MLB schedule today has 9 games
Nine games are on the MLB slate for Thursday, as early starts in St. Louis and Tampa get us started, followed by a slate of night games going head-to-head with Giants vs. 49ers for eyeballs. I don’t really have a ton to add that I haven’t already said about September baseball. Some teams are still really into it and other teams are not. It’s cooling off, so offense may cool off a bit as well. Keep an eye on all of the pitchers for any signs of fatigue, whether those come in the form of velo decreases or spin rate drops.
Today’s card appears to have slim pickings, as we only have one line under -130 and it comes early with the finale of the Brewers and Cardinals, but I’ll see what I find among today’s 18 teams.
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Here are some thoughts on the September 21 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 8.5)
Wade Miley and Miles Mikolas finish out this series, as the Brewers are in a position to take three of four. The Cardinals won the very emotional 200th game for Adam Wainwright, but have dropped both games since, including last night’s lifeless 8-2 loss. The Brewers got a three-run homer from Josh Donaldson in the first inning and it felt like it was over from that point.
That’s an angle to think about in some of these games moving forward. If a team without much to play for digs a hole early, they may not claw as much to get out of it as they would have earlier in the season. I’m not saying you have to lay some exorbitant moneyline price, but maybe an in-game run line pops up that makes sense.
One of the many reasons why the Cardinals have had a bad season is because Mikolas has not been himself. He’s got a 4.84 ERA with a 5.42 xERA and a 4.33 FIP. The 34-year-old has been durable again and will set a career-high in starts if he makes his next scheduled one, but his K% is down to 15.1% and his contact management metrics are the worst of his career with a 42.6% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%.
Mikolas has a 7.02 ERA with a 6.31 FIP in his last 41 innings with just 19 strikeouts and 10 homers allowed. I’m not sure I’d expect much from him today. He’s allowed a 52% Hard Hit% and a 14% Barrel% in that span and it’s only getting worse with 15 Barrels(!!!!) and a 58% HH% in three September starts.
Miley comes in with some regression signs in the profile, as he has a 3.38 ERA with a 4.92 FIP. He’s got a 3.89 ERA with a 5.83 FIP in his last eight starts over 41.2 innings. He’s only got 24 strikeouts himself in that span, so there will be a ton of balls in play in this game. The difference is he has allowed a 26% HH% and a 6.1% Barrel%.
If I had more lead time, I’d give out the Brewers as an official play, but it would be unfair to put that out there with limited eyes on it. If you do see this before game time, I think Milwaukee is a good bet.
Atlanta Braves (-265, 9) at Washington Nationals
I only mention this huge favorite role for Atlanta because they continue to struggle. They’ve lost five of six, which wouldn’t be that noteworthy of a development for most teams, but this team felt like an invincible juggernaut and they’ve gotten their backsides kicked a lot lately. Five of those six losses are by three or more runs and three of them are by six or more runs.
Maybe this is a get-right series with a four-gamer against a Nationals team that is 6-12 in September. I’m sure there will be a lot of moneyline parlay exposure on the Braves today, as there are a lot of big favorites they could be paired with. I guess we’ll see if they can do what they’re supposed to do with Max Fried on the hill against Jake Irvin.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-162, 8.5)
The other NL East vs. NL East matchup is the Mets and Phillies after Philadelphia secured a really nice series win in 11 innings yesterday over Atlanta. New York has been battling more than I expected them to, especially since they had great incentive to lose for the sake of their first-round pick placement, but the players care way less about that stuff than the front office does.
David Peterson and Ranger Suarez are the listed hurlers here, as we get five left-handed starters in the NL and one in the AL for today. There are no interleague games. Peterson rejoined the Mets rotation on August 4 and has a 4.06 ERA with a 4.69 FIP in 37.2 innings over eight starts since slotting back in. He has 45 strikeouts in that span, but has also allowed a .351 BABIP with a 47% Hard Hit% and a 10% Barrel%. The Phillies are seventh in wOBA against LHP since August 15, so they’ve fared well in that split.
The Mets are 14th over that span as they draw Suarez, who comes in with a 3.80 ERA, 4.53 xERA, and a 3.90 FIP in 113.2 innings of work. He’s thrown the ball really well in three starts since coming off the IL with six runs allowed on 11 hits in 16.1 innings with 20 strikeouts against nine walks. He’s allowed a 40% HH%, but only an average exit velo of 85.3 mph, so he’s allowed some hard contact and a lot of really weak contact.