MLB schedule today has 15 games
Wow. What an incredible night for offense around Major League Baseball. On the whole, the league slashed .271/.345/.478 with a .353 wOBA and a 127 wRC+, meaning last night was 27% above league average compared to the rest of the season. The .353 wOBA would rank 37th among 148 qualified hitters and tied with Brendan Donovan and Ozzie Albies. In all, 49 homers were hit and 197 runs were scored across 15 games.
Only 49 qualified hitters are batting .271 or higher for the season.
The average fly ball distance last night was 326 feet, up nine feet from July 1-17 and up 10 feet from the season as a whole through Monday.
The HR/FB% last night was 17.8%. Only four pitchers have a HR/FB% higher than 17.8% among qualified starters – Lance Lynn, Yusei Kikuchi, Austin Gomber, and Hunter Brown.
Twelve teams scored 10+ runs for the first time since July 4, 1894, when 13 teams did it. Four of those teams lost while scoring 10+ runs.
So, the burning question once again…Is the ball juiced? I still don’t think we can definitively say that. A combination of record heat and pitchers who hadn’t pitched in 8+ days had a lot to do with it. Does it make sense for happy homer fun time if you’re Rob Manfred? Absolutely. Do I think that’s what has happened? No…at least not yet. Let’s see how the pitchers do as they get back into the rhythms of the season.
If what we’ve seen since the All-Star Break with a 14.4% HR/FB% continues, then I may be singing a different tune, but I’ll need a couple weeks worth of data to really believe that.
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Here are some thoughts on the July 19 card (odds from DraftKings):
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 8.5)
The Marlins and Cardinals wrap up their series early on Wednesday with a matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Dakota Hudson. It is weird to see Alcantara not favored over such an inferior starter, but he’s had his issues this season and the Marlins are winless in five tries since the Break. In fact, the Phillies have passed them in the NL East and also in the Wild Card chase.
Alcantara has a 4.64 ERA with a 4.39 xERA and a 4.00 FIP in his 120.1 innings pitched on the season. He’s seen a big drop in K%, a spike in his HR/FB%, and a lot less fortune with men on base. His 66% LOB% is the worst of his career in a full season and 12.8% below last season’s finish. He allowed two homers and three runs total against the Orioles five days ago in his first second-half outing.
He did allow 10 hard-hit balls in that start and three barrels to tie a season high, so he has a 40.5% Hard Hit% now with a 6.8% Barrel%. He’s allowed seven barrels in his last four starts and 13 barrels in his last six starts, which accounts for more than half of his total of 25 over 19 starts, so it’s not like the quality of his stuff seems to be improving much.
Hudson will make his first start since 2022 for the Redbirds here. He’s allowed two earned runs on nine hits over 10 innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio. He worked 3.1 scoreless innings against the Nationals four days ago, so he’ll likely be in that 3-4 inning range today. The Cardinals pen has been used a lot thet last two days, but the long men and the lesser guys are available, so guys like Zack Thompson and Kyle Leahy could be the first options out of the pen.
No play on this one, as the Marlins are scuffling and the Cardinals, who have had a good offense all season, are doing everything they can to stick around as long as possible, as they’ve won four in a row.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 9)
The aforementioned Phillies appear to be in good shape to run their winning streak out to five games as they lay a sizable number against the Brewers. Left-hander Cristopher Sanchez goes for Philadelphia here, as he brings a 3.26 ERA with a 3.82 xERA and a 4.15 FIP into his seventh start of the season. He’s got some pretty nice peripherals with a 27/5 K/BB ratio over 30.1 innings pitched and a 54.1% GB%. He has not allowed more than three runs in any outing, though that could change soon.
Sanchez has allowed a 44.2% Hard Hit% and an 11.6% Barrel%. That includes four barrels and a 61.5% HH% in his first start after the Break against the Padres. He allowed 10 hard-hit balls to the Rays in his final first-half start as well. For the season, Milwaukee is 26th in wOBA at .300 against lefties with an 86 wRC+, but they actually boast a top-five offense against southpaws since June 15 with a .342 wOBA and a 114 wRC+. They’ve really cut down on the strikeouts and have had a lot more batted ball success with a .317 BABIP compared to a .290 mark for the season.
Perhaps Colin Rea will get a little run support as a result. He likely needs it, as Rea has a 4.71 ERA with a 4.13 xERA and a 4.82 FIP in his 80.1 innings of work. This will be his first start in 11 days, as he last pitched on July 8 against the Reds and allowed five runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out seven and only walked one, but gave up a lot of missiles with an average exit velo of 95.7 mph and a Hard Hit% of 64.3%. For the season, he has a 42.1% HH%, though he has kept the barrels to a minimum at 6.6%.
