MLB schedule today has 16 games
Happy Hump Day, baseball fans. Just like yesterday, we’ve got 16 games on the board thanks to a doubleheader, as unplayable conditions washed out the Marlins/Mets game at Citi Field. They’ll play two today and the Marlins don’t have Thursday off, so the bullpen will have to weather a storm of its own in order to make the postseason push the rest of the week.
That gives us seven games in the NL, six in the AL, and three interleague matchups, as we’ve got a surprising number of competitive lines given the stakes at this time of the year across the league. Let’s see what’s on the board for tonight and what looks like a good betting opportunity.
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Here are some thoughts on the September 27 card (odds from DraftKings):
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8)
Parties did take place in Philly and Milwaukee last night, as the Phillies secured a Wild Card spot with their sixth straight win. The Phillies are the No. 1 Wild Card because they won the season series 4-3 over Arizona and the Diamondbacks are five back with five games to play. So, Philadelphia has absolutely nothing to play for other than preparing for the postseason. That means setting up the rotation and keeping the bullpen fresh.
I would fully expect a hangover lineup tonight from the Phils and I would expect all of their key contributors to get a day or two off throughout the remainder of the week. That means Ranger Suarez may not get a whole lot of run support tonight against Johan Oviedo and the Pirates.
Suarez has a 3.89 ERA with a 3.95 FIP, so he’s pitched well overall this season. He allowed four runs on five hits last time out against the Mets, breaking a streak of seven straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. He’s done a really good job of limiting hard contact with a 36.8% Hard Hit% and a 7.9% Barrel% in 353 batted ball events. Given that he won’t pitch for over a week, the Phillies will let him go as long as he can tonight.
Oviedo is finishing the season on a high note for the Pirates with the traditional metrics, but you’ve gotta look deeper. He’s allowed eight earned runs over his last six starts after a couple of rough outings in mid-August. Oviedo is having issues with walks, as he’s walked 17 guys in his last four starts, so that would be the concern here, along with a lot of hard contact in that span. He’s got a 3.44 ERA in his last four starts, but a 5.11 FIP with all of those walks. He’s also allowed a 52.6% Hard Hit%.
While Oviedo’s numbers do scare me, the Phillies clinched in walk-off fashion and the Pirates have battled well in the second half. They said that they’re treating every game like a playoff game. I think they show up tonight and look for a dub. I also don’t think that the Phillies will use Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, or Jeff Hoffman tonight in a back-to-back setting with no reason to add unnecessary risks, so lesser guys will be used if the game is close.
Shop around, as +110 is the lowest number in the market at DK. Other places have a better line.
Pick: Pirates +110
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game 1
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Game 2
Braxton Garrett will start Game 1 for the Marlins, presumably against Joey Lucchesi, as we should run back last night’s pitching matchup. We know that Kodai Senga will start Game 2 for the Mets, but the Marlins have not yet named a starter. I would presume we see an opener followed by Bryan Hoeing, but that remains to be seen.
We don’t have lines on either game this morning. The big takeaway here is that we’ll need to follow Miami’s bullpen very closely this week.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-162, 9.5)
Last night was a devastating loss for Chicago. After jumping out to a 6-0 lead, the Cubs bullpen turned it into a game and then Seiya Suzuki completely whiffed on a fly ball with two on and two out in the eighth that led to two runs. The game never should have gotten to that position, but Suzuki had the miscue and the Cubs lost 7-6.
They have no choice but to pick themselves up now with Jameson Taillon on the hill against rookie Darius Vines. Taillon has a 5.05 ERA with a 4.66 FIP on the season in 144.1 innings of work. He’s had patches where he’s pitched well and he’s coming off of six scoreless against Colorado, but this is a big step up in class to say the least. He’s allowed 31 runs in his last 43.1 innings, but the defense has been an issue, as only 23 of the runs are earned.
Vines was an excellent story in his debut against the Rockies and made his mom very proud, but he’s struggled a little bit since then. Vines has allowed five runs in his three relief appearances over 8.1 innings of work. He only has four strikeouts out of 35 batters faced. And, like so many Braves pitchers, his role could be magnified in the postseason due to injury and ineffectiveness. (https://twitter.com/JomboyMedia/status/1697076975842611636)
The Braves got another bad start from Bryce Elder yesterday. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are hurt. The rotation right now is Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Allan Winans, Elder, and Vines. Fried has a blister and the hope is that he’ll be fine by the postseason, but this bullpen is going to be wearing one with the guys in the rotation.
Vines had a 2.37 ERA in nine minor league starts, but I’m not sure he’s a viable MLB pitcher at this juncture, despite the promise he has shown. He allowed three runs in 3.1 innings five days ago against the Nationals.
With the Dodgers’ doubleheader split yesterday, the lead is four games for Atlanta for locking up the NL’s No. 1 seed and they’re close to locking up the No. 1 overall seed for home-field advantage in the World Series. I lean with the Cubs today, but it’s not a bet I think I can make with Taillon against this lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-142, 8.5)
The Brewers backed into it, but Chicago’s loss last night gave them the NL Central crown. I’m sure there was a celebration, but maybe a subdued one, as Milwaukee is not playing well right now. The Cardinals won 4-1 last night behind a strong effort from Miles Mikolas, who started in place of Zack Thompson, wiping out our bet.
Thompson goes tonight, but it’ll be against Wade Miley instead of Adrian Houser. I don’t really have much to say about this one. I don’t want to back Thompson for the reasons I mentioned yesterday and I’m definitely not interested in a struggling Brewers team with a potential hangover lineup. The Brewers have nothing to play for, as they’re locked into the No. 3 seed.
It’s easy to move past this one.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-112, 8)
I dodged one last night by not fading the Padres, as they won 4-0 over the Giants. Kyle Harrison did not end up starting for San Francisco, as John Brebbia opened and Alex Wood bulked. Today, we know it will be Matt Waldron for the Padres and Sean Manaea for the Giants. Pitching changes are probably going to be pretty frequent this week, so keep an eye out for those.