MLB schedule today has 10 games
We’ve got 10 games on the Thursday card, including three early starts, a midday matinee and six night games. It’s been an interesting week with a lot of interleague series, but we’ve got just three of those games here on June 15 and they are all series finales as we inch closer to the weekend.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 15 card (odds from DraftKings):
Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks got the game to extra innings after trailing much of the evening yesterday, but were unable to tie the game in the 10th after a crucial error led to Philly’s game-winning run. They’ll look to get back in the win column today, but have to do it as a home underdog because Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies.
Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has a 4.95 ERA with a 4.97 xERA and a 4.67 FIP in his 67.1 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy who has bad K/BB rates and a 42% Hard Hit%. There are some weaknesses on the pitching side of this Arizona team and Nelson is one example. He’s allowed 19 hard-hit balls in his last two starts, yet he’s only allowed three runs on 10 hits in 10.1 innings of work. He’s very subject to batted ball luck, as he’s allowed four or more runs five times and one or fewer runs four times. He’s given up three runs in each of his other four starts.
So, this ends up looking like a bit of a tough spot for Arizona, as they don’t have a lot of margin for error against Nola. Fortunately for them, Nola hasn’t really been himself this season, as he has a 4.60 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 4.25 FIP. Nola’s K% is down from 29.1% last season to 23.7% this season and down 3.5% from his career average. He’s also allowed 14 homers in 88 innings after allowing just 19 homers in 205 innings last season.
We did get a bit unlucky with yesterday’s play, as Corbin Carroll got a rare day off (but did pinch hit) and Ketel Marte’s back wasn’t good enough to be in the starting lineup, but he pinch hit as well. Carroll should be back, but we’ll see if Marte is good to go. The Diamondbacks may need all hands on deck with Nelson on the bump, seeing as how the Phillies rank third in wOBA for the month of June.
No play from me here, as Nola and the Phillies deserve the favorite role, but he hasn’t been himself this year.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-245, 9.5)
After falling short in the bid for a sweep of the Red Sox, the Rockies head down to Atlanta to battle the Braves in a four-game weekend set. Kyle Freeland gets the call for Colorado here and rookie AJ Smith-Shawver will go for the heavy favorites. Atlanta is first in wOBA for the month of June and also tied for first in batting average and first in wOBA against lefties this season.
Freeland is having a solid season with a 3.91 ERA, though his 4.59 xERA and 4.79 FIP suggest that some tough times may be headed his way. He’s got a .279 BABIP against because home runs don’t count towards BABIP and he’s allowed 12 of those in 76 innings after giving up just 19 in 174.2 innings last season. He’s got a 73.2% LOB%, which is a bit high for a guy with a 15.7% K%.
As I’ve talked about a lot, the way to neutralize the Braves is to get them to not make contact. Freeland’s low K% and 7.7% SwStr% don’t inspire a lot of confidence for me in this situation. The Braves lead baseball against LHP with that aforementioned .379 wOBA against lefties, but that number grows to .388 when playing in the friendly confines of Truist Park.
The 20-year-old Smith-Shawver has had a meteoric rise to the big leagues, as he just started in pro ball in 2021 with four starts in the Complex League down in Florida and then 17 starts in 2022 at A-ball. He made three starts at High-A, two starts at Double-A, two starts at Triple-A, and then found himself in the big leagues. Over the course of his 2023 season, he has allowed all of four earned runs in 40.2 innings of work across the four levels.
In a start and a relief appearance at the big league level, he’s allowed two unearned runs on three hits with five strikeouts against three walks. As Jeff Zimmermann noted in his weekly “Big Kid Adds” piece at Rotographs, Smith-Shawver has a 6% SwStr% and has thrown 66 fastballs with just two swings and misses. The super advanced pitching metrics don’t love the quality of his stuff, which is understandable given that he’s 20 and hasn’t had a ton of time for refinement.
It is true that through two starts, he’s getting very few chases with a 24.3% O-Swing% per Statcast and a 91.4% Z-Contact%, so hitters are picking out pitches in the zone to hit, but he has limited hard contact, so I’ll give him that. Still, there are some early regression signs in the profile.
The Braves have used five different relievers two of the last three days and were forced to use seven relief arms yesterday in the doubleheader. Closer Raisel Iglesias has thrown 58 pitches in the last two days and primary setup man Nick Anderson has thrown 51. The Rockies have four guys who would be working three times in four days.
