MLB schedule today has 16 games
It is a very, very busy Wednesday on the betting board, as a double dip in Detroit gives us 16 games to think about on June 14. Once again, nine of the series in action feature interleague play, so there are a lot of games with teams that don’t see each other a whole lot.
Three of today’s games are early starts, with another day game thanks to a traditional doubleheader in Motown. Otherwise, we’ve got a lot of night games to look at and some pretty interesting matchups.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 14 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 8.5)
One of those day games is in St. Louis, as the Giants and Cardinals finish up their series with a businessman’s special at Busch Stadium. It will be Anthony DeSclafani for the visitors and Jordan Montgomery for the home favorite, as this line honestly looks a little too slanted towards the St. Louis side.
Regression has found Tony Disco, though, as he’s up to a 3.89 ERA with a 4.51 xERA and a 3.83 FIP in his 76.1 innings of work. It has been a slow burn, as he owns a 5.63 ERA over his last seven starts dating back to May 8. He actually pitched well last time out against the Cubs, though he did have four walks against just two strikeouts. He allowed six runs over three innings against the Orioles on June 4, which came just two starts after giving up seven runs in five innings to the Twins on May 24.
So, his recent form hasn’t been great, which is why STL is such a sizable favorite here. It’s interesting because Montgomery has nearly identical run metrics to DeSclafani, coming into this start with a 3.88 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP over 72 innings pitched. Since May 10, Montgomery has a 4.65 ERA with a 5.05 FIP in his 31 innings pitched, so, again, pretty similar.
One key difference is that he is left-handed and the Giants are certainly a much more accomplished offense against righties. I’m staying away, both with the limited lead time and that fact, but it is interesting to see DeSclafani a little disrespected in the investment community.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-155, 9)
Sadly, the Cubs and Pirates did play yesterday and the Cubs did win big by a 11-3 count. I should have just added that game to my card and let Mother Nature do her thing, but the wind blowing out was a concern with Jameson Taillon and he did allow a couple of homers, but both were solo shots and he got 11 runs worth of support.
Today’s game features a MLB debut, as the Pirates will send 27-year-old Osvaldo Bido to the bump. Bido has a 4.55 ERA with a 4.64 FIP in his 55.1 innings of work at Triple-A this season with over a strikeout per inning, but also a lot of walks. He’s never really had good minor league numbers and he’s a non-prospect for the Buccos. He throws hard, but with limited control and command, this is a tough draw against a quality Cubs offense.
Drew Smyly goes for the Cubs today as they look for the series win. He’s got a 3.27 ERA with a 3.41 xERA and a 3.95 FIP in his 71.2 innings of work. His numbers have leveled off a bit recently, as he’s allowed 10 earned runs over his last three starts, but he’s still having a fine season and has done a masterful job of limiting hard contact.
The Cubs should win today, but the -170 price tag is not one I’m eager to pay.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 8.5)
Ranger Suarez and Merrill Kelly get this one going out in the desert, as Kelly and the Diamondbacks look to get back in the win column. They had a six-game winning streak snapped in yesterday’s 15-3 blowout loss, as Zach Davies struggled and Zack Wheeler largely did not.
This is the weaker of the two offensive splits for the Snakes against the southpaw in Suarez, but I still don’t mind the matchup for them. Suarez comes into this start with a 4.70 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and a 3.28 FIP, as he’s run a .344 BABIP and a 68% LOB% to have a big discrepancy between his ERA and his other metrics. Suarez has actually done well this season to get more strikeouts and issue fewer walks, but neither of those things are a huge concern against Arizona. The D-Backs don’t walk much, but also don’t strike out much.
The big BABIP increase for Suarez is a byproduct of a bump in Hard Hit%, as he’s got a 38.9% mark for the season, which is still better than league average, but four of his six starts have come in at 40% or higher, including each of his last three against the Mets, Nationals, and Dodgers. He has a 44.8% Hard Hit% in his last three starts, but has only allowed four runs on 17 hits over 19.2 innings.
