MLB schedule today has 10 games
The Thursday MLB card brings us 10 games, as 10 teams enjoy a travel day and the others are hard at work trying to come away with wins to end the series or to start off the next series on the right foot. It will be an early start across most of the league, as several getaway day games serve as extended lunch break matchups with a start time around 12:30-1 p.m. ET.
That doesn’t really give us a lot of time to get to those games, but there are a few night games that could be of interest. Getaway day games with the extreme heat and humidity aren’t going to excite each team equally, so that’s something that you may want to factor into your handicap.
Before I dig into today’s slate, let’s look at what happened last night, as the offensive barrage of Tuesday garnered a lot of attention. Wednesday was not nearly as explosive, but there were still plenty of runs scored around the league.
After posting a 17.8% HR/FB% on Tuesday, that number came back down to 13.1% on Wednesday. The 127 wRC+ that we saw on Tuesday that represented a day 27% above the league average for this season dropped back down to 92. It was not a good day for offense at all with a .230/.300/.384 slash just one day after a .270/.344/.477 slash. So, maybe the balls aren’t juiced after all.
Nearly every starter on the Wednesday board was making his second start of the second half. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that those guys would be a bit sharper than the guys that were on 8+ day layoffs on Tuesday.
|
Follow me on Twitter, @SkatingTripods, to get the article right as it goes live. (Tracking sheet)
VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the July 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-200, 9)
This series started off with a showcase for offense, which comes as no surprise with the Braves and the summer heat of Atlanta. But, then neither team really excelled with the bats on Wednesday and may struggle on Thursday, as aces Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider will go for their respective teams here and both guys have extremely good numbers for the season.
Gallen comes into this one with a 3.14 ERA with a 3.66 xERA and a 2.90 FIP over his 123.1 innings pitched. I’ve written a lot about how Gallen’s K% of 26.3% is very influenced by what he did earlier in the year. He’s allowed one run in three of his last six starts, but also allowed four runs a couple of times as well. He allowed three runs on six hits over five innings in his second-half debut against Toronto with three walks and five strikeouts.
I don’t mean to keep railing against Gallen. I just think he’s been a bit overpriced on the whole and maybe gotten too much respect. Over his last seven starts, Gallen has a 3.83 ERA with a 4.06 FIP. He’s faced the Blue Jays, Pirates, Angels, Rays, Brewers, Guardians, and Tigers, so not exactly a gauntlet of opposing offenses. I do not think he is overpriced today. In fact, there may be some value on Arizona, though it's an early game with no lead time for the article.
Strider has a 3.66 ERA with a 3.05 xERA and a 2.82 FIP on the year in his 110.2 innings of work. Strider had a little hiccup when he allowed 13 runs over a two-start stretch, but he seemed to bounce back nicely with four earned runs allowed in four starts, but he allowed five runs on July 15 in his first start back from the All-Star Break against the lowly White Sox. He did strike out 10 over six innings, but his command wasn’t quite as sharp as usual.
The Braves have dropped four in a row for the first time this season, so they need Strider to be a dude. It’s an early start, which means I don’t have a play on it with limited lead time, but it’ll be interesting to see how the game plays out. It will be in the 90s on a very hot day, so the ball could carry well.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 9.5)
It will be another early game here as the Giants and Reds face off. Alex Cobb goes for San Francisco and Andrew Abbott goes for the Reds, as Cincinnati got back in the win column for the first time in the second half with yesterday’s 3-2 victory.
Cobb has a 2.82 ERA with a 4.13 xERA and a 3.16 FIP over his 95.2 innings this season. He profiles as a guy capable of handling Great American Ball Park because of a 57.5% GB% and a solid K% at 22.4%. Cobb, unlike others coming back from the Break, had a strong first outing with one run allowed on four hits over six innings against the Pirates. He has allowed five earned runs total in his last four starts.
Abbott certainly has some regressions signs in his profile with a 2.45 ERA, 3.58 xERA, and a 4.35 FIP over 47.2 innings of work. His career is off to a really good start, but a .214 BABIP and a 95.1% LOB% will both be tough to maintain as he moves forward. Abbott worked six fine innings against the Brewers in his first second-half start and it was a good bounce back against the same Milwaukee team he faced eight days prior and allowed six runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings.
Abbott has allowed a 43.3% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%, so there are some definite contact management concerns. But, he’s been able to offset those with a 27.3% K%. While he had a good outing against the Brewers, he did only have three strikeouts and worked around some hard contact.
