MLB schedule today has 15 games
It is a very busy Saturday around Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams are in action with games ranging from 1:05 p.m. ET to 9:07 p.m. ET. That means a good bit of day baseball with the hot and humid weather that has taken over much of the country here in July. It could be a good day for offense, but the last few days really haven’t been, so we’ll have to wait and see if the bats are booming or if pitching rules the day.
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Here are some thoughts on the July 22 card (odds from DraftKings):
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-165, 8.5)
The Rockies and Marlins play early at Marlins Park with a matchup between Johnny Cueto and Chase Anderson. Colorado has several starters on the injured list, so they’ve been trying to cobble things together as best as they can and that’s the goal with Anderson today. Miami recently activated Cueto from the IL, so this will be just his second start in a while.
Given that description, it’s easy to see why I wouldn’t have much interest in this game. Cueto went three innings and allowed one hit over his scoreless appearance, but he probably won’t work deep into this game either and it’ll be a bullpen game for the Fish. Anderson has a 6.26 ERA with a 5.52 xERA and a 6.59 FIP in his 54.2 innings pitched. He actually shut down the Yankees with five scoreless innings last time out, but had allowed 27 runs over his previous 13.1 innings.
St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 9.5) at Chicago Cubs
Miles Mikolas is the starter for the Cardinals in this one and Chicago will start a bullpen day with Michael Fulmer. Mikolas enters this start with a 4.14 ERA, 4.98 xERA and a 3.94 FIP on the season over 121.2 innings pitched. For Mikolas, this will be his third start after the extended All-Star Break layoff.
He threw three shutout innings against the Nationals in a game suspended by rain and then threw six innings with three runs on seven hits on short rest after his limited outing. Mikolas was good in his last start before the Break, but had allowed 22 runs on 34 hits in 31 innings over his previous five starts. As a pitch-to-contact who hasn’t had the same command this season, he’s been a bit touch and go.
Fulmer is an interesting choice to open, given that he’s still had some high-leverage appearances lately, though not as many as he did earlier in the season. He has a 4.46 ERA with a 4.04 FIP in his 42.1 innings pitched. It would seem that he’s the opener for Drew Smyly, who was scheduled to start this game, but he’s run into some very hard times of late. The veteran lefty has allowed 24 runs on 39 hits in his last 28.1 innings of work, so the Cubs are hoping that Fulmer getting through the top of the order can allow Smyly to have a little more success and get the pitching staff deeper into the game.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (-120, 11)
Brandon Williamson gets the call here for Cincinnati, as the Diamondbacks send out youngster Brandon Pfaadt. The battle of the Brandons is lined a little towards the Cincy side, which makes sense given how Pfaadt’s MLB stints have gone.
The rookie right-hander came up on May 3 and promptly allowed 13 runs on 16 hits in his first two starts. He wound up allowing 22 runs in 23.2 innings of work and got sent down. He was recalled for a spot start on June 29 and gave up six runs on seven hits in just two innings. Add it all up and you get a 9.82 ERA with a 7.49 FIP in 25.2 MLB innings for the kid.
Pfaadt has a 3.71 ERA in Triple-A with 69 strikeouts in 60.2 innings of work. Given how hard it is to pitch in the PCL, those are really solid numbers, but he’s stepping back up in class here and will do so at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
On the Reds side of things, their Brandon has a 4.96 ERA with a 5.77 xERA and a 5.50 FIP over 52.2 innings of work. He’s been a bit better since June 19 with a 4.29 ERA and a 4.62 FIP in his last five starts, but he doesn’t really work deep into games for a variety of reasons, including his inefficiency with a lot of deep counts. He did allow just two solo homers to the Giants in six innings after a 10-day layoff around the All-Star Break, but only had three strikeouts against three walks.
This is the weaker side of the split for the D-Backs, who are 18th in wOBA at .316 with a 96 wRC+ for the season. Since June 15, Arizona is 27th in wOBA with a .276 mark and a 68 wRC+. They have walked at a high rate, which is less of a concern against Williamson than you’d expect since he’s cut his BB% from 12.1% to 9.8% at the MLB level, but they’ve had limited contact quality.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati is top-five against RHP at .346 with a 110 wRC+. Alexis Diaz has worked four of the last six days, but hasn’t thrown more than 13 pitches in any appearance, so I think he’s okay for today. I think he might be needed, as the Reds should have a lead late.
Pick: Reds -120
San Francisco Giants (-195, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
We’ve got a solid pitching matchup in this one in the nation’s capital between Logan Webb and Josiah Gray. The Giants ace comes in with a 3.11 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP over his 133 innings of work. Webb has a 60.5% GB% with a 25.5% K%, which makes him really difficult to score off of on a regular basis.
Since April 22, Webb has a 2.72 ERA with a 3.14 FIP, as he has made 16 starts and allowed more than three runs just three times in that span with a 61.3% GB%. Webb has allowed just four runs over his last three starts, including 28 strikeouts against just two walks. While a lot of guys struggled with the extended layoff from the All-Star Break, Webb allowed two solo homers and four total hits over seven innings in his first start in eight days against the Reds in Cincy.
