MLB schedule today has 14 games
All 30 teams were scheduled to take the field on Saturday, but the game between the Guardians and Mets was called around 11:15 a.m. ET, so we’re down to 14 games. Mother Nature isn’t threatening any of the other games too badly, so it should be all systems go around the rest of the league.
I was once again treated to an excellent Jason Collette tweet this morning, as he looked at the month-over-month offensive differences thus far. Stolen base success rate and attempt rate are both down slightly, as pitchers and catchers seem to have adjusted to the rule changes. Starters are getting pulled a little earlier and not turning the lineup over as much, so they’ve seen a modest decline in ERA from 4.55 to 4.36.
As Collette notes, relief pitching is getting worse. The wOBA allowed by relievers is up 10 points in May and the K%-BB% is down 1.3%. K%-BB% is a really popular metric in the stats community that measures the difference between a pitcher’s strikeout rate and his walk rate. A decline could mean any number of things, from usage and fatigue to injury and the replacements having worse stats. There are plenty of things to keep monitoring as the season goes along. (Tracking sheet)
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If you missed any editions of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets, now is a good time to catch up, as the next new episode comes out on Monday.
Here are some thoughts on the May 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (-155, 9)
The Cubs coasted to an easy win for us yesterday and they’ll look to secure a series victory in an underdog role on Saturday. It will be Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Aaron Nola for the Phillies, as the home team faces quite a juicy number.
Nola has a 4.53 ERA with a 4.09 FIP in his 55.2 innings of work. It has been an odd season for Nola, whose K% is down 9.9% from last season, yet he’s managed to only go up 19 points in batting average against and has actually seen a 22-point decrease in his BABIP. His 3.65 xERA is a sign of his contact management prowess with a 33.3% Hard Hit% and a 7.7% Barrel%. His 9.6% SwStr% represents a pretty big decline from past seasons and his high mark for a game this season is 13.3%, with only three of his nine starts in double digits. He hasn’t had a season under 10.8% since 2016 in the SwStr%.
He’s allowed a homer in five straight starts and has allowed four or more runs four times in nine starts. I’m not sure where the strikeouts have gone, but the lack of punchouts has led to a 63.9% LOB%. Aside from a notable decrease in fastball velocity, I don’t see any big changes to his pitch mix or spin rates that would indicate a reason why the strikeouts have gone away.
It has been a rough year for Taillon, as he goes into this start paying tribute to Iron Maiden with The Number of the Beast as his ERA (6.66). He’s got a 3.75 FIP, though, and a 4.31 xFIP. Taillon has fallen on the wrong side of variance with a .370 BABIP and a 56.2% LOB%. He’s got 26 strikeouts against seven walks in 24.1 innings of work, but hasn’t had much of any batted ball luck, despite holding opponents under 90 mph in average exit velocity in all six starts. His 39.5% Hard Hit% is right in line with the league average, though his 11.8% Barrel% is high.
Taillon missed a couple weeks due to injury and it seems like he’s fighting to find his command a bit. Since returning on May 4, he’s allowed 11 runs on 15 hits in just 10.1 innings of work. Rain could be a factor here and it doesn’t look like a great day for hitting, otherwise I’d think about the over.
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants (-165, 7.5)
The Giants draw a left-hander in this one as Braxton Garrett takes the hill for the Marlins. Garrett has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 3.63 xFIP in his 36.2 innings of work, with one egregiously bad start skewing all of his metrics. He allowed 11 runs on 14 hits in 4.1 innings to the Braves back on May 3 and that has thrown all of his numbers out of whack. In six other starts and a three-inning relief appearance, he has allowed 11 runs on 35 hits and given up only two home runs.
Garrett actually allowed four runs on seven hits in the follow-up to that Braves start, but is coming off of his best performance of the season with one run allowed over five innings and eight strikeouts against the Reds. Garrett has absolutely earned his high .377 BABIP with a 48.3% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%. The high barrel rate is skewed by the Braves start when he allowed five, along with a 65.2% Hard Hit%, but he hasn’t had the greatest command all season long.
The Giants are 24th in wOBA against lefties at .297 with an 86 wRC+, so it remains a problematic split for them. They have a 26.7% K% and a 6.1% BB%, so that could give Garrett some hope today.