Early start, hot day, this game could go a variety of different ways. Late money moved the Reds into a short home favorite.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 8.5)
This early start is one of the more interesting lines of the day. The Brewers are tied for the best record in July and Corbin Burnes was simply exquisite in his start against the Reds to start the second half. However, Milwaukee is a dog here to Taijuan Walker and the Phillies.
I guess there could be some residual concerns about Burnes, who has a 3.73 ERA with a 3.56 xERA and a 4.09 FIP in his 113.1 innings of work. He battled dehydration in those six emotional innings with 13 strikeouts. He hit 100 pitches for the first time since June 2 and exceeded it for the first time since May 27. The betting markets have also been skeptical because he has not been “Burnesian”, as his numbers are nothing like what we saw from 2020-22.
Walker is also on a heater. He still has a 4.00 ERA with a 3.98 xERA and a 4.37 FIP for the season, but he owns a 2.25 ERA with a 3.73 FIP since May 21. Cut that down a little more and he has a 1.84 ERA with a 3.02 FIP in his last seven starts over 44 innings of work. For his first start in 10 days, he went five innings and allowed two runs on four hits with three strikeouts and three walks against the Padres.
This one is another early start with minimal lead time, so I don’t have any strong convictions, but this line did catch me by surprise a little bit.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-120, 8.5)
The lone late game in the NL is the first of four in this NL Central rivalry between the Cardinals and Cubs. It will be Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman here, as the Cubs lay a hefty home price. Chicago has seen a lot of lefties lately and has gotten back to having some success against southpaws after struggling a bit throughout May and June. Matz is also not a very good lefty.
He comes into this start with a 4.86 ERA, 4.45 xERA and a 4.31 FIP in 76 innings pitched. This will be his 13th start and his third straight after working out of the bullpen exclusively from May 29 to July 5. In his two most recent starts, he’s held the White Sox at bay with one unearned run in 5.1 innings and allowed four runs on four hits, including two homers, to the Nationals.
As a starter this season, Matz has allowed a .302/.363/.486 slash with a .367 wOBA in 60 innings of work. He was much more effective as a reliever with a .224/.308/.276 slash against and a .270 wOBA. Perhaps his stint as a reliever will help him as a starter, but time will tell.
Stroman, a very popular trade candidate, has a 2.88 ERA with a 3.71 xERA and a 3.39 FIP over his 118.2 innings of work. Stroman’s numbers look pretty similar to how they usually look, though he is inducing more grounders than he has in any season since 2018. His BB% is up at 8.8%, which is a career-worst, but a .251 BABIP and his best season from a home run prevention standpoint have more than covered for that.
Recently, the Regression Monster has taken a bite out of Stroman, as he allowed 15 runs in his last three starts before the All-Star Break. After skipping the Midsummer Classic, Stroman returned to throw six one-run innings against Boston with three strikeouts. He had a blister prior to the Break that may have healed during the downtime.
I’m not really confident enough in the Cubs or Stroman to lay the number here, even though he’s certainly having a better season than Matz. Matz wouldn’t be the first to have a bullpen stint and be better as a starter for it, so I’ll be eager to see him build up a few more starts to see if that’s the case.
Detroit Tigers (-140, 9) at Kansas City Royals
Michael Lorenzen will get the start for the Tigers, but the Royals had not named a starter overnight. However, the working assumption was that Zack Greinke would make his return for KC and that’s probably how the sportsbooks lined the game. Greinke caught some extra rest before and after the Break, as he spent the minimum 15 days on the IL with some shoulder discomfort. He has a 5.44 ERA with a 4.96 FIP in 92.2 innings of work.
Maybe the shoulder was barking or maybe it’s just the declining skill set, but Greinke allowed 27 runs in 30.1 innings going into his IL stint. That’s an 8.01 ERA with a 6.19 FIP, as he allowed eight homers, including three against Minnesota in his final start. He also had a start against Cleveland in which he allowed 11 hits, two walks, and didn’t strike out any of the 28 batters he faced, but only surrendered two runs.
Jekyll Hyde Lorenzen has a 3.75 ERA with a 4.23 xERA and a 4.13 FIP in his 93.2 innings of work. I call him that because he’s been a boom or bust guy this season. In 16 starts, Lorenzen has allowed five runs three times and six runs three times. He’s also allowed two runs twice and one or zero runs in the other eight starts. Against the lowly Royals, he should probably be in line for a good one, but he did give up five runs, including three homers, to the Royals back on May 22.