MLB schedule today has 15 games
All 30 teams are in action and all 15 games are late as we look at the Tuesday betting board around Major League Baseball. The card features a handful of extremely large favorites, but the bulk of the slate looks to be rather competitive as we look at five games in the NL, five games in the AL, and five interleague matchups.
Does it feel like offense has ticked up now that it’s gotten a bit warmer? I haven’t run an update in a few days, but let’s examine the data quickly and see if there are any signs of an increase.
Season: .248/.320/.409, .318 wOBA, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 12.3% HR/FB%
Since May 20: .248/.319/.415, .319 wOBA, .297 BABIP, 22.9% K%, 8.6% BB%, 12.7% HR/FB%
Not really. We’re seeing a few more home runs, which is more of a May trend (12.5% HR/FB%) than anything else (12.2% HR/FB% in March/April). What I find really interesting is to not see many spikes with all the call-ups and depth starters that are playing a bigger role with all the injuries around the league.
Plenty of games to get to, so let’s get going with those and hopefully find some good bets to make.
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Here are some thoughts on the May 30 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (-135, 8.5)
Ryan Weathers and Sandy Alcantara get us started with this matchup down in South Florida, where a lot will be happening in the next couple weeks with both the NBA and NHL Finals. These two teams were idle on the Memorial Day holiday, as the Padres had to travel a long way and the Marlins were coming back from a three-city, 10-day road trip out west.
Weathers has made two starts since his recall and allowed nine runs on 10 hits in 11.2 innings of work. He has seven strikeouts against six walks and eight of the nine runs are earned. For the season, he has a 3.94 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 29.2 innings of work across five starts and two relief efforts. He does well to limit hard contact, but he’s got such a bad K/BB ratio that his decreased margin for error often trips him up.
In this start, he draws a second straight top-10 offense against lefties and even the Dodgers are all the way up to 12th now, so it is another really tough assignment for him. The Marlins are fifth in wOBA at .347 and have a 119 wRC+ in that split. The interesting part to me is that they still have a .337 wOBA at home in a park that typically suppresses power, so that speaks to their prowess against lefties.
Alcantara has still been a bit hit or miss this season, but he’s back in the friendly confines of Marlins Park and he’s still generating swinging strikes at an elite rate with a SwStr% of 13.4%. Putting it all together consistently has been a challenge, but his 4.86 ERA with a 3.81 FIP suggests positive regression and his 4.25 xERA does the same, even if he hasn’t been nearly as sharp as the guy we saw last season.
One of the big problems for Alcantara has been a 61.5% LOB%, which is over 17% lower than where it was last season. The Padres rank 24th in wOBA against righties, even with a league-high 12.1% BB%. They likely won’t get the benefit of drawing walks against Alcantara, whose 7.6% BB% remains one of his better stats for this season.
He has only allowed a .273 wOBA at home in 33.1 innings over 135 plate appearances this season after allowing a .236 wOBA in 121 IP and 458 PA last season at Marlins Park. I would anticipate a good effort from him and Weathers is a guy I can’t really trust against lineups that hit lefties well.
The Padres still really aren’t scoring with 3.88 R/G in May and they rank 25th in wOBA this month and 19th over the last 14 days. I’ll take my chances with Alcantara against a lineup like that.
Pick: Marlins -135
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-130, 8.5)
NL East rivals match up here with a battle between Ranger Suarez and Kodai Senga in Queens. This will be just the fourth start of the season for Suarez and, if the pattern holds, he’ll give up six runs. He’s allowed 3, 4, and 5 runs in his starts dating back to his May 13 return. He’s only given up one homer and has had a lot of bad luck with a .444 BABIP and a 48.5% LOB%. His Hard Hit% is only 29.7%, so the .444 BABIP really is a byproduct of a good bit of misfortune.
The Mets have a pretty pedestrian offense against lefties. While their 105 wRC+ is heavily park-adjusted, their .319 wOBA only ranks 19th. They’ve got a .282 BABIP in that split, which is definitely pulling their numbers down. If Suarez continues to have bad BABIP luck, then this could be a spot where things turn around a bit for the Mets offense.