Gray comes in with a 3.59 ERA, 4.53 xERA, and a 4.86 FIP in 105.1 innings pitched. He’s a guy that has carried a high walk rate throughout the season, but has typically limited hard contact against, so he’s been able to work around it. Dating back to June 2, that task has been a bit more difficult, as he has a 4.74 ERA with a 5.37 FIP over 43.2 innings of work. He’s allowed at least four runs in five of his eight starts, including his first one after the Break against the Cardinals. It could’ve been worse than four runs, as he allowed 10 hits.
With the Giants a really hefty favorite here with their ace on the bump and a struggling Gray, I don’t have a play, but don’t let Gray’s 3.59 ERA fool you. His peripherals look a lot worse and regression has found him of late.
Atlanta Braves (-140, 9.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
Allan Winans will make his MLB debut in this one, as the Braves take on the Brewers. Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser. Winans is 27 years old and has a 2.81 ERA with a 3.75 FIP over his 102.2 innings of work at Triple-A this season. He’s a 49.6% GB% guy, which largely fits the plan for the Braves, who love their ground ball guys. He has struck out 22.3% of opposing batters with a very strong 6.3% BB%.
Winans was originally Mets property, but the Braves acquired him in 2021 and now he’ll get his MLB shot. He was listed as a “spot starter” in FanGraphs’ top 30 list for the Braves, with a note that he relies on a heavy sinker and changeup combination, so he’s kind of a non-prospect. He’s been outstanding against righties on the season, holding them to a .199/.255/.303 slash in Triple-A. Lefties only have a .225/.267/.371 slash, which can be a rare thing to find with a sinkerballer, since lefties are often capable of pulling those through the infield.
Houser heads into this start with a 3.79 ERA, 4.26 xERA, and a 4.34 FIP at the MLB level over 57 innings pitched. Home run prevention has been a big part of the equation for him, as he has only allowed six long balls on the season. That has allowed him to work around a below average K% of 15.5%. I’m usually very concerned about pitch-to-contact guys against the Braves for obvious reasons. But, Houser limits walks, homers, and only has a 5.2% Barrel%.
He does have a 43.2% Hard Hit%, so that would be a bit of a concern here. He also only has a 6.2% SwStr%, so he's very BABIP-dependent. Against a team that makes a lot of loud contact, he may have a much harder time being able to dodge bullets like he has throughout the season.
With that said, Winans is making his debut and laying a pretty decent favorite price, so I’ll stay away from this one.Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-260, 8)
Not much to say about this early start, as Brady Singer is tasked with finding a way to go toe-to-toe with Gerrit Cole. Given what we’ve seen from Singer throughout the season, that is a really, really big ask. He has been a bit better lately, but his 5.70 ERA, 5.49 xERA, and 4.40 FIP for the season are a lot to ignore. He really had nowhere to go but up and he has, posting a 4.05 ERA with a 3.79 FIP over his last nine starts.
However, Singer has allowed 10 runs on 20 hits in his last two starts, so he’s back to struggling. His last start was against the Rays and his start before that was against Cleveland. In some respects, the Yankees are a step down, but this is still a tricky start in a small ballpark.
Cole has a 2.78 ERA with a 3.75 xERA and a 3.38 FIP on the season. He’s been really solid for a Yankees bunch that has been desperate for good starting pitching this season with so many injuries and inconsistencies. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start since May 28. He also had 11 strikeouts in his last start and has had at least seven in four of his last six starts, so he’s slowly been increasing his K%, which was an issue earlier in the season.
The baseline for Cole is so strong that Singer is going to have to basically have an out-of-body experience to keep pace.
Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 7.5) at Seattle Mariners
We’ve got a strong pitching matchup at T-Mobile Park here between Kevin Gausman and Logan Gilbert. The Jays are laying a pretty good road number here behind Gausman, who has a 3.03 ERA with a 3.54 xERA and a 2.46 FIP over his 115.2 innings pitched. He has a huge K% of 32.6% with a strong 6.2% BB%, so those peripherals look really solid. He has allowed a .339 BABIP and only has a 73.9% LOB%, but those two numbers should improve given the quality of his other numbers and his stuff.
The concern I have here for Gausman is that he hasn’t pitched since July 8, so this is a pretty long layoff for him. He has been dealing with some side discomfort, so the Jays have erred on the side of caution with their unquestioned ace. Gausman has allowed more than three runs in a start just once since May 4. He’s had one blow-up per month, though he doesn’t have one in July yet, so that will be something to keep an eye on in this start and his next start.
Gausman has allowed eight runs twice and six runs once. Otherwise, he has only given up 22 runs in his other 16 starts. Since that May 4 start, he’s got a 3.39 ERA, so a little higher than his season average, but he’s got a 2.53 FIP. If we narrow it down to his last six starts, he has a 2.79 ERA with a 2.08 FIP. But, again, he hasn’t pitched in two weeks, so it’s hard to know what we’re going to get here.
