MLB schedule today has 9 games
Ten games are on the betting board as we head into a new week’s worth of games. While MLB is the focus here, I must say that I’m excited about the start of the college football season this week and my thoughts on the lines for Week 0 and my first Power Ratings update of the season were posted to the site last night. Seven games are on the Week 0 slate, so read up about those after you check out today’s MLB thoughts.
We’ve got a 4-3-3 format today as there are four games in the NL, three in the AL, and three interleague matchups and we do have a few big favorites on the card, along with a few pitchers that haven’t gotten a lot of reps throughout the course of the season.
For your weekly offense update:
Season: .249/.320/.413, .318 wOBA, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.5% BB%, 12.6% HR/FB%
2nd Half: .250/.321/.422, .321 wOBA, .296 BABIP, 22.8% K%, 8.4% BB%, 13.6% HR/FB%
Last week: .254/.324/.424, .324 wOBA, .300 BABIP, 22.2% K%, 8.3% BB%, 13.8% HR/FB%
It appears that it was a good week for offense. We saw gains of 5/4/9 in the slash line compared to the full season and 4/3/2 compared to the second half. It was largely just a byproduct of that K% decrease to 22.2%. A lower K% the rest of the way might be a possibility with pitchers getting tired and more minor league call-ups for spot starts. However, it may also just be the way that starters fell, with aces maybe only going once last week and then twice this week.
Sometimes I just look at the last seven days to show the variance and volatility of baseball in smaller sample sizes.
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Here are some thoughts on the August 21 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 8.5)
It will be opener Scott Alexander for the Giants and full-fledged starter Aaron Nola for the Phillies as the teams kick off a weekend set at Citizens Bank Park. Two options are available after Alexander, as Sean Manaea hasn’t pitched since Tuesday when he threw 57 pitches and Sean Hjelle, who was recently recalled from Triple-A.
Alexander has a 4.06 ERA with a 3.32 FIP in 37.2 innings of work. He’s been the opener six times thus far and has allowