MLB schedule today has 15 games
Happy Opening Day! The start of the 2023 MLB season is here and all 30 teams will be in action to kick off the 162-game grind that runs through October 1. There are a lot of things to think about with the start of every MLB season, but this one is different with some big rule changes that will dramatically impact the game. I wrote about the rule changes in our 2023 Baseball Betting Guide and that was also the first episode of our new VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast.
Today’s article features thoughts on almost every game for my benefit and yours. It’s good for me to write my thoughts out and process them, but I’m also looking for some early-season statistical trends we can possibly exploit, along with pitchers to have on my radar moving forward. It’s a long one and most will be early in the year.
A few other notes before I get started:
– All odds and picks listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook, but I highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines on every game – I will grade off the DK number (2022 Tracking Sheet) (2023 Tracking Sheet)
– All favorites will be tracked as X to win 1 Unit (-125 favorite would be 1.25 to win 1); all underdogs *unless specified* are 1 Unit to win X (+125 dog would be 1 to win 1.25)
– All games are ordered by rotation number (NL, AL, Interleague), NOT start time
– I limit this article to moneylines, totals and run lines, as I don’t really bet player props; Zach Cohen will be handling that in a separate article (today's article)
– Not every game discussed will have a pick; I’m most interested in sharing information, so there will be some games I break down and write about that won’t have picks. There will probably be more of these early in the season for information purposes as we all learn about the teams and pitchers
– My plan is to have the article out no later than 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT – it depends on the number of games, the number of games I write about, how much research is required, etc. My writing is very heavy with stats and information, which takes time to compile and edit. This schedule does make it tricky with day games, so I’ll do everything I can to get the write-up out in a timely fashion
– The goal is to have the VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast out no later than 3 p.m. ET/Noon PT
– I will tweet (@SkatingTripods) the article out when it is finished and posted; we don’t really have the capability for notifications on the site, so that’s the best spot to find it as quickly as possible; I’d also bookmark my page (https://www.vsin.com/news/adam-burke/) to streamline navigating the website
– The article will run Monday-Saturday – there are too many day games on Sunday and the grind of the season is a lot to do an article and a podcast every day for 187 days straight; the podcast will be Monday-Friday
Here we go, friends. Happy baseball season!
Here are some thoughts on the March 30 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 7) at Chicago Cubs
Marcus Stroman is one of many guys I will be watching early in the season because of an extremely high GB%. Last season, Stroman had a 51.7% GB% over 138.2 innings of work and that was on the low end for him, as he was north of 60% every season from 2015-18. Stroman generally profiles as a below average strikeout guy with a 20% K% for his career and a 20.9% mark last season (league average was 21.6% for starting pitchers).
Corbin Burnes is a big ground ball guy as well, but he has a lot more strikeouts and generates a lot more swing and miss than Stroman. As teams employed more shifts behind Stroman, his batting average against decreased, going from .280 in 2018 to .256 in 2019, .237 in 2021 and .233 in 2022 with a career-best .272 BABIP. With the shift ban in place, he profiles as the type of guy to be negatively impacted.
Per Baseball Savant, the defense shifted against left-handed batters in 59.4% of plate appearances in 2021 (Mets) and 63.5% in 2022 behind Stroman (Cubs). The Mets also employed shifts against righties at a 41.6% clip in 2021 with Stroman on the hill.
Similarly, though, the Brewers shifted behind Burnes at a 54.9% clip against lefties last season and a 19% clip against righties. The cold weather worries me enough about an over here to not be a player, even at 6.5, but this game is a good early-season litmus test about the shift ban and ground ball starters.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-140, 8)
Mitch Keller had his best season as a Major Leaguer with 159 innings pitched and a 3.91 ERA with a 3.88 FIP last season. Keller also had a career-high 49% GB%. By keeping the ball on the ground, he was able to offset a below average K% at 20.1% and an elevated walk rate at 8.7%. He did cut the BB% down from 10.4% the previous year, so that’s a positive for him, but I’m concerned about the sustainability of his better numbers given how the ground ball was the big equalizer.
Keller also had better numbers with men on base and men in scoring position than he did with the bases empty, despite a big K% decrease and a spike in BB%. Keller allowed a .327 wOBA with the bases empty, but then a .319 with men on and a .303 with RISP, due to BABIPs that were better with men on. Otherwise, he went from a strikeout per batter to well below that. I think he’s a guy to watch early in the season as well, though you won’t find many cheap prices to fade him or the Pirates.
Hunter Greene, like most starters early in the year, will probably go five innings or so and then exit the game. I don’t know if there’s much carryover, but Greene allowed two earned runs in 23 innings in his final four starts last season after getting healthy with 37 strikeouts against seven walks.
The Pirates had 23 guys last season with at least 50 plate appearances and 20 of them struck out at least 22.4% of the time. However, they got some experienced guys like Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen and Ji-Man Choi to replace some of the below average hitters they had. Maybe this offense will be a bit better. I’m not excited to lay -140 for the full game or 1st 5, but Keller is a guy on my list to keep an eye on as a fade candidate if we can do it at a reasonable price.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-215, 7)
I won’t be invested in the Rockies much this season, but I did want to take a second to talk about German Marquez. Marquez had a 4.95 ERA with a 4.71 FIP over 181.2 innings last year covering 31 starts. In 87.1 innings at home, he allowed a .317/.359/.563 slash with a .392 wOBA against and posted a 6.70 ERA. In 94.1 innings on the road, he allowed a .204/.288/.364 slash with a .289 wOBA and had a 3.34 ERA.
