MLB schedule today has 7 games
We’ve got about half of a normal card on Thursday and only one day game as 16 of the league’s 30 teams partake in a travel day or enjoy some downtime at home. Today marks the start of the fourth week of the MLB season and we’re already more than 10% of the way through, which is pretty crazy.
Kenta Maeda and Sean Manaea are the only starters making their third starts today, as everybody else is making a fourth. The more data points we get, the more we have to analyze and that should only help in the quest for picking winners. Hopefully you’ve done that to this point and we can continue moving forward. (Tracking sheet)
I keep hearing 2023 compared to 2022 and it’s been a sore spot for me, so I wanted to look into something this morning that I will discuss on the podcast.
April 1-21, 2021:
BA: .233
OBP: .313 SLG: .391 HR: 608 SB: 249 K%: 24.5% BB%: 9.1% HR/FB%: 13.3%March 30-April 19, 2023:
BA: .246
OBP: .322 SLG: .402 HR: 621 SB: 395 K%: 22.7% BB%: 9.1% HR/FB%: 12.0%Over the last few days, the walk rate has fallen and is now in line with the 2021 season. The big decrease in K% has a lot to do with the foreign substance ban, which took place during the 2021 season, but not until there were basic checks in mid-May and stronger checks in June and beyond.
The raw number of HR is a little higher with a much higher rate of batted balls with the K% decrease, but the HR/FB% is well off the pace. Long story short, compare 2023 to 2021, not 2022 because the dead ball year means nothing in the grand scheme of things.
I’ll talk more about that on today’s edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets.
Here are some thoughts on the April 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-165, 9)
It’s been Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, and pray for rain for the Reds this season. Although, Lodolo did get knocked around by the Rays earlier this week and Greene has a 4.24 ERA, despite a 2.50 FIP and some terrific peripherals. Anyway, we’ve got Luke Weaver on the hill today and that means his name is different from the aforementioned Big Three.
This will be Weaver’s first start since June 18 of last year when he allowed nine runs on 10 hits in just 3.2 innings against the Twins. Weaver has actually been much worse as a reliever over 44.2 innings, but he has a 4.66 ERA in 406 innings as a starter. He made two rehab starts in preparation for this outing and allowed three runs on three hits in nine innings with nine strikeouts and four walks.
As I’ve mentioned before, you have to basically treat the Reds like the Rockies on the road because of their big splits and the sportsbooks are generally aware of this fact. Also, the PIrates seem to be pretty decent this year.
Roansy Contreras gets the ball for the Buccos and has a 6.00 ERA with a 3.65 FIP, so a lot of people will be looking at him as a positive regression candidate with a .367 BABIP against and a 63% LOB%. He hasn’t allowed a homer yet, which is a huge component of FIP. His Hard Hit% is 36.7%, so he hasn’t been hit all that hard. Perhaps going forward, he will be better, though he certainly has a lack of strikeouts.
Anyway, just not much interest in anything about this game, especially since I have no idea if the Reds may have fixed Weaver to some degree or not.
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (-230, 9)
Speaking of the Rockies, here they are on the road. They have scored 27 runs in nine road games thus far, but to be fair, they’re only 3-7 at home as well. They’re 3-14 in April and -59 in run differential. This is a really, really bad baseball team and they’re proving it regardless of venue.
Bright spots are few and far between for this team and Ryan Feltner is not one of them. He’s allowed 13 runs on 15 hits in 13.1 innings with a 15/11 K/BB ratio. The crazy part is that his two worst starts have been on the road, but his home start was against the Nationals and he’s right-handed, so that helped. I’m sure the player prop markets will be loaded with Phillies wagers today against Feltner and I can’t really argue with that. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, despite what we’ve seen in the strikeout department thus far.