MLB schedule today has 17 games
We’ve got 17 games on the betting board today thanks to a couple of doubleheaders, with one in Boston and one in Chicago. Two games were rained out on Monday and will immediately be played today between teams that are not really playing for anything, so it feels like an unnecessarily long day at the yard.
But that also means we have a ton of stuff to talk about with today’s games. I noticed that some of the huge underdogs I’ve been skipping over have been doing well, but it’s not like I would have had the wherewithal or the reasoning to take any of them. It’s just a sign that sometimes the inflated prices being slapped on teams at this time of the year aren’t always worth the squeeze. They’ll still win more often than not, but remember that a -300 favorite is still going to lose roughly 25% of the time based on the implied probability. If you can catch those at the right time, it’s a big bankroll booster, but won’t always be the case.
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Here are some thoughts on the September 12 card (odds from DraftKings):
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-148, 9)
We start with a rather bland game in the Steel City between the Nationals and Pirates. It will be Joan Adon and Bailey Falter in this one, as the Pirates look to get one back after losing yesterday in a favorite role to Patrick Corbin. I will say this, both of these teams are still plenty invested in how the season turns out. The Nationals hit a rough patch, but keep playing hard and the Pirates are doing the same.
This is a pretty simple handicap, though. I have no interest in backing Adon and this is a pretty big favorite role for Falter. The Nationals are only 25th in wOBA at .288 and have just a 78 wRC+ against lefties since August 1, so they’ve definitely fallen off in terms of their production in that split, but it’s still a big number for a below average MLB pitcher.
Atlanta Braves (-130, 8.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves and Phillies will battle it out this week, as Atlanta heads north to the Keystone State for the final time. Max Fried and Zack Wheeler are the slated starters in this one, which is about what it takes for the Braves to not be a massive favorite at this point in time. They need to be facing an elite pitcher or an otherwise elite team. The Phillies are not an elite team, but are a quality bunch and Wheeler is pretty close to elite.
Wheeler comes in with a 3.49 ERA, 3.13 xERA, and a 2.93 FIP over his 170 innings of work. He’s having a better season than his ERA would indicate, but it has been coming down a little bit recently, as he has allowed just nine runs over his last five starts covering 33 innings of work. He’s getting locked in at just the right time for the Phillies and is actually getting a bit of help from the defense and the sequencing gods.
He’s allowed 16 homers this season, but just a 9.2% HR/FB%, so that’s about as good as you can hope for if you decide to pick against the Braves offense.
Since returning from injury on August 4, Fried has a 3.10 ERA with a 2.97 FIP over his 40.2 innings of work. He’s had one start with more than three runs allowed, so the baseline is quite strong here. He also has a 42/9 K/BB ratio over that span and has allowed just seven home runs.
I spoke yesterday about how offense is ticking up around the league with some bad and tired pitchers. These two don’t really fit the bill, but it doesn’t take much for these offenses to find some runs. Even though the total of 8.5 looks high here given the starting pitcher matchup, I’m not confident enough in this one staying Under the total.
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets (-112, 9.5)
I guess the play yesterday was to lay a juicier price and take the Mets for the 1st 5, as they led 3-2, but had a couple of bullpen blunders and decided that scoring three runs off of Zach Davies was enough. That’s the trouble you sometimes run into with these bad teams in September and throughout the season. They may get into position to win, but finishing it off is an altogether different story.
My level of interest in this game is about zero. Ryne Nelson is a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has a 5.30 ERA with a 5.36 xERA and a 5.07 FIP in his 130.2 innings of work. He’s wholly dependent on batted ball and sequencing luck and that is far from the kind of profile I want to attach my hard-earned money to in this racket.
Butto is making his fourth MLB start of the season, but he had a 5.93 ERA with a 5.98 FIP in 91 innings at Triple-A, so you can see precisely why I’d have no interest in backing the 25-year-old. This will be his second straight start and he did pitch well against Washington on September 6 with 6.1 innings of two-run ball, but I don’t have a high level of trust in his baseline.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers (-166, 7.5)
JT Chargois will open for Edward Cabrera and the Brewers will send out right-hander Freddy Peralta in Game 2 of this series. I guess maybe I was a little bit right about Jesus Luzardo, who got decimated in yesterday’s game, as the Brewers had a laugher and won running away. It’ll be interesting to see what they do against Cabrera today, who has a 4.56 ERA with a 3.89 xERA and a 4.48 FIP over 81 innings of work.
Cabrera just came back up from the minors and worked four shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Dodgers in a bulk role. That’s the role that he’ll assume here and he is looking to follow the momentum of that first appearance, plus the 2.22 ERA he had over 28.1 innings in the minors while getting all of his stuff figured out. He struck out 30 and walked 12 down there, but five of them came in one of his five minor league starts.
To some degree, I think the Marlins are live tonight in what should be a close, low-scoring game, but Peralta’s second half has been stellar. He’s having a good season as a whole with a 3.89 ERA and a 3.82 FIP over 150.1 innings, but he owns a 2.62 ERA with a 2.59 FIP in 58.1 innings since the Midsummer Classic.
I am worried about Peralta moving forward as the innings mount because he is a guy that has battled a lot of injuries throughout his career and this is getting to be a lot. But, I also don’t have any signs in the statistical profile to support my theory, other than it happens to a lot of pitchers. He wasn’t quite as sharp last time out against the Pirates and allowed three runs for just the third time in his last 10 starts. His four strikeouts were the fewest in that span. His velo was down as well and his SwStr% was really low, along with a low Chase Rate.
Peralta’s fastball had its lowest amount of horizontal movement in a start this season and second-lowest vertical movement. I do wonder if maybe, just maybe, we’re getting to a point where the quality of his stuff is declining a little bit. Shop around because you can find this price much higher in the market, but I think the Marlins are worth an underdog look tonight.
Pick: Marlins +140