Gilbert has a 3.65 ERA with a 3.47 xERA and a 3.40 FIP over his 113.1 innings of work on the year. Like Gausman, we’re talking about some excellent K/BB numbers with a 24.6% K% and a 4.4% BB%. His issue is a 68.5% LOB% that has his ERA up at 3.65, but he’s seen a good bit of positive regression recently, as he has only allowed 10 runs over his last six starts. In that span, he has an 83.3% LOB%, so he’s gotten his due in that respect. He’s got a 2.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP in those 39.1 innings pitched with 30 strikeouts against seven walks. The K% is down a bit, but his other peripherals look good.
One odd thing for Gilbert is that his home ERA is 4.21, while his road ERA is 3.26. You would expect different numbers with how pitcher-friendly his home venue is, but the LOB% troubles have been much worse at home than on the road, as he’s got a 66.4% LOB% in home starts and a 70.1% LOB% on the road.
I think the Mariners may have a little bit of value here, but I’m not excited about stepping in front of Gausman. I’m merely speculating that he’ll struggle coming back from two weeks on the shelf. He could simply be as sharp as usual and that would really limit Seattle’s paths to victory.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-180, 7.5)
The fun weekend set between the top two teams in the AL East will feature a spotlight game on Saturday with young fireballer Grayson Rodriguez and Rays ace Shane McClanahan. The O’s recalled Rodriguez for his first MLB start in nearly two months last week and he allowed four runs on seven hits against the Dodgers over five innings. From a pure stuff standpoint, Rodriguez looked really explosive with a fastball that averaged 97.9 mph and touched triple digits multiple times.
However, the same issues that plagued him when he was up earlier in the season were present again. He gave up a 50% Hard Hit% and a 12.5% Barrel% with two barrels allowed. He did induce a ton of ground balls, so it appears that the Orioles made some adjustments to his arsenal to try and limit the line drives and fly balls that hurt him so badly earlier. He still has a 7.33 ERA and a 5.63 FIP for the season, though it seems like we need to evaluate him based on his performances since going to the minors and working on some things.
Through three innings, Rodriguez had only allowed an infield single, but the second time through the order proved to be a problem, as the Dodgers broke through for a run and then chipped away in the sixth. It is worth noting that Bryan Baker surrendered a grand slam with two of Rodriguez’s runners on base, so his stat line wasn’t quite as bad as it looked.
McClanahan has a 2.56 ERA with a 3.92 xERA and a 3.84 FIP over his 102 innings this season. He’s battled a few different ailments and his last start on July 17 was his first since June 30. Mac allowed two runs on just three hits against the Rangers with six strikeouts in six innings. It was one of many games recently where the Rays failed to score runs, though, so Tampa wound up on the short end in that one. But, most importantly, McClanahan looked pretty sharp overall. He had a 15.9% SwStr% and his velocity looked just fine.
I’m sure there will be some people that try the Orioles in this game with the Rays’ offensive woes, but I don’t trust Rodriguez much.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-135, 8)
Dylan Cease seems to be a popular trade candidate in advance of the August 1 Trade Deadline. Will this be his final start for the White Sox? It could be and they need a lot of help on the prospect side, so it would make sense to move him. Sonny Gray will go for the Twins here with a line that has him as a little bit of a small favorite on the surface.
Cease hasn’t had the best season with a 4.18 ERA, 4.11 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP. He’s still got a 27.4% K% and his BB% is now under 10% after working out some of the control kinks in recent outings. After a couple of tough starts going into the Break with eight runs allowed on 17 hits in 11.1 innings, he came back and started the second half on a high note with five good innings against a quality Braves lineup. He struck out six and walked three while allowing just one run on three hits.
The biggest issue for Cease this season has been allowing hard contact. He’s allowed a 45.5% Hard Hit%, though he has done a good job of avoiding barrels with a 7.2% Barrel%. Cease has surrendered 12 homers, but never more than one in a start. Over his last eight starts across 45 innings, he has only allowed more than three runs once. He has a 3.20 ERA with a 2.86 FIP in that span, so he’s pitching well at the right time to get moved.
Gray is having a terrific season for the Twins, but there are some cracks in the armor right now. He has a 3.16 ERA and a 2.93 FIP for the season, but his 4.00 xERA and his 3.81 xFIP might be more relevant than we originally thought. First of all, he’s only allowed three home runs on the season, which seems unsustainable moving forward. He has a 3.7% HR/FB% with a career mark of 11.8% and a previous career-best of 9.3% in a full season.
Gray had not allowed more than three runs in a start up until July 8 when the Orioles touched him up for six runs in six innings. His first start after the Break was a dud as well, as he gave up five runs on five hits to the Mariners. He also walked four guys in that outing, which tied a season high. Seattle swings and misses a lot, but he only had a 9.9% SwStr% in that start. Given that Gray has a 41.2% Hard Hit% for the season, I would expect some more balls to find holes. That said, he’s running really hot with ground balls right now.