Will we have only one day with four games this weekend or will we have two? The Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers face elimination on Saturday, so we’ll see if those teams are able to extend their respective series and keep their World Series hopes alive. Baseball starts at 2:07 p.m. ET and runs late into the night with two NLDS games and two ALDS games on October 15.
Braves/Phillies starts the day as the early game, followed by an early start in Seattle for the Mariners’ first home playoff game since 2001. The Yankees and Guardians flip venues and start in Cleveland at 7:37 p.m. ET and the Dodgers and Padres wrap up the night at 9:37 p.m. ET.
The Braves opted to go with Spencer Strider fresh off of the injured list in Game 3 and it backfired badly. Strider only recorded seven outs and gave up five earned runs in Philadelphia’s 9-1 blowout win over the reigning World Series champs. Now Atlanta gives the ball to Charlie Morton with the season on the line. Fortunately, Morton is no stranger to elimination games and his teams have won all four times they’ve faced a win or go home scenario.
Morton wrapped up the regular season with a 4.34 ERA, a 4.11 xERA and a 4.26 FIP. By the standards of the starters that we’ve seen to this point, Morton’s numbers are some of the worst. He had major command issues this season and allowed 28 home runs in his 172 innings of work. He still struck out 205 batters, but had his highest BB% since 2018 and yielded the most hard contact of his career.
Atlanta does have Jackson Stephens in long relief if needed, but Jake Odorizzi was used up in Game 3. Atlanta’s primary reliever have not pitched much in this series, so manager Brian Snitker may call upon guys like AJ Minter, Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen to get four or more outs if required.
The Phillies are going with Noah Syndergaard after he worked a relief inning in Game 1. Opting for the right-handed Syndergaard over the left-handed Bailey Falter could allow the Phillies to do some sort of piggyback scenario in which neither guy has to turn the lineup over twice. With the lopsided margin of victory in Game 3, Philadelphia was able to hold back guys like Zach Eflin and Seranthony Dominguez. Furthermore, each reliever threw 15 or fewer pitches, so everybody should be available if called upon.
The Braves do catch a break here facing Syndergaard. Their biggest weakness on offense is striking out and guys like Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler can generate a lot of swing and miss. Syndergaard only struck out 16.8% of the batters that he faced over 134.2 innings of work. He posted a 3.94 ERA with a 4.43 xERA and a 3.83 FIP. Nine of his 24 starts came with the Phillies, where he had a 4.12 ERA with a 3.66 FIP and an even lower K%.
The Phillies are not a very good defensive team, which is a big part of the reason why Syndergaard’s BABIP against jumped from .276 to .319 when going from the Angels to the Phillies. He did exercise good command in terms of his Hard Hit% and home run rates, but the Phillies just don’t do well converting batted balls into outs. That will be a huge key in Game 4.