MLB schedule today has 13 games
Wednesday’s slate is almost exclusively full of day games, as 12 of the 13 games will start at 4:10 p.m. or earlier. As a result, that meant a lot of prep work the night before in order to get the article out as early as possible on game day. Living in Las Vegas definitely has its benefits, but slates full of day games in MLB would not fit that description.
Anyway, I started overnight and finished early to get thoughts out there on as many games as possible, which will also be the case on Thursday with seven games at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier. (Tracking sheet)
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Here are some thoughts on the April 5 card (odds from DraftKings):
Chicago Cubs (-115, 8.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Stro Show lived up to his nickname on Opening Day, as Marcus Stroman fired six shutout innings with eight strikeouts against three walks. Despite a bevy of ground balls, Stroman only allowed three hits to the 23 batters that he faced. Only four of 12 balls were hit hard and nine of them were ground balls. The only fly ball he allowed was a pop up. He couldn’t really have been any sharper against the Brewers.
The Reds are swinging some pretty decent bats in the early going, but a guy like Stroman stays off the barrel and keeps the ball down, so Great American Ball Park doesn’t really come into the equation quite as much in his case. Obviously I’m skeptical of any extreme ground ball guy early in the season, but Stroman didn’t have any issues in that first start and really buried his sinker deep in the zone.
Cincinnati will send Hunter Greene to the bump here after a rocky first outing. He allowed three runs on five hits and walked three over 3.1 innings of work. He did strike out eight of the 18 batters that he faced, but had issues after turning the lineup over. He struck out five of the first nine batters he faced, but gave up a double, a homer and two walks the second time through before exiting the game.
The homer was an issue for Greene last season, as he gave up 24 long balls in 125.2 innings of work. Rain threatens this game and so does the wind, as it could be a really challenging day to be an outfielder. The wind will be blowing in from right field at a good clip, which may ultimately help Greene. I considered the Cubs, but it’s going to be a weird weather day and who knows if this game even gets played.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 9)
Bryce Elder will make the start for Atlanta on Wednesday, as the Braves have really had to alter their early-season rotation with the injury to Max Fried. They kept Jared Shuster on the roster to start against the Cardinals and then shipped him off so that Dylan Dodd could get a turn. Now it will be Elder, who had a 3.17 ERA and a 3.78 FIP in 54 innings of work last season at the MLB level. He also had a 4.46 ERA and a 4.45 FIP in 105 innings at Triple-A.
Elder allowed four runs on five hits in his Triple-A debut this season before being notified that he’d be joining the big league club. At least he throws right-handed, which gives him a better chance against the Cardinals, but he’s still a fringy Major League pitcher at this stage of his development.
Miles Mikolas had a rough season debut for the Cardinals with five runs allowed on 10 hits in 3.1 innings against the Blue Jays. He struck out six and didn’t walk anybody, but gave up quite a bit of hard contact with a 50% Hard Hit% and two barrels. Mikolas is a strike-thrower with low walk rates, but he has to stay off the barrel to be successful because he doesn’t rack up a lot of punchies. He only had 153 in 202.1 innings last season. His spring was altered by being a member of the WBC roster for Team USA, so the struggles against the Blue Jays weren’t terribly shocking for a guy whose margins are pretty thin based on command.
The margins are pretty thin here against the Braves as well, but I’m not sure what kind of start Elder is going to give Atlanta. I’m also shocked at the amount of offense at Busch Stadium so far this season, but I guess the three teams to have played there are pretty good at hitting.
The winds are also blowing out at around 15 mph today on a warm, humid day, so it should be another good day for hitting.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 8)
There were some aces that had rough Opening Day starts and Corbin Burnes was one of them. The pitching conditions weren’t ideal in Chicago, but they seemed to affect Burnes way more than Stroman, as the 2021 Cy Young winner allowed four runs on four hits with three walks and three strikeouts over 23 batters faced. Burnes didn’t allow a ton of hard contact, but he wasn’t sharp and his velocity was definitely down a bit.
His cutter was still sharp and he had some spin rate increases, in spite of the cold weather. He allowed 10 batted balls on the cutter and just one single. It was his slider that he didn’t really have a feel for and he rarely threw his curveball. I’d like to think that a start in the controlled environment of Miller Park would allow him to use all of his pitches and get back on track a bit, but you never know.
Burnes draws a good Mets lineup that puts a lot of balls in play. He only had nine whiffs in 41 swings with the increased spin rates, so he just didn’t have much control in that and that’ll be something to watch here. My guess is that it was just tough to get a grip on the ball on Opening Day, but it may be something more.