I like the Over 9.5 here. It will be warm and exceedingly humid in Atlanta this evening, so it should be a good night for ball flight. Freeland has actually allowed a .504 SLG in his 33.2 road innings this season with eight of his 12 homers. He’s also allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% in his last five starts, which is a big no-no without the ability to generate swings and misses.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-155, 7)
The Cubs are seeking a sweep of the Pirates in this one, as they’ve scored 21 runs over the first two games of the season. Today, they’ll take their hacks against Johan Oviedo, who comes in with a 4.16 ERA, 4.00 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP over 71.1 innings of work. Since giving up seven runs in back-to-back starts on April 30 and May 6, Oviedo’s been quite good with a 2.62 ERA, but there are a ton of regression signs lurking in the profile.
While he has a 2.62 ERA over his last 34.1 innings, he’s got a 4.21 FIP. His 80.6% LOB% and a .226 BABIP are doing a lot of heavy lifting, especially with 19 walks in that span against just 30 strikeouts. Oviedo’s been better in his last two starts, but he has a 41.1% Hard Hit% in that span, though he has only allowed two home runs. He’s had a single-digit SwStr% in five of those six starts as well.
He has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts, but he’s building up a pretty big regression balloon that is going to pop at some point soon here.
The Cubbies send Marcus Stroman to the bump here, as he has a 2.42 ERA with a 3.49 FIP in his 85.2 innings of work. He, too, is locked into a nice run with a 1.26 ERA over his last five starts covering 35.2 innings of work. Once again, there are some major regression signs in the profile, as he has an 84.5% LOB% to go with a .181 BABIP against, which is crazy with a 67.4% GB%. Stroman only has 26 strikeouts in that span and has walked 12, but he’s been able to keep the walks from hurting him by only allowing one homer and carrying that absurdly low BABIP.
The total is 7 here because it will be a rather miserable day for baseball. Winds will be blowing in at 15-20 mph and temps are in the upper 50s. The home run suppression characteristics of weather like that don’t really help these two as much as they’d help somebody else, but they also can’t hurt.
I think these two teams will get chances to score. The question is whether or not they get those timely hits. Between the heightened walk rates for both pitchers and all the balls in play, it’s reasonable to think that we could get at least seven runs in this game, in spite of the weather forecast. I’ll take that chance today. I think the weather actually helps us by putting this total at 7, given that neither guy really gives up dingers anyway. The wind may even make fielding a bit of an adventure.
There are even some 7s at even money and even a stray 6.5 thanks to the weather. Shop around as always.
Pick: Over 7 (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 9)
An early start in Baltimore features Tyler Wells and Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has some really hideous peripherals, as he has a 4.34 ERA, but a 5.28 xERA and a 5.87 FIP over 66.1 innings of work. He’s allowed 18 home runs on the season already, but has an 88% LOB%, so he’s been able to keep his ERA quite a bit lower than his other metrics.
His walk rate is actually quite good at 7.4% and his K% at 22.7% is above the league average for starting pitchers, but those home runs are really hard to ignore. The positive for Kikuchi is that 12 of them have been solo shots, as he’s exhibited quite a bit of Cluster Luck. He’s allowed a .411 wOBA with the bases empty, but a .269 wOBA with men on base and a .274 wOBA with RISP. His control and command somehow get better in key situations, so that’s why his ERA looks semi-respectable.
Wells has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.28 xERA, but a 4.37 FIP. The high FIP is a byproduct of allowing 14 homers in 75 innings pitched, but he has terrific K/BB numbers. He also has a .189 BABIP against and an 83.7% LOB%, so batted ball and sequencing luck have been on his side. He only has a 37.7% Hard Hit%, though he’s allowed 19 barrels and a 9.5% Barrel%, which accounts for the homers he has allowed.
Quietly, he has a double-digit SwStr% and has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. The Yankees hit three homers off of him on May 24 and scored five runs, but he also had eight strikeouts in that start.
No play here with an early game, but wanted to give you some background on two guys with really weird statistical profiles.
Tampa Bay Rays (-205, 9) at Oakland Athletics
I guess I should have laid the Rays run line like I talked about, as they came away with a 6-3 decision to snap Oakland’s seven-game winning streak. The series finale is a matinee at the Coliseum with Paul Blackburn on the bump for the A’s and Taj Bradley for the Rays.