Senga owns a 3.94 ERA with a 4.31 FIP in his 48 innings of work. The “box of chocolates” right-hander has allowed 21 runs on 42 hits with 61 strikeouts and 31 walks. I call him that because you never know what you’re going to get, as he’s got Game Scores at FanGraphs ranging from 74 to 30, as he doesn’t work deep into many games and has a lot of deep counts with the strikeouts and walks.
The Phillies haven’t seen him yet and that’s a bummer because I’m curious to see how teams do facing him a second time. Miami is the only team to do it and that happened on April 2 and 8. I’m curious how Senga and other debutants this season fare when facing a lineup for a second, third, or fourth time.
I don’t really like anything here. The way Suarez is pitching, this line might be a little cheap on the Mets. Also, the Phillies are ninth in wOBA against righties in what is decidedly their better offensive split, though their BABIP keeps falling and is down to .332. Tough game to handicap I think.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-250, 8.5)
Since his epic shutout streak ended on May 2, Zac Gallen has allowed 13 earned runs on 30 hits over 29 innings of work. He’s got a 4.03 ERA with a 2.56 FIP, but the more concerning part to me is that Gallen only has five strikeouts against six walks in his last two starts against the Pirates and Diamondbacks.
Gallen also has a 49.5% Hard Hit% in his five May starts, so the command profile is on the fritz a little bit heading into this start against the Rockies. His velocity looks fine and is actually up a bit during the month and it does look like the Diamondbacks possibly isolated a minor mechanical issue prior to his last start that led to increased spin rates across the board, including a nice spike on his cutter after hitting a season-low in rpm in that ugly start against the Pirates. He didn’t really generate more whiffs or anything, so we’ll see if he does here against the Rockies.
For the year, Gallen’s been great with a 2.97 ERA and a 2.10 FIP, but that stretch here in May is something to watch, especially when you consider that he had 51 strikeouts in 37.2 innings in March/April compared to just 24 in 29 innings this month.
Kyle Freeland is having a fine season with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.35 FIP in his 58.1 innings of work. His 4.15 xERA is solid for a low-strikeout pitcher and he’s done a good job of mostly limiting hard contact. The Diamondbacks are a top-five offense against righties, but rank 20th in wOBA against lefties, so Freeland has the chance to pitch pretty well in this outing. Arizona also has a .324 BABIP against lefties and still boasts just a 97 wRC+. They don’t walk much, which wouldn’t matter against Freeland anyway, but he could be in line for a good effort. He’s allowed 17 of his 30 runs in two of his 11 starts, with one at home against the Pirates and the other on the road against the Rangers.
Gallen’s prices are typically pretty high and there may very well be a bit of value in taking the Rockies here given the right-hander’s recent returns, but I’m not very eager to back Colorado on the road.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (-145, 8.5)
The Giants scored two touchdowns on Monday to bludgeon the Pirates by a 14-4 count for a decisive loser in the lone play of the day. This series continues with Johan Oviedo for the Buccos and John Brebbia as the opener for the Giants. With Tristan Beck optioned to the minors, we should see one or both of Sean Manaea or Jakob Junis here. Manaea threw 22 pitches on Thursday and Junis threw 45 pitches, so both guys are well-rested for bulk relief duties in this one.
This will be the fourth start for Brebbia, who actually went two innings in a relief appearance last time out. He, too, hasn’t pitched since the 25th, so maybe the Giants will look to get two frames out of him before turning it over to the other relievers. Brebbia has a 3.68 ERA with a 2.01 FIP in his 22 innings of work with 31 strikeouts against seven walks, so he’s been very solid this season.
Manaea has not been with a 6.61 ERA, 6.55 xERA, and a 5.80 FIP over 32.2 innings of work. He’s got a lot of strikeouts, but also a lot of walks, a lot of homers, and a lot of hard contact allowed. He’s allowed a 43% Hard Hit% and a 16.3% Barrel% across 86 batted ball events. He’s struck out 28.9% of opposing batters, but also walked 12.5% of them.
Junis has a 4.13 ERA with a 4.93 xERA and a 4.84 FIP in 28.1 innings of work. He’s right-handed and Manaea is left-handed, so Gabe Kapler can just kind of plug and play where he wants to use them. Junis has really increased his strikeouts this season while also seeing a big uptick in fastball velocity, so he could be more of a weapon moving forward. He’s only allowed two earned runs over his last 12 innings.