The Marlins will need Garrett to be as good as he can be because they draw a tough assignment in Logan Webb. Webb has a 3.20 ERA with a 3.75 FIP and has not allowed more than two runs in a start since April 17, coincidentally, against the Marlins. Over his last five starts, he has allowed eight total runs and gone at least 6.2 innings in every one of them. Webb allowed four runs in each of his first four starts, but he’s been tremendous since, despite a clear lack of swing and miss. He had a 13.7% SwStr% against the Cardinals on April 26, but only has an 8.1% SwStr% over his last five starts and bottomed out at 5.1% last time out against Arizona.
Nothing from me here, but two pitchers to continue to follow for future opportunities.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (-150, 8.5)
That is a direct snippet from yesterday’s article regarding the Diamondbacks and Pirates game with Zac Gallen on the hill for the Snakes. He gave up eight runs (five earned) on eight hits in 3.2 innings of work with four walks and just two strikeouts. Sometimes the signs are there and we play them. Sometimes the signs are there and we don’t. All I know is that I saw them, but it was still stunning to see Pittsburgh break out of its offensive funk in such a manner.
The reward for crushing Gallen is Brandon Pfaadt, who allowed 13 runs on 16 hits in his first 9.2 innings as a big leaguer, but rebounded nicely against the Giants and allowed just a solo homer last time out with three walks and five strikeouts. Pfaadt has an 8.59 ERA with a 9.23 FIP to this point and has allowed seven home runs in 65 plate appearances. He gave up 21 hard-hit balls and four barrels in his starts against the Rangers and Marlins before locating better in his third start. He threw more sliders and curveballs to the Giants and a better pitch mix seemed to help.
But, I have no idea what we get from Pfaadt in this outing. The Pirates awoke from their slumber and nearly had a 50% increase in their run-scoring total for the month. Was that the catalyst needed to get them going?
Mitch Keller now has a 2.38 ERA with a 2.63 FIP in his 56.2 innings of work. Pittsburgh has unlocked the magic, as he has a 1.00 ERA with an 0.85 FIP in his last four starts with 39 strikeouts against three walks. On the heels of a complete game shutout of Colorado, Keller struck out 13 Orioles over seven innings last Sunday to give his team a much-needed victory.
Keller is running a ridiculous 27.1% Hard Hit% and even allowed an 18.2% Hard Hit% in his Opening Day start when he allowed a season-high four runs on just five hits. He did walk four in that game and has only walked 10 in eight starts since. His new cutter has been a great weapon, along with improved fastball command. The Pirates have increased the usage of anything with horizontal movement for their starters and it has paid some big dividends.
A lot of people will probably ride the Keller train today at a short price, especially with Pfaadt’s numbers. I won’t be one of them, as this Pirates offense still scares me, despite what we saw yesterday, but we’ve seen one line move already on Pittsburgh and I anticipate we see more.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 9)
It will be a battle of pitch-to-contact starters here, as Noah Syndergaard and Miles Mikolas look to pitch their teams to control of this four-game set. The Cardinals won the first game 16-8, but were shut out 5-0 by Tony Gonsolin and the bullpen yesterday. This game is lined as a virtual coin flip, which makes sense given the variance for both starters.
Syndergaard went four innings against the Twins last time out with two runs allowed on four hits and five strikeouts with zero walks. He had his previous start cut short by a cut on his index finger after he had been skipped the previous turn through the rotation to work on some mechanical issues. All in all, he has a 5.94 ERA with a 4.67 FIP in 36.1 innings of work. He’s only allowed six homers, but does have a BABIP against of .331 and a LOB% of 65%.
He doesn’t really deserve the high BABIP with a 37.1% Hard Hit% and an 8.9% Barrel%, but it’s the chance you sometimes take as a pitch-to-contact guy. He only has 26 strikeouts across 158 batters faced. He actually had zero strikeouts in 23 plate appearances against the Cardinals back on April 30 before he was skipped.
Mikolas has a really similar profile. He’s got a 4.91 ERA with a 4.56 FIP in his 47.2 innings of work. He’s got a .353 BABIP against and a 74.8% LOB%. Mikolas gave up 16 runs in his first three starts of the season coming out of the WBC and has a 2.70 ERA with a 4.08 FIP in his last 33.1 innings of work. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since and has a .290 BABIP with an 83.3% LOB% in those six outings.
However, Mikolas still has a 40.8% Hard Hit% in that span with well below a strikeout per inning. I don’t see a great edge on this game with two pitch-to-contact guys in a high-variance environment, but I do think it’s interesting how Mikolas has pitched around hard contact recently, while Syndergaard hasn’t had the same level of success. Also, Mikolas had zero strikeouts in 23 batters faced over six innings against the Red Sox last time out.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-195, 9)
To the American League we go, starting with Jordan Lyles vs. Lucas Giolito in this Royals/White Sox matchup. Lyles has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season. He has a 7.14 ERA with a 5.60 xERA and a 6.39 FIP over nine starts covering 51.2 innings of work. He is 0-7 in his nine starts and has given up 14 home runs. He’s actually had two starts with zero homers allowed, but has allowed multiple homers in a start on six different occasions.