David Peterson worked around a lot of traffic to throw five innings of one-run ball for the Mets in his 2023 debut. He scattered eight hits with five strikeouts and a walk. The only run he allowed was a solo homer and he didn’t allow a lot of hard-hit contact, but balls found holes. Fortunately for him, the Marlins were just 1-for-6 with RISP and just 3-for-11 with men on base.
Peterson had a strong 2022 with a 3.83 ERA and a 3.64 FIP. He’s a guy that slants towards the ground ball side, which does allow him to keep the ball in the park at a decent rate, but could obviously hurt him with the shift ban. That being said, avoiding the home run is a good way to stave off bad starts against the Brewers, who ranked in the top five in homers last season and were fourth in home runs hit at home.
I don’t know if I see a big edge on this game, but it is probably one the cheaper lines we’ll see on Burnes against a non-elite starting pitcher.
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-180, 7.5)
Clear your schedule for this one. Jacob deGrom makes his second start for the Rangers, but Baltimore prospect Grayson Rodriguez will make his MLB debut. Maybe there was some residual disappointment from Rodriguez, who gave up two earned runs (three total) in four innings with two strikeouts and four walks in his Triple-A Opening Day start, but the 23-year-old should be fully focused for his first crack in the bigs.
In 69.2 innings at Triple-A last season, Rodriguez posted a 2.20 ERA with a 2.04 FIP and 97 strikeouts against 21 walks. Rodriguez was named the 17th overall prospect for FanGraphs coming into the season and owns a 2.49 ERA over 296 minor league innings with 421 strikeouts against 102 walks. For what it’s worth, he went into Spring Training with an inside track on making the rotation, but he allowed 12 earned runs (15 total) over 15.1 innings in Grapefruit League play.
There will be inconsistencies at the start, but the raw stuff is pretty special with upper 90s cheddar and maybe the best changeup in the minors. Last year’s injury-plagued season saw a downturn in his velocity, but the hope is that better health will bring a return to prospect prominence. For betting purposes, he’s likely going to be held to around 75 pitches, so keep that in mind.
deGrom struck out seven of the 17 batters he faced in his first start, but he allowed five runs on six hits. He only allowed three hard-hit balls, but two were barrels, including the homer. For some reason, deGrom was really fastball-dependent in that first start, even though he threw a first-pitch strike to 13 of the 17 guys he faced. He threw 64% fastballs, which was well above last season’s output, as he threw fewer sliders than usual and virtually no changeups. Maybe he just didn’t have a feel for those pitches.
He gave up the 103.4 mph home run to Bohm, but the other hits he allowed (all extra-base hits) were 99.2 mph (.770 xBA), 61.4 mph (.560 BA), 69 mph (.140 BA), 91.7 mph (.380 xBA), 80.5 mph (.760 xBA), so he didn’t really allow a lot of hard contact, but he got pretty unlucky as to where balls landed, especially the ones that became triples.
No play here, but triple digits will be happening a lot on the radar gun and this one should be fun. I don’t think Rodriguez and a taxed Orioles pen are worth it to go against deGrom.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-255, 7.5)
Anybody remember when the Tigers swept the Astros in Houston back in 2021? The final game of that series took the Tigers back up to .500 at 6-6. They were 3-18 over the next 21 games. I don’t know if that will happen this season or not, but Detroit can get to 3-3 with a win here and another big underdog cash. The Astros bullpen struggled again and Matt Manning was good enough to keep pace with Framber Valdez to give his team a chance to at least take down the series victory on Tuesday.
It will be up to southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez to set the tone on Wednesday. He gave up three runs on three hits with five strikeouts and a couple walks against the Rays in his first start. He was limited to 17 starts last season after missing about three months. He worked 91 innings with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.43 FIP. He was a really solid pitcher for the most part in Boston, but his Tigers tenure certainly started off a little slowly last year.
The odd thing for Rodriguez is that he was really good against righties, holding them to a .297 wOBA in 311 plate appearances. Lefties are the ones who did a lot of damage with a .393 wOBA in 80 PA. He didn’t have the same strikeout stuff in 2022 after posting a 27.4% K% in 2021, as he fell to 18.4%. His SwStr% dropped to 7.5% after four straight seasons of 11.1% or higher. If he bounces back this season, he should be a solid starter, as his track record speaks for itself.
Cristian Javier gets the call for Houston here after allowing three runs on eight hits in five innings to open the year against the White Sox. That should have been a pretty good matchup for him and he did have six strikeouts, but he had a good bit of bad luck on balls in play. Javier had 19 swings and misses out of 53 swings, so the stuff was just fine. Javier tired late and allowed three straight doubles, including batted balls of 108.9 and 98.5 mph.
