacy (1st round, 2020), T.J. Sikkema (1st round, 2019), Jonathan Bowlan (2nd round, 2019), Alex Marsh (2nd round, 2019).

If Quatraro brought even a bit of that touch of experimentation and pitching magic from Tampa, this could be a really fun team with a ton of young talent ready to explode. And if you want to go the more boring (and safe, I suppose) route of just betting their win total over, I also like that play. (Best odds are over 68.5 -110 at Caesars).

But to win the AL Central is a far lower bar than I think any of even think about, and FanGraphs odds say this should be closer to +3000, so there's a bit of an edge (even if that edge is tiny by implied odds, and Baseball Prospectus actually thinks the odds should be even longer).

Tis the season for eternal optimism, and with a fun, young core, and a fresh new manager, why not have a little fun on a lotto ticket?'

Charlie DiSturco: It seems like the Minnesota Twins are going unnoticed.'

This is a team that sat at 67-61 and in the thick of the AL Central race late in the second half of the season. But despite buying at the deadline, a season littered with injuries ended 11-23.'

There's a lot to be positive about with this Minnesota roster. This is an underrated rotation that added Pablo Lopez in the offseason, and with both Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda at full health, the group of five is arguably as well-rounded as the White Sox and Guardians.'

The necessary adjustments were made in the offseason on the offensive end, too. Carlos Correa was re-signed after a rollercoaster month where he nearly ended up a Giant and Met, and Christian Vazquez was brought in to shore up weakness at the catcher position.'

  
Read Full Article