Oviedo has a 4.70 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 4.11 FIP in his 53.2 innings of work for the Pirates. He’s walked way too many batters with a 10.1% BB% and hasn’t struck out enough hitters. After starting the season with five straight double-digit SwStr% games, Oviedo has five straight games in single digits and four of them are below 8%. In that span, Oviedo has also allowed a 50.6% Hard Hit% in starts against the Nationals, Blue Jays, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. He allowed 14 runs on 19 hits in the first two starts in that stretch, but has only allowed five runs on 12 hits in the last three, despite a 46.9% Hard Hit%.
The Giants are actually 11-3 over their last 14 games, so they’re playing quite well, something I probably should have taken into account more yesterday. Collectively, the Giants bullpen has an 0.82 ERA with a 2.83 FIP over the last 14 days, so they’ve really figured out how to leverage those guys.
It’s a bit of a price to pay, but I like the Giants today. Their offense is very dangerous when they aren’t striking out and Oviedo’s early-season K% is not anything like what he has right now. His K% is down to 17.8% in May and just 15.9% in his last six starts. As long as the Giants are making contact, they’re doing damage.
The Pirates have scored 3.08 R/G this month and facing a variety of different arms today may not be what they need to improve.
Pick: Giants -145
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-320, 9)
The Dodgers are an overwhelming favorite behind Tony Gonsolin in this one against the Nationals. They shook off a really tough situational spot yesterday to come away with an easy 6-1 dub and they’ll look for another no-sweat game in this one.
Gonsolin has a 1.82 ERA, but a 4.70 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP, so there are a lot of regression signs in the profile for him. His K% is only 19.7% and his BB% is elevated at 9.4%. He’s allowed a 36.6% Hard Hit% on the season. His 10.8% SwStr% does suggest a better K%, but the Nationals are one of the league’s top teams at avoiding strikeouts, so it may not happen today.
Jake Irvin battled his way through four innings, but it wasn’t pretty last time out. He walked four guys and gave up a couple of hits, including a homer. He’s allowed 14 runs on 13 hits and nine walks in his last three starts across 11.1 innings of work. He has a 5.32 ERA with a 5.92 FIP in 22 innings over with a 16% BB%. That’s probably not a great thing going into a matchup against the Dodgers.
Easy to just leave this one alone.
Texas Rangers (-130, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
Martin Perez and Alex Faedo are the listed starters for this one as we work our way through the AL slate for this evening. Faedo has a 4.15 ERA with a 3.06 xERA and a 4.99 FIP on the season, as he’s given up six homers in four starts, but he’s racked up a spectacular 22/1 K/BB ratio in 21.2 innings of work. Faedo struck out 10 White Sox last time out in a game where I took the under instead of the Tigers and Lucas Giolito decided throwing strikes was optional.
The six barrels that Faedo has allowed obviously stand out given the six home runs, but he’s only allowed a 32.2% Hard Hit% on the season over 59 batted ball events. He’s given up three homers to lefties and three to righties, but he’s allowed just a .254 wOBA to lefties and a .262 wOBA to righties. This, though, is a big step up in class against the Rangers offense. He’s faced the Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, and White Sox to this point.
Texas is third overall in wOBA and third in wOBA vs. RHP, however, the Rangers are only 20th in road wOBA vs. RHP. They lead the league at .367 at home, but have a .311 mark on the road. I would expect their offense to tumble a bit when the roof needs to be closed in Arlington every day because it’s so oppressively hot outside.
It would be cool if the Tigers offense had any redeeming qualities. They suck against righties and suck against lefties and it makes it very hard to bet on them, hence the Giolito fiasco last week. One thing that they do pretty effectively is draw walks, so we’ll see if they do that against Perez today. Among all the problems Perez has, issuing walks isn’t really one of them.
However, Perez is a big regression candidate in my eyes with a 3.83 ERA, 4.61 xERA, and 4.58 FIP on the year. His K% is down to 16.7%, yet he’s still running a 79.7% LOB%. His 37.4% Hard Hit% is up nearly 3% from last season and he’s got a .330 BABIP against, which seems quite fair. He had allowed eight homers in eight starts before shutting down the Rockies and Pirates in his last two efforts.
I got close to taking the Tigers, but their offensive upside is so low that it’s tough to trust them in a lot of situations. I’d have needed a bit better price, though I really do like Faedo.
