MLB schedule today has 8 games
A new week begins with eight games, as the Red Sox and Rays play a makeup game from Friday night’s rainout. That is the only day game, but it doesn’t start until 4 p.m., so bettors have plenty of time to handicap the card coming out of the weekend.
A quick update on last week’s offensive stats relative to the full season to date:
Season: .247/.320/.408, .318 wOBA, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 12.2% HR/FB%
Last 7 days: .244/.314/.393, .310 wOBA, .296 BABIP, 22.9% K%, 8.4% BB%, 10.9% HR/FB%
It was a down week for offense overall, as there was a steep decrease in home runs and a noticeable drop in walk rate. I’m not really sure what the root cause may have been. The weather is warming up and plenty of pitchers are still hurt. Maybe it was just one of those weeks. Guess we’ll see how it plays out this week.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets is back with a new episode today.
Here are some thoughts on the June 5 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-130, 9.5)
It is a big day for the Reds as pitching prospect Andrew Abbott makes his MLB debut. The 24-year-old southpaw has a 3.05 ERA with a 4.59 FIP in seven Triple-A starts after beginning with three dominant starts at Double-A, where he had a -0.49 FIP. In those three Double-A starts, Abbott struck out 36 of the 56 batters that he faced. He had 54 strikeouts in 38.1 innings at Triple-A and allowed 13 runs on 27 hits, though eight of those hits were home runs.
In Double-A, Abbott was using a pre-tacked, sticky ball that MLB was experimenting with and hitters were having an impossible time making contact. So, we want to take those numbers with a grain of salt, but his velocity is up across the board and the Reds have worked to deepen his arsenal after he was primarily a reliever in college. He’s also left-handed, which can’t hurt against the Brewers, who are still 30th in wOBA against lefties and have struck out over 29% of the time.
Julio Teheran makes his third start for Milwaukee, as he has allowed just one earned runs (two total) over 11 innings of work with a 5/1 K/BB ratio. He faced 22 batters in his last start and didn’t strike out any of them. He’s allowed a 38.9% Hard Hit% and an 8.3% Barrel% in his two starts. He also has just a 5.6% SwStr% on the season with a low Chase Rate of just 17.7% per Statcast.
Teheran had a 5.63 ERA with a 5.56 FIP in his eight Triple-A starts with the Padres before the Brewers traded for him to get some rotation help. He had 45 strikeouts in 40 innings, but also gave up seven homers, mostly pitching in high elevation. He’s a fly ball pitcher and I’m not sure I love that on a warm evening in Cincinnati.
The betting market drove this price up overnight, as the Reds are anywhere from -125 to -130 at most shops. I think that’s a pretty reasonable line. Those that hopped on overnight around -110 got a better number for sure. It’s a little rich for my blood now.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-170, 8.5)
Kyle Hendricks and Blake Snell are the listed starters for this one as the Cubs and Padres play the rare wraparound series. After a rocky 2023 debut, Hendricks had a nice start against the Rays with one run allowed on six hits, though he did only have three strikeouts against three walks. He fell victim to some batted ball variance in his first start against the Mets, as he only allowed a 28.6% Hard Hit%, but five runs (three earned) on six hits.