I’ll be on the 1st 5 Over 5 here. Sanchez has been struggling to locate and the Brewers have some good vibes going against southpaws. Rea fits the bill as a guy who hasn’t pitched in a while and we’ve seen some of those guys get crushed in their first second-half starts.
If you’re looking at the full game, keep in mind that Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto have worked three of the last four days for the Phillies. The Brewers pen is in better shape. But, I’m just sticking with the 1st 5 and that total.
Pick: 1st 5 Over 5 (-115)
San Francisco Giants (-115, 10.5) at Cincinnati Reds
With all the pitchers getting bashed in their first second-half starts, it is even more incredible that Graham Ashcraft was really good against Milwaukee last Friday. He allowed one run on five hits over six innings and has only allowed three runs on 15 hits in his last 18.2 innings. He still hasn’t found much strikeout upside with 11 of them against seven walks, but he’s found some better batted ball fortunes and he’s back to burning up worms with a 55.6% GB% in that span.
Of course, he still has a 5.95 ERA with a 5.51 xERA and a 5.26 FIP, so I still have plenty of reservations, but it would be nice to see a guy with his raw stuff actually perform up to his capabilities. He’s had some starts where he’s allied a ton of hard contact, including a prolonged stretch from May 23 to June 30, but he’s allowed 12 hard-hit balls in his last 39 batted ball events.
The Giants are a better offense than the Brewers and this is another start at home, where Ashcraft has allowed a .292/.372/.513 slash with a .380 wOBA and has a 7.16 ERA with a 6.11 FIP in 49 innings. So, my hopes aren’t high for this start, but for his sake and Cincinnati’s sake with six straight losses, it would be nice to see him pitch well.
Ross Stripling will start for the Giants, to be followed by… I don’t know. The Giants bullpen is in a sad state of affairs and may need to call somebody up. Sean Manaea threw 40 pitches yesterday. Ryan Walker threw 20 and Jakob Junis threw 19. Camilo Doval has pitched four of the last five days and two back-to-backs, so he’s out for tonight. Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander have both worked three of the last four and Tyler Rogers has worked three of the last five. Only getting two innings from Anthony DeSclafani last night was the worst-case scenario for the Giants.
Stripling may be pushed hard in this one. He has a 6.11 ERA with a 5.33 xERA and a 5.75 FIP in 45.2 innings of work. Since returning from injury on June 28, he has allowed five runs on 13 hits with a 14/1 K/BB ratio in 13.1 innings. That’s good for a 3.38 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. He’s maxed out at 4.2 innings and 18 batters faced and I have to think the Giants will hope for more today.
Tough game to handicap, especially with the state of the Giants pen if it’s close. The Reds bullpen has been used a ton as well, but Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, and Ian Gibaut were not used yesterday at all, so they would have the upper hand in a close game late.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-225, 10)
The Cardinals beat the Falcons 16-13 yesterday, as Matt Prater made a 42-yarder with 13 seconds left on the clock after Colt McCoy went 65 yards in eight plays to give Arizona their first win of the season.
Alright, so maybe not, but we had some football scores, or slow-pitch softball scores, yesterday and this was definitely one of them. Both Zach Davies and Bryce Elder were awful, leading to heavy lifts for both bullpens. Davies at least waited until the second inning to give up five runs. Elder did it right away. The full-game total cashed by the top of the second and the 1st 5 total cashed by the bottom of the first.
Ryne Nelson and Charlie Morton will go today. Nelson has a 4.98 ERA with a 4.89 xERA with a 4.67 FIP in his 99.1 innings pitched. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy with a 15.8% K% and a 43.4% Hard Hit% with a 10.5% Barrel%, so this looks like about the worst possible matchup for him. Atlanta hits basically everything hard and the one thing you can do is get them to swing and miss. Nelson has an 8.5% SwStr%. It was 5.1% against Atlanta when he faced them on June 3 and he allowed a 57.9% Hard Hit% and four barrels with an average exit velocity of 96 mph.
The crazy part is that Atlanta only managed three runs on six hits against him with four walks. Nelson didn’t strike out a batter. It’s the only time this season that has happened. Even though Nelson pitched five days ago against Toronto and held them to two runs, he did allow nine hits. There will be a lot of people on the Braves Team Total Over today and I will be one of them.
Charlie Morton’s second half started with a bang, as he threw seven shutout innings against the White Sox with three hits scattered around a walk and four strikeouts. While the four strikeouts imply a lack of dominance, Morton only allowed a 29.4% Hard Hit% on 17 batted ball events and his second-lowest average exit velocity of the season. The lowest actually came 18 days ago against Miami. He’s only allowed one run on 11 hits in his last 19 innings of work.