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (-140, 9)
Cal Quantrill and Kyle Gibson square off in what could be one of the last starts for Quantrill, who I honestly think could be nasty in a pen role with a couple extra ticks on that cutter. With Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie working their way back into the Cleveland rotation, Quantrill will be the second odd man out after Hunter Gaddis goes to the pen or Columbus. I’d honestly put Gaddis in there over James Karinchak right now, but you don’t care about my Guardians roster moves.
Quantrill just doesn’t miss enough bats right now to navigate lineups multiple times. His K% is down to 12.8%, leading to a 5.01 FIP with his 4.75 ERA. The right-hander only has 31 strikeouts against 18 walks in 55 innings of work. On the whole, Quantrill has been able to survive as a starter because he’s usually induced a lot of weak contact. This season, he’s up around league average and that isn’t good enough. He’s actually allowed more than that in his last three starts, so an Orioles offense that merely grades as average against righties could have success today.
His 6.8% SwStr% doesn’t produce enough margin for error and he’s actually walked more batters with men on base than he has struck out, so he’s created a lot of his own problems. What’s crazy is that he’s actually held opposing batters to a .293 wOBA in 30 innings this month, but has still struggled.
I certainly don’t like Gibson’s profile either, as he has a 3.82 ERA with a 4.74 xERA and a 4.18 FIP in his 66 innings of work. He, too, doesn’t miss a lot of bats and has a Hard Hit% higher than Quantrill’s at 40.7%. He’s allowed four or more runs in four of his 11 starts, but has also allowed one or fewer runs in four of them. His K% is a bit better at 16.2% than Quantrill’s, but this game is just going to feature a ton of balls in play and will feature a high-variance environment as a result.
Brutal game to try and bet. I can tell you that I’d trust Baltimore’s pen way more than Cleveland’s right now, especially with Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista rested.
Minnesota Twins (-115, 8.5) at Houston Astros
Joe Ryan and the Twins are short favorites over Brandon Bielak and the Astros for this Tuesday matchup in Houston. Ryan has been one of the AL’s top pitchers this season and Bielak shows a lot of negative regression signs, so it isn’t a big surprise to see this line where it is
Ryan has a 2.21 ERA with a 2.36 xERA and a 2.38 FIP, so his numbers are right where they should be based on his performance. He’s been stellar with a 28.9% K% and a 4.1% BB%. He’s allowed a little bit of hard contact with a 42.2% Hard Hit%, but he’s only allowed five barrels on the season. Ryan has allowed more than three runs just once in his 10 starts with a 70/10 K/BB ratio and only four homers allowed.
The one start with four runs came against the Astros and he allowed a Yordan Alvarez grand slam in the third inning. To this point, that home run represents nearly 27% of the earned runs he has allowed. The Astros are moving up the ranks offensively, so their full-season numbers don’t really tell the whole story. They are 22nd in wOBA against righties, but rank fourth in wOBA overall at .346 over the last 14 days.
Bielak has a 3.55 ERA with a 5.99 xERA and a 5.69 FIP in his 25.1 innings of work. He’s running a 91.5% LOB% to this point with a 20.2% K% in four starts and one relief appearance. He just gave up three homers last start against the Brewers and gave up four runs over 6.2 innings of work. He’s allowed 30 hits overall and a .333 BABIP, to go along with five homers that don’t count towards BABIP.
The other thing is that Bielak has allowed a 44.9% Hard Hit% and a 15.4% Barrel% in 78 batted ball events. Ironically, the appearance against the Brewers saw Bielak’s lowest HH% of the season at 38.1%, but those three barrels got him. The Twins are 12th in wOBA against righties at .322 and have a 106 wRC+.
This game basically hinges on whether or not Bielak can generate swings and misses and strikeouts. He’s got 22 K in 25.1 IP and a 10.7% SwStr%, disproportionately affected by the 19.3% SwStr% he had against the A’s on May 19. If the Twins make contact, they should hit plenty of balls hard. They are eighth in Hard Hit%, but also have the highest K% in MLB at 26.6%.
I’ll take a shot with Minnesota here. Bielak has some major Cluster Luck signs in the profile. The Astros bullpen has been worked extensively over the last few days, so Ryan Pressly and Hector Neris have worked three of the last four days and Bryan Abreu has thrown 48 pitches over the last two days.