Lyles has allowed at least four in each of his last eight starts and at least four earned runs in seven of them. This is about as bad of a command profile as it gets, but because home runs don’t count towards BABIP because they aren’t balls in play, he has a .244 BABIP, which has perfect symmetry with his 2.44 HR/9. Lyles has a 49.6% LOB%, so he has gotten a little unlucky on that front because home runs do clear the bases off, yet he’s still not stranding runners.
What’s weird is that he only has a 36.5% Hard Hit%, but 22 of those 62 hard-hit balls have been barrels. He actually threw a complete game last time out against the White Sox on May 9 with four runs allowed on six hits. He followed that up with seven runs in 2.1 innings against the Brewers. I’m trying to think of a scenario in which I’d back Lyles, but nothing is coming to mind.
Giolito is having a really nice bounce back season, as he heads into this start with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.74 FIP. He fell victim to some unfortunate sequencing and batted ball luck last year, but he’s back on track now and has 56 strikeouts in 53.2 innings of work. He’s only walked 11 and only allowed seven homers. Seven of his 23 earned runs came back on April 7 against the Pirates, so he actually has a 2.82 ERA with a 3.52 FIP in his last 44.2 innings of work.
That was really the only thing to look at in this game – is there a reason to bet the over? The answer appears to be no.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-140, 9.5)
I’d say this is the most interesting matchup of the card so far. Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah are the slated starters here, as you’ve got two guys that have had all sorts of control and command issues. Rodriguez is coming off of his worst start as a pro with eight runs allowed on nine hits in 3.1 innings of work. Three starts ago, he allowed six runs on eight hits over 3.2 innings to the Royals. In between, when I bet against him, he survived 5.2 innings against the Rays.
But, Rodriguez is all out of sorts right now. He has 44 strikeouts in 37 innings, but only 10 strikeouts over his last three starts in 12.2 innings of work. He’s allowed seven home runs in those three starts to go along with a ton of hard contact. His Hard Hit% is 50.5% for the season and his Barrel% is 10.1%. Furthermore, in his last three starts, his SwStr% is just 7.8%, well below his 10.8% season mark. His last three starts have all been his lowest SwStr% marks of the season.
Both lefties and righties have pummeled Rodriguez, but lefties have definitely been better with a .328/.406/.639 slash and a .442 wOBA compared to a .297/.356/.484 with a .363 wOBA. Rodriguez has allowed a .403/.465/.714 slash and a .498 wOBA with the bases empty. Seems like there’s something mechanically wrong from the windup to say the least.
However, as bad as Rodriguez has been, this line is requiring you to lay an uncomfortable price with Manoah, who has a 5.40 ERA with a 7.00 xERA and a 6.45 FIP in his 45 innings of work. He’s walked 32 batters against 35 strikeouts for a 1.4% K%-BB%. Last season, he was at 16.4%, so his strikeout rate has plummeted and his walk rate has skyrocketed. His BABIP is 60 points higher this season at .304 and his Hard Hit% is up nearly 10% at 41.3%. How are you supposed to bet into this profile with this favorite role?
Certainly everything about these two starts points to an over, but Rogers Centre has averaged 7.6 runs per game, even with some ballpark changes that were supposed to help offense. Another game where I just don’t see a great edge.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (-295, 8.5)
Yesterday’s A’s/Astros game could not have been more frustrating. The game ended 5-1, so it never sniffed the over, but the teams combined to go 3-for-22 with RISP, including 1-for-9 in the first three innings, so I knew it was sort of dead from that point forward. Collectively, the teams stranded 19 runners.
JP Sears and Hunter Brown are today’s starters, as the Astros are an enormous favorite. Sears has a 5.27 ERA with a 4.72 xERA and a 5.50 FIP in his 42.2 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning with an outstanding walk rate, but he has also allowed 11 home runs. Sears has a 44/9 K/BB ratio, but he’s still given up enough homers for FIP to dislike his performance. He’s only allowed a 36.9% Hard Hit%, but he has allowed an 11.5% Barrel%, which is going to happen as an extremely extreme fly ball guy.