Obviously we know that Coors Field is known for offense, but Marquez’s full-season numbers really obscure that he’s been an excellent road pitcher in his career with a 3.76 ERA and a .299 wOBA against. Aside from a rough 2021, he’s been rather great since 2018 away from Denver. That’s not to say that I’m backing him here, but it is to say that context matters a lot with Marquez and he’s at least in consideration for being a play-on guy in road starts.
With Blake Snell, the story is always the same. He’s great the first two times through the order and then suddenly not the third time through. Last season, he allowed a .224 wOBA the first time through with a 1.46 ERA in 55.1 innings with just two homers allowed. He had a 4.01 ERA the second time through in 51.2 innings, but with a .309 wOBA against and a strong 3.33 FIP. Third time through? He only faced 104 batters, but allowed a .348 wOBA, including a .375 on-base percentage. He had a 6.86 ERA and saw a big drop in K% and a big spike in BB%.
“Times through the order” means the first time facing a hitter, the second time facing a hitter and then the third time. I’ll reference this a lot throughout the season, as hitters get better the more they see a pitcher and vice versa.
I got really close to going with the Rockies 1st 5 or the 1st 5 under (would’ve wanted 4, not 3.5), but Marquez is another ground ball guy and I don’t think he’ll rack up a lot of strikeouts against this Padres lineup, which was ninth in K% last season and some of last year’s high K% guys like Wil Myers and Luke Voit are no longer on the team.
New York Mets (-125, 7) at Miami Marlins
It is rare to get Max Scherzer at this price, particularly against an inferior team, but that is the pull of a guy like Sandy Alcantara. My big question for the reigning NL Cy Young winner is whether or not we see him reach into his bag of tricks and find more strikeouts. He has elite command and has really worked hard to develop elite control, but his two best seasons as a pro have come with GB% marks of 53.3% and 53.4%.
Last season, the Marlins shifted 61.4% of the time against lefties and 40.7% of the time against righties, both career highs behind Alcantara. He allowed a .270 BABIP in 2021 and a .262 BABIP last season. He’s going to allow more baserunners this season, but an increase in K% would help offset some of my worries. He had 15 K in 11.1 Spring Training innings, which doesn’t really tell me much and that Astros lineup he faced in his last outing was not MLB-caliber.
The Mets don’t strike out much. In four games against Alcantara, they had 21 strikeouts in 110 plate appearances against him (19.9%), so that was below his season average of 23.4%. Their lineup is superior in every way to what the Marlins are running out there and they’re one of the teams better-equipped to face a guy like Alcantara in my estimation.
As great as Alcantara was, Scherzer had a lower Hard Hit% against (33.9% to 38.5), easily a higher K% (30.6% to 23.4%) and he isn’t reliant on ground balls. Furthermore, he’s a fly ball guy pitching in a park that has suppressed offense throughout its history. I think this start is set up very well for Scherzer, especially against a Marlins lineup I don’t have high hopes for this season.
Another thing about Alcantara is that he only threw 45 pitches in his final Spring Training start after being away from the club to pitch in the World Baseball Classic. The likelihood that we see Alcantara’s workhorse-like ways in this first start is very low. I know the Mets pen has questions without Edwin Diaz, but the Marlins pen just doesn’t have a ton of upside to me and probably a heavier lift here.
I’ll take the short number with the Metropolitans.
Pick: Mets -125
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-170, 7.5)
A growing trend over the last couple of seasons has been to see influential money backing Zac Gallen. We’re not seeing it to the full degree here against Julio Urias and the Dodgers, but I would expect Gallen and a really popular Diamondbacks team to get a lot of love early in the year.
As I’ve talked about on air and on my podcast, the Diamondbacks are a team really well-positioned for all the rule changes. They have a lot of great defenders and put a lot of balls in play with speedy guys that can create havoc on the bases. They may have a little more pop this season as well, but they’re a small ball kind of team and that plays now in this current environment.
Urias is a tough customer and Arizona had a bottom-five offense against lefties last season, so those are two reasons for the muted action on the Snakes, but this will be a team to watch in April. Selfishly, I hope they struggle so I can get them at some cheaper prices down the line, but a lot of people I respect are high on them for a variety of reasons.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-125, 8.5)
The safety net of Tropicana Field was really kind to Corey Kluber last season. He had a 3.71 ERA with a .291 wOBA against in 87.1 innings at home, but a 5.05 ERA with a .341 wOBA against in 76.2 innings on the road. He allowed 33 extra-base hits on the road compared to 22 at home, despite throwing 10.2 more innings at home.
Kluber’s 20.2% K% was the lowest he’s had since 2012, but he did have the lowest BB% of his career at 3.0% as well. The low walk rate kept his FIP lower than his ERA and he still did a good job of generally staying away from hard-hit contact, but the home/road splits are something that caught my attention because he goes from the Trop, which is an outstanding pitcher’s park, to Boston, which is absolutely not a good park for pitchers.
There are some people smarter than me that really like Kyle Gibson this season. I’m less enthused, but I can see the case for it. The Phillies stunk defensively most of the season and he wound up with a 5.05 ERA with a 4.46 xERA, 4.28 FIP and 3.94 xFIP. All of these metrics, including his 67.7% LOB%, point towards being better with a better defensive team. However, Gibby is a 50.9% GB% for his career and last season was his first year under 48.8%. As a pitch-to-contact guy that induces a lot of grounders, I’m certainly concerned in a post-shift world.
This game was a stopping point for me in terms of doing prep work last night for the article. Since I picked it back up, we’ve seen a lot of games bet towards the under. Offense lags in March and April with the cooler conditions, but the elephant in the room is still the shift ban and there are a lot of games with ground ball pitchers today.