Kelly is following last year’s breakout season with an even better one this year. After posting a 3.37 ERA and a 3.65 FIP over 200.1 innings in 2022, Kelly has a 2.92 ERA with a 3.74 FIP in 77 innings this season. He’s seen a big K% increase to 26.8% and that has allowed him to work around a little spike in walks. The bump in BB% is a little misleading, though, because Kelly has only walked 13 batters over his last eight starts after walking 17 in his first five starts.
He has not allowed more than four runs in a start and has topped out at three runs over his last five outings. His SwStr% is up to 12.2% this season and he has a deep pitch mix with good spin rates, so it comes as no surprise that Brent Strom was able to do fine work with him.
Arizona’s low wOBA against lefties largely has to do with a low walk rate. They have 10 players with a wRC+ of 107 or higher in that split and should be able to throw at least six, if not seven, righties as Suarez, who has allowed a .316/.368/.495 slash with a .369 wOBA to righties. Kelly, meanwhile, has reverse platoon splits and is actually better against lefties this season, which should neutralize guys like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
I like Kelly over Suarez and I like the Diamondbacks lineup in this matchup, as Suarez has allowed a good bit of hard contact lately.
Pick: Diamondbacks -130
Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 9) at Baltimore Orioles
Jose Berrios and Kyle Bradish meet in this one, as the Jays and O’s play under the lights at Oriole Park. The big bounce back season for Berrios could not have come at a better time for Toronto, as he went from a 5.23 ERA and a 4.55 FIP last season to a 3.61 ERA and a 3.86 FIP this season. He’s seen a modest increase in K%, but the big one is that he’s cut his home run rate significantly and also induced a lot more ground balls.
His GB% has jumped from 40.3% to a career-high 49.1%, leading to the decrease in dingers. He allowed 29 homers in 172 innings last season and has only allowed eight in 77.1 innings this season. He’s also locked in a nice run right now, as he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last seven starts. Since May 6, he has a 2.28 ERA, though that does come with a 4.43 FIP, as he’s struggled in the K and BB departments a bit. He also has a 91.3% LOB% in that seven-start stretch.
But, he also has allowed just a 29.8% Hard Hit% in that span, so he’s done a really good job of commanding the ball. He just hasn’t had a lot of strikeouts to show for it.
Bradish is showing some positive regression signs in his profile, as he comes in with a 4.25 ERA, 4.36 xERA, and a 3.60 FIP. His .333 BABIP against has been tricky to work around at times and his 45.6% Hard Hit% remains an issue. But, Bradish has done a good job of limiting walks and is coming off of a 10-strikeout effort against the Brewers.
I think Baltimore is worth a look here. They will send six or seven lefties at Berrios, who has allowed a .283/.349/.457 slash with a .350 wOBA to left-handed batters on the season. He’s also been dominant at home, where Rogers Centre has been really stingy for offense this season.
Bradish has been strong at home with a .279 wOBA against in 21.2 innings and I think the best part is that the Orioles have Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista each on four days rest for this one. If they have a lead late or this game ends up tied or in extras, Baltimore’s two best relievers are ready to be deployed and could even go multiples if asked. I think that provides a big late-game advantage.
Pick: Orioles -105
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-135, 9.5)
Southpaws square off here as Reid Detmers and Andrew Heaney get the starts for their respective teams. Detmers has thrown the ball much better than his 4.79 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.40 FIP over his 56.1 innings of work. He’s got a .377 BABIP and a 65.4% LOB%, so he’s run on the wrong side of luck and variance to say the least. He has allowed a 42.9% Hard Hit%, so that isn’t too crazy in the grand scheme of things and he has only allowed seven barrels, which is a very good number. He’s only allowed two barrels over his last six starts.
Detmers also has a big 27.2% K% on the season, so you’d really expect the LOB% to be better. But, Cluster Luck has befallen him, as he’s allowed a .408 wOBA with men in scoring position and a .364 wOBA with men on base. Detmers also tires out in the middle innings. He has a .255 wOBA the first time through, followed by a .298 wOBA the second time through. In 52 plate appearances the third time through, Detmers has allowed a .512/.596/.674 slash with a .547 wOBA.
