MLB schedule today has 15 games
We’ve got a 15-game card for Tuesday, as the MLB regular season keeps inching closer to the finish line. I had a big, long, philosophical intro typed out regarding Nick Chubb’s injury last night, but decided to shelf that and just focus on getting to the games that are on the betting board in hopes of finding some plays that make sense.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the September 19 card (odds from DraftKings):
New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-155, 8)
We start with the Mets and Marlins, as Joey Lucchesi and Braxton Garrett square off and Miami lays a pretty sizable number. A little bit of interest seems to have come in on the Mets. Garrett owns a 2.36 ERA with a 3.56 FIP over his last nine starts covering 49.2 innings of work. He does have an 82.1% LOB% with a low K%, so maybe that’s the reason why. The Mets also won yesterday to snap Miami’s winning streak off of a sweep of the Braves.
Lucchesi was solid against the D-Backs last week with seven innings and zero earned runs. He gave up an unearned run and walked three with two strikeouts. He has a 2.83 ERA with a 4.49 FIP in his 35 innings of work this season, but hasn’t made more than two MLB starts since May 13. Nothing from me here, but let’s see if Garrett’s regression does hit. Or if Lucchesi’s does. Or both.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-218, 9)
Mostly just mentioning this game because Spencer Strider is on the hill and is a massive favorite for a Braves bunch that has not looked the same for a little while now. Strider also has been dealing with an illness recently, but is going to make the start. He allowed one run on four hits over seven excellent innings last time out against the Phillies, but had allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in his two starts prior to that.
The Braves do draw left-hander Cristopher Sanchez in this one, but this is actually a piggyback with Sanchez and Lorenzen, so the Phillies will throw a southpaw and then a righty at Atlanta. Sanchez may be wearing down a bit and Lorenzen seems to be doing the same, so asking for 3-4 innings from each guy makes sense. Sanchez did strike out 10 Braves over 7.1 innings last time out and has a 3.40 ERA with a 4.03 FIP, so the numbers are solid, but the Phillies are trying to protect their arms as much as possible.
To me, this is less about Sanchez and more about Lorenzen, who allowed four runs on five hits to the Braves last time out in five innings. He’s allowed 26 runs over his last five starts and hasn’t pitched in eight days, so the Phillies will hope that a little downtime and a piggyback role will help him get back on track.
The sportsbooks are aware of the setup, as Sanchez’s K prop is only 3.5, a number he has gone over with regularity, but this is an example of why you need to be vigilant with the news. He still may go over that, but piggyback implies maybe 3-4 innings for Sanchez, so he’s not out there going six or seven innings. I think a lot of people will see that line and think it’s low, but there is a reason why.
Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals
Yesterday was cause for celebration for the Cardinals in a season where they haven’t had much to celebrate. Adam Wainwright threw seven shutout innings to get his 200th win. There will be a strong sentiment in going against the Cardinals today and moving forward. Getting Waino to 200 was really the only objective the rest of the way. There aren’t enough games left to finish .500 or better. Maybe playing spoiler gets them excited, but I’m not sure.
Trevor Megill will open for Colin Rea and Drew Rom will get the start for the Cardinals. The Brewers properly leveraged the opener/bulk concept with Rea last time out, as he allowed one run over 4.2 innings in relief. Megill went a scoreless inning to get things started. He has a 3.13 ERA with a 1.90 FIP on the season, so he should be a useful opener again in this spot. Rea has a 4.89 ERA with a 5.01 FIP, but the purpose of the opener is to avoid the top of the order to begin the game, so it’s supposed to help a team extend the staff a bit.
Money has also come in on the Brewers today because Rom has allowed 17 runs on 27 hits in 22.2 innings of work with an 18/13 K/BB ratio. He’s making his second start at Busch Stadium, where things have cooled off and maybe the bats will do so as well, but I still wouldn’t call him a trustworthy arm.
I understand the anti-Cardinals sentiment today. I’m not sure I can follow suit with Rea’s subpar numbers, even if the opener concept could provide a boost for him.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-148, 8.5)
Some sites don’t have a starter listed for the Giants today, but Alex Cobb was pushed back to line up with Zac Gallen here on Tuesday. Cobb hasn’t pitched in eight days and has only pitched twice since August 29, as he got some extra time after his near-no-hitter on August 29. He gave up four runs on six hits in a shortened start against the Padres and then allowed two unearned runs over five innings against Cleveland on the 11th.
The bigger story here is Gallen, who wowed everybody with that complete game shutout against the Cubs on the 8th and then followed it up by allowing seven runs on eight hits in five innings against the Mets. Gallen has allowed a ton of hard contact this season and particularly in the second half, yet he has a 3.50 ERA with a 3.33 FIP.
He had that CGSHO, yet has still allowed 18 runs over his last four starts, as the chickens have come to roost on all that hard contact. The tough part is that a lot of those signs are very much present and accounted for, but you never fully know when they’re going to come through. Before allowing six runs and four homers to the Dodgers on August 28, Gallen allowed two runs on 14 hits over 18.1 innings with a 60.9% Hard Hit% and a 17.4% Barrel% over his previous three starts.