There are a few ways to attack this game. Braves run line at -120 at DraftKings and better prices elsewhere. Braves 1st 5 run line at -150. Braves Team Total Over 5.5 at -125. The last one is my preferred method. This will shock you, but it will be hot at first pitch with temps in the upper 80s and humidity percentages in the 60s and rising. It’s a good night for hitting again and Nelson is a guy that the Braves should crush.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 5.5 (-125)
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs (-155, 9)
The Bears defense showed up in a big way with a 17-3 win over the Commanders last night. Justin Fields threw for a touchdown and rushed for another in the fourth quarter, as Chicago put Washington away with a couple of scoring drives late in the game.
The Cubs turned a close game into an absolute laugher with 14 runs over the seventh and eighth innings. It was a 3-3 game through six and the Cubs scored two in the sixth to actually tie it. Then the wheels totally fell off for the Nationals bullpen and Paulo Espino gave up eight runs on seven hits while recording one out. Jameson Taillon and Patrick Corbin were actually pretty decent.
A couple of wily veterans will try to navigate these rough pitching seas, as Trevor Williams saddles up for the Nationals and Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs. Williams has only thrown 2.2 innings here in the second half. He allowed a solo homer against the Cardinals on July 14 and then Mother Nature intervened. The game was suspended and he just shifted his focus to this start. He’s got a 4.42 ERA with a 5.46 FIP in 93.2 innings across 19 starts. He’s a guy that has a low ceiling, but a fairly high floor, in that he tends to keep his team in the game.
Hendricks has a stat line that looks all too familiar for him. He’s got a 3.57 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and a 4.44 FIP in 10 starts across 58 innings of work. His K% is well below past seasons, but he’s been stingy with the walks and has only allowed a 32.4% Hard Hit% in 188 batted ball events. Hendricks has yet to have a game with a double-digit SwStr%, so that worries me, especially if we’re now dealing with a different ball.
He allowed five runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox and gave up four homers. As a guy who is around the plate a lot, I’m thoroughly concerned. He’s allowed six homers in his last two starts and I don’t think extreme heat is good for him, especially if there are shenanigans afoot with the baseball.
Tough handicap here, as the Cubs deserve the favorite price, but I’m not excited to back them here. I also don’t love Williams and the Nationals pen in this one.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-120, 9)
Zack Littell will serve as the opener in the series finale between these two teams, as Jon Gray gets the call for the Rangers. Texas is in search of a sweep here after beating Shane McClanahan and Taj Bradley. Today they’ll get Littell and a collection of relievers. Kevin Kelly and Shawn Armstrong are fresh. Frankly, a good number of guys are available, so it’ll just be a Johnny Wholestaff Day for the Rays.
Littell hasn’t pitched in 10 days and has a 6.05 ERA with 4.12 FIP, so I’d have thought about somebody else to open, but the Rays are way smarter than I am. He’s allowed two runs on four hits in each of his last two appearances, with one as the opener.
Gray has a 3.45 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 4.59 FIP, as there are a good number of regression signs in the profile. He’s got a .253 BABIP against with a 78.6% LOB%, so those are two right there. Gray had a nice K% bump in May and early June, but that has gone away. He has a 6.75 ERA with a 5.74 FIP in his last five starts and has allowed at least four runs in four of them, including his first start out of the Break with four runs on five hits against the Guardians in six innings. He’s allowed four homers in that span with a 16/13 K/BB ratio.
The Rays aren’t really hitting right now and haven’t hit well in a long time. They are baseball’s worst offense by 23 points in wOBA against lefties since June 15 and 16th in wOBA against righties in that span. Gray is a righty, so maybe they have a better shot today, but they haven’t really hit Nate Eovaldi or Dane Dunning the last two nights.
It’s an early game with minimal lead time, so I wouldn’t have a play anyway, but I don’t like anything here. Gray’s recent struggles are an issue, especially with the K/BB numbers.
Boston Red Sox (-215, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
What a breath of fresh air to actually have overnight lines in this series, just as it’s coming to a close. It will be Brayan Bello for Boston and Ken Waldichuk for Oakland to finish things up at the Coliseum. The Red Sox came up on the short end of a 3-0 decision yesterday, as they were blanked by Luis Medina and the A’s pen. They’ve got a great chance to take the series as the line implies.
Brayan Bello gets the ball today for Boston with a 3.14 ERA, 3.77 xERA, and a 3.94 FIP in 86 innings of work. He allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings five days ago to start the second half. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since April 17, which was his first MLB start of the season. He has emerged as a true ace for the Red Sox and should be solid here in this one. Boston faced Oakland just before the All-Star Break, but Bello did not pitch in that series.
Waldichuk has a 6.66 ERA with a 5.23 xERA and a 5.97 FIP over 75.2 innings pitched. He’s made 12 starts and 10 relief appearances. He’s been bad both ways, but worse as a starter. Waldichuk has a 6.71 ERA with a .300/.390/.595 slash against and a .414 wOBA in 52.1 innings as a starter. He has a 6.56 ERA as a reliever in 23.1 innings, but he’s allowed a .373 wOBA in that split. Waldichuk has allowed 14 of his 15 homers as a starter.