Selfishly, I’ll hope that E-Rod gets knocked around a little bit here because I don’t have a bet on the game, but his velocity was back to its 2021 numbers and he threw his changeup a lot more, which is his bread-and-butter pitch. The spin rates looked good and he seemed to be more comfortable heading into this season. I think he’ll be back to being a solid pitcher. If he spins a good one here, he may lose a little value going forward, but I see some really encouraging signs.
Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8) at Oakland Athletics
Hunter Gaddis and Kyle Muller are the slated starters for getaway day action at the Coliseum. Cleveland will have Thursday off and host the home opener against the Mariners on Friday. The A’s will hit the road for Tampa and then play four games in Baltimore.
Gaddis had a rough one against the Mariners, as he allowed four runs on five hits with four strikeouts and a walk over 3.2 innings. He only allowed four hard-hit balls in 12 batted ball events, but generated very little swing and miss and didn’t really fool anybody. The Guardians have limited options right now with Triston McKenzie hurt and some service time considerations with Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, but Gaddis really isn’t a MLB-caliber pitcher at this time. At least not as a starter. The stuff might play a little in relief.
Gaddis gave up 15 runs on 15 hits in 7.1 innings last season, but he faced the Astros and White Sox, so the three teams he has faced are clearly a lot better than the A’s, but I’m skeptical of him against pretty much anybody.
Muller’s debut with the A’s was a good one, as he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. The Guardians were a bottom-five offense against lefties last season and time will tell if they’re better this season. They got after Robbie Ray, but it turns out he was hurt. They struggled with JP Sears last night. Muller also had a rather inauspicious MLB stint in 2022, but he was solid in Triple-A with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.52 FIP over 134.2 innings of work.
I think the A’s are worth a look here. If Gaddis struggles, I think he’s going to be out there to wear one. The Guardians have played a ton of close games early in the season here and have had to use their bullpen a lot. Xzavion Curry is the de facto long man and he threw 56 pitches on Monday night to bail out Zach Plesac. Cleveland’s bullpen situation is dicey. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Enyel de los Santos have pitched four times in six days, with Karinchak having thrown back-to-back days. Emmanuel Clase’s velocity is down and he’s pitched three of the last four, as has Eli Morgan.
Oakland’s bullpen usage is a lot more spread out. I also think Muller has a little bit higher upside than Gaddis. I wish Cleveland would’ve won last night, as the loss may keep them more focused on a getaway day, but the A’s are worth the short underdog gamble in my opinion.
Pick: A’s +110
Los Angeles Angels (-170, 7) at Seattle Mariners
We’ve got a Shohei Ohtani alert in Seattle, as the world’s best baseball player takes the mound for his second start of 2023. Ohtani went six innings with 10 strikeouts in a dazzling effort against the A’s on Opening Day, only for the bullpen to blow it in a 2-1 loss. Ohtani did walk three, but only allowed two hits and sat with an average fastball of 98.4 mph. He only allowed two batted balls of 95+ mph and even managed to dominate while throwing a first-pitch strike to less than 50% of opposing batters.
Ohtani’s task is a lot more difficult against a much better Mariners bunch, but he’s one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball now that his UCL troubles are behind him. He worked 166 innings last season with a 2.33 ERA and a 2.40 FIP over 28 starts. He allowed three or fewer runs in 24 of those 28 starts. Even in two of his worst starts, he had 11 K in 6.1 innings against the Braves while allowing six runs and 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Blue Jays with five runs allowed. In that start against the Braves, he allowed all six runs when the wheels fell off in the seventh.
The M’s will send Chris Flexen to the hill after he saved the bullpen in last week’s 9-4 loss to Cleveland. Flexen worked four innings with one run allowed on four hits, but he walked three and gave up quite a bit of loud contact. I’ve never really been a big Flexen guy because he pitches to a lot of contact, which could be even more hurtful given the rule changes for MLB. Last season, he even had an elevated walk rate and wound up being very lucky with a 3.73 ERA and a 4.49 FIP. His 4.62 xERA and 5.04 xFIP were also indicators that he outperformed his true talent level.
Flexen had a velocity decrease last season and was another half-tick lower per Statcast from that during his relief appearance. He allowed a 97.2 mph exit velocity on the seven fastballs that were put in play and his spin rates were down across the board. There really isn’t much to like about his profile. He also had reverse platoon splits last season, as righties hit .275/.324/.479 with a .345 wOBA, whereas lefties only batted .221/.306/.329 with a .281 wOBA. That should bode well for some of the Angels' better hitters and I trust Ohtani against anybody.
We saw a pretty sizable move overnight and this morning to drive Ohtani and the Angels up in price. I still think a 1st 5 run line is too much to pass up since the Angels should be a good lineup against guys like Flexen. For a 1st 5 run line, the line is -0.5, so the Angels must be winning by at least a run after the 1st 5, as opposed to the straight run line price, where a tie game means a push.