One of both of the League Championship Series could end today, as the Phillies are on the brink of advancing to the World Series over the Padres and the Astros are a win away from a sweep of the Yankees. With no day off in the NLCS, the Phillies would absolutely love to win this afternoon and avoid a cross-country flight back to San Diego. The Astros are hoping not to have to play Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.
With limited lead time before the 2:37 p.m. ET first pitch in Philly, let’s get to the breakdowns.
What a difference a few days makes. Sure, this game is in Philadelphia and not in San Diego, but the Padres were in the -115 to -120 range in Game 1 when Zack Wheeler beat Yu Darvish in a 2-0 affair. Home-field advantage sure ain’t worth 50-60 cents, but we’ve seen a big swing in this line as the Phillies have clearly been the better team in this series.
Both guys were extremely effective in Game 1. Darvish allowed two runs on three hits, with solo homers in the mix from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Wheeler allowed just one hit over his eight nearly-flawless innings. He had eight strikeouts to seven for Darvish, but both guys only walked one batter and kept the hard contact to a minimum. In that game, the Phillies had an xBA (expected batting average) of .194 based on their contact quality. The Padres’ xBA was .155.