Not really much more to add here. Would be pretty bad if Boston can’t win this one with an enormous pitching advantage. They’ll fly home after to host the Mets.
New York Yankees (-140, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
Chase Silseth goes up against Carlos Rodon in this one, as the Yankees and Angels wrap up their series with a 4:07 p.m. PT first pitch, so the shadows could be a factor. This is a true getaway day for the Yankees, as they’ll enjoy an off day on Thursday before flying home to host Kansas City. The Angels stay home and host Pittsburgh.
Silseth has allowed 14 runs on 17 hits in 18.2 innings at the MLB level with a 15/13 K/BB ratio this season and has a 6.08 ERA with a 5.93 FIP in his 47.1 MLB innings. He’s been good at Triple-A this season with a 2.79 ERA and a 3.48 FIP in 42 innings of work. However, he hasn’t pitched since July 5, so he’s on two weeks worth of rest. I’m not super fond of that. Also, Silseth, who went seven innings in his last Triple-A start, had not worked more than five innings otherwise.
I’m not sure how deep he’ll actually be able to go in this one. Fortunately, unlike a lot of bullpens around the league, the Angels pen is in decent shape, though Carlos Estevez has worked three of the last four days.
Rodon has allowed six runs on eight hits in 10.1 innings since coming off the IL. He’s got an 8/4 K/BB ratio in 43 batters faced. He’s allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% and three barrels in two starts, which makes sense, as his velocity seems fine, but command is always the last thing to come back for a pitcher. In three rehab starts, he allowed one run on three hits with a 17/3 K/BB ratio in 10.2 innings.
He went from 69 pitches to 88 from his first start to his second, although this will be his first on four days rest. I’d assume he’s somewhere in that 90 range again. I have no interest in this game, as the Yankees offense stinks to high heaven and I don’t know how sharp Rodon will be.
Detroit Tigers (-145, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough are the listed hurlers here, as the Tigers and Royals play Game 3 of a four-game set. This has been quite the series. The Tigers were shut out by Jordan Lyles for six innings on Monday, only to come back against the bullpen and win 3-2. Yesterday’s game fell in line with most of the league with an 11-10 decision for the Royals. Detroit actually trailed 11-6 in the ninth, but scored four runs against Scott Barlow to make it much closer.
The Royals were 7-for-10 with RISP yesterday, while the Tigers were 3-for-14, yet Detroit still scored 10 runs. It’s definitely a game of sequencing.
Rodriguez has a 2.70 ERA with a 3.43 xERA and a 3.28 FIP for the season, but this will be just his third start since coming back from a finger tendon injury. In two starts, he’s allowed seven runs on nine hits in nine innings with a 14/2 K/BB ratio. I picked against him last Friday against the Mariners and he allowed two runs on three hits, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He allowed six hard-hit balls in 11 batted ball events and four of them were barrels. One went for a double. The other three were all flyouts.
He’s had nice strikeout numbers in his two starts, but he’s also had some iffy command. On a really hot night in KC, I’d assume he’s more trustworthy than Yarbrough, but to what degree? Is it worth laying the -145 price?
Yarbrough returned on July 9 and threw six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians. He missed over two months with facial fractures after getting hit by a very scary comebacker against the A’s on May 7. He has a 5.29 ERA with a 4.63 FIP, but the contact management metrics do look like the Yarbrough of old with a 28.8% Hard Hit% against and just six barrels allowed in 104 batted ball events.
I don’t think I can lay the Tigers today. Their offensive upside is generally so limited and the Royals have a better wOBA against lefties since June 15 at .311, while the Tigers are at .302. Both bullpens are a little worn down, so it’s a war of attrition back there.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-145, 7.5)
Kenta Maeda and Luis Castillo are the slated starters here, as the teams have split the first two games of this four-game set. The Twins won 10-3 last night, as Bailey Ober settled down after a bad first inning and Bryan Woo did not.
This is a pretty interesting matchup. Maeda has a 5.50 ERA with a 3.85 xERA and a 3.46 FIP in his eight starts over 36 innings, but what really matters is what he has done since his June 23 return. In four starts, Maeda has allowed six earned runs on 15 hits with a 27/9 K/BB ratio. As we know, Seattle is prone to strike out a lot, so Maeda could be in line for a good outing if he can keep up the swings and misses.
On the other hand, Maeda, who walked four in his July 14 start after a 10-day layoff, has allowed a 48.9% Hard Hit% in these four starts and that number is 58.3% in his last three starts. So, he’s gotten some swing and miss, but hasn’t exactly located all that well on the balls that have been put into play. It’s kind of a boom or bust look from pitch-to-pitch and that kind of variance really scares me.