He’s given up 35 runs on the season and 20 of them have come the third time through the order. He has 60 strikeouts in 198 PA the first two times through the order, but just eight in 52 PA the third time through. So, that’s a problem that the Angels need to figure out. He’s held the opposition to three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts and eight of 11 overall.
Heaney has a 4.14 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and a 4.80 FIP in his 63 innings of work. The Rangers lefty has some pretty good peripherals for the season with a 35.5% Hard Hit% and a 24.4% K%, but he also has a 10.2% BB% overall and has allowed a 48.8% Hard Hit% over his last three starts. He’s given up 13 of his 29 earned runs in two of his 12 starts, with rough outings against Baltimore and Arizona spread a month apart.
I wish I could be more confident in Detmers here, as Heaney may be trading in the wrong direction with all that hard contact lately. But, I just can’t be against an elite Rangers offense. I will try to back Detmers in the near future, though.
Tampa Bay Rays (-275, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
What an atmosphere for yesterday’s reverse boycott game in Oakland. The A’s won 2-1 in thrilling fashion in what felt about as much like a playoff game as it can for a team knocking on the door of 50 losses before mid-June.
You do wonder how the A’s do after such an emotional day and victory. You also wonder if their pitching staff can hold Tampa Bay down for another day. It’s just so cost-prohibitive to take Tampa Bay, as they’re a huge favorite on the moneyline and still -150 or higher on the run line.
Tyler Glasnow and Luis Medina are today’s listed starters. Glasnow is making his fourth start of the season with a 2.87 ERA with a 3.72 FIP over 15.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 20 of the 64 batters that he has faced against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers, so he’s really stepping down in class here against an offense that will swing and miss a ton. I would expect a really, really strong outing from Glasnow in this one.
Medina has a 7.53 ERA with a 6.02 xERA and a 6.65 FIP in 34.2 innings of work. He’s given up 10 homers out of 37 hits allowed and has issued 17 walks to go along with 32 strikeouts. He hasn’t allowed a homer in either of his last two starts, but has given up eight runs on nine hits. Even in his last outing against Milwaukee with two runs allowed over five innings, Medina allowed a 45.5% Hard Hit% and has allowed a 43% mark for the season as a whole.
The A’s used an opener for him last time out and also used an opener yesterday with Shintaro Fujinami ahead of Hogan Harris. That would void any bet using listed pitchers, so it gets messy fading Oakland in that regard as well. I think the Rays win and win comfortably, but no play from me here with an opener likely coming and the heavy vig on the run line.
Atlanta Braves (-250, 8) at Detroit Tigers Game 1
Atlanta Braves (-150, 9.5) at Detroit Tigers Game 2
Game 1 will feature Spencer Strider and Reese Olson. I’ll share what I wrote about that matchup from yesterday’s article, but I will NOT be invested in the 1st 5 Under in that one.
Spencer Strider and Reese Olson make for an interesting pitching matchup tonight, as we could see lots of strikeouts in this one. The Tigers beat the Braves yesterday to end their miserable nine-game losing streak, but face long odds to turn it into a winning streak. They do draw a little bit of a struggling Strider, as he allowed eight runs on eight hits last time out against the Mets. Since May 1, Strider has a 5.15 ERA. It was 3.86 prior to his last start, so that’s a tad misleading, but he still hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was early in the year.
That being said, the Mets do see him frequently and do have a lot more talent than the Tigers. The Tigers are also among the worst offenses in baseball against righties. For some of the recent hiccups and hard contact, Strider still has 121 strikeouts in just 73.2 innings of work. He’s got an absurd 19.8% SwStr% and the Tigers rank in the bottom half of the league in O-Swing% and SwStr%.
Olson is making his second start, but third appearance for the Tigers. He’s struck out nine guys and allowed three runs on five hits in 10 innings of work. His last appearance came with an opener and he went five solid innings against the Phillies with one run allowed on three hits. He’s got a 12.2% SwStr% over his first two starts and got lots of swings outside the zone against the Phillies.
With the doubleheader, an early start, winds blowing out, and warmer weather, I’m no longer on that 1st 5 Under.