Not surprisingly, Sears has allowed a .309 wOBA in 22 innings at home and a .373 wOBA in 20.2 innings on the road, where seven of his 11 home runs have been hit. Here’s the thing, though. The Astros have only hit 39 homers this season in 44 games and only 20 at home. That ranks 23rd. The teams below them are in bad ballparks for hitting or cold-weather cities.
Hunter Brown has a 3.43 ERA with a 3.48 FIP in 44.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 47 against 17 walks and has been able to work around a .336 BABIP as a byproduct of a 45.4% Hard Hit%. He’s actually allowed a 56.8% Hard Hit% and six barrels over his last three starts against the Giants, Angels, and White Sox. He’s given up nine runs on 20 hits in 14.1 innings of work in that span.
As I mentioned yesterday before they scored one run and had just one hit with RISP, the A’s are a pretty good road offense. They are sixth in wOBA at .329 and have a 108 wRC+. They are also sixth in road wOBA against righties at .330 with a 109 wRC+.
Sears and the A’s are clearly a risk, but any +245 wager is a risk. I don’t like Brown’s command profile the last few starts and Sears is a guy whose only glaring problem is the long ball. It’s obviously a big deal, but the Astros aren’t really driving the ball this season. I think this is a decent chance to take on a big underdog, especially when looking at how the Astros have seemed bored or disinterested at times against bad teams.
Pick: Athletics +245
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 8.5)
Louie Varland and Patrick Sandoval are the slated starters at the Big A for this one, as the Angels came away with a 5-4 decision on Friday night. A rested Mike Trout should be back in the lineup after getting last night off against Joe Ryan. Keep in mind that the Angels are giving Trout a “steady diet of off days” in hopes of keeping him healthy, so you’ll have to try and figure out when those might be.
Varland now has 49 MLB innings to his name and has a 4.04 ERA with a 4.69 FIP across nine starts. So far this season, Varland has faced the Yankees, White Sox, Padres, and Cubs with 27 strikeouts in 23 innings, but he’s allowed six homers, so he has a 5.12 FIP to go with a 4.30 ERA. Varland has only walked six of 95 batters, but he hasn’t been able to evade the long ball and has a 41.9% Hard Hit% with a 12.9% Barrel%.
Sandoval has actually done an excellent job of limiting hard contact this season with a 33.3% Hard Hit%, but that number is climbing. In his last two starts against the Astros and Guardians, Sandoval has allowed 23 hard-hit balls for a 48.9% Hard Hit%. When you consider that the Guardians make very little hard contact, it is a staggering number, even if in a small sample size.
For the season, Sandoval has a 3.22 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 4.61 xFIP. He’s been helped by a .239 BABIP, but also hurt by a 68.3% LOB%. He’s only given up three home runs, which makes the .239 BABIP that much more of an outlier. Unfortunately, Sandoval is racking up regression signs heading into a start against a Twins team that ranks 28th in wOBA against lefties at .289.
My hope here is that Sandoval can string together one more serviceable start with a high Hard Hit% and we can bet against him next time out. Those last two starts represent his two highest average exit velocities of the season and his only two starts over 90 mph.
It will be balmy tonight in Anaheim with high humidity and temps in the upper 60s at first pitch with a breeze blowing out. A higher-scoring game isn’t out of the question here, but I’m not jumping on 8.5 with juice.
Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals (-115, 9.5)
I was very wrong about this game yesterday, though the Nationals at least made it interesting with three runs in the sixth and three in the seventh, but the comeback attempt stopped there. Matthew Boyd actually took a perfect game into the sixth, though he lost it very quickly in that inning.
Today’s game features Alex Faedo up against the resurgent Patrick Corbin. Faedo has made two MLB starts this season and allowed six runs (five earned) on seven hits over 10.2 innings of work. He has allowed four homers in those outings against the Mariners and Cardinals. He did strike out seven Mariners over six innings in his last start, but Seattle has one of the highest K% in baseball.
As I’ve talked about a lot, the Nationals are way better against lefties than righties, but they have the league’s lowest K%. They just haven’t driven the ball for any power against RHP this season. We’ll see if that changes in this game or any upcoming games, but they are 27th in wOBA against righties and barely 28th in SLG.
Corbin rides a streak of six straight starts with three or fewer earned runs allowed into this one. He’s been dancing around some hard contact, though, and I think his fortunes will reverse soon. He’s got a 45.2% Hard Hit% against over his last five starts and he’s nearly at 45% for the season as a whole. He has a .290 BABIP against in those last five games, but he’s managed to run a 76.4% LOB% despite a 14.3% K%.