Game 2 shows Michael Lorenzen for the Tigers and Dylan Dodd for the Braves. Dodd has a 6.64 ERA with a 6.37 FIP in 20.1 innings over four starts this season. Lorenzen has been pretty good with a 3.75 ERA and a 4.03 FIP, but I can’t play a Game 2 before Game 1 is done.
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (-155, 8.5)
Colin Rea and Bailey Ober are the listed hurlers here, as the Twins look to build off of a walk-off win against Devin Williams and the Brewers last night. Rea heads into this one with a 4.47 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.94 FIP in his 52.1 innings of work. To be honest, I’m surprised he’s been this effective, as he’s never really been a Major League caliber pitcher and has bounced around the minors a lot.
It is a testament to how well the Brewers do with developing and enhancing pitching talent, but there is one clear weakness in Rea’s game and it is the long ball. He’s allowed nine homers in his 11 appearances, which is tough to do with a 49% GB%. But, he’s managed to do it. All in all, though, he’s been effective enough and has not allowed more than four runs in any start this season. He’s actually coming off of his best outing of the season with five shutout innings and eight strikeouts against the Orioles.
He has allowed a 42.3% Hard Hit% on the season, but only 11 barrels, due in large part to that high ground ball rate. I’m still not sold on him as a viable pitcher long-term, but he’s been useful enough.
Ober is the opposite of Rea, as he is a fly ball guy, but a guy with a much better command profile. He has a 2.61 ERA with a 3.53 xERA and a 3.28 FIP in his 51.2 innings of work. He has only allowed four homers in the same number of innings pitched. He has also done a far better job of limiting hard contact with a 34.1% Hard Hit%. He also has a 12.2% SwStr%, which should probably have led to more strikeouts than what his 23.6% K% shows.
I am concerned about Ober a bit here, though, as it’s going to be a very hot day in the Twin Cities with temperatures in the upper 80s and a bit of a helping breeze out to RF. This is an early start, so I don’t have a strong enough play to force, but I’m going to hope that Ober gets hit around a bit and maybe I can get a better value on him going forward.
Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox (-240, 10)
For the second night in a row, it was a wild 10th inning at Fenway Park and for the second night in a row, the Rockies bested the Red Sox. Boston is in a real funk right now. The bullpen has been bad for a while and the offense is Jekyll and Hyde depending on where the game is being played. Today’s matchup should help with Austin Gomber on the hill, but Boston is not at all trustworthy at this point in time.
Gomber has been objectively awful this season with a 7.57 ERA, 7.60 xERA, and a 6.75 FIP over 60.2 innings of work. He’s got a 14% K% and a 9.7% BB%, so his peripherals are certainly bad enough to match his run metrics. He’s given up 16 homers in his 60.2 innings after allowing 20 homers in 124.2 innings last season and 20 homers in 115.1 innings in 2021. He just gave up three of them to the Padres and seven runs on 11 hits last start.
So, this should probably be a good spot for Boston. We’ll see if Garrett Whitlock can lock in against this surging Colorado offense. He has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.74 FIP in 32 innings of work, as he missed a month due to injury and is still working his way back. This will be his fourth start since coming off of the IL. In those three starts, he has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.59 FIP after allowing six earned runs on 16 hits to the D-Backs, Rays, and Yankees. This is a step down in class, so he should pitch well.
Nevertheless, I can’t take Boston in any variation today, as they have been really disappointing for a while now.
New York Yankees at New York Mets (-115, 7.5)
Rain threatens the Subway Series matchup between Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander as two future Hall of Famers go toe-to-toe. Yesterday’s game was an interesting one, as both Luis Severino and Max Scherzer got beaten up by lineups missing Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge. The Mets also had another substance-related ejection with Drew Smith sent to the showers. It was a 6-6 game after five innings and only one run was scored the rest of the way.
I can’t imagine we see 6-6 after five innings tonight, but I guess you never know. Cole has a 2.84 ERA with a 4.01 xERA and a 3.70 FIP in his 85.2 innings of work on the season. His K% is noticeably down this season, but so is his home run rate, so you take the good with the bad in this instance. His K% is down to 25.8% from being over 32% every season since 2017. But, his HR/9 is under 1.00 for the first time since 2018 and his HR/FB% is down from 16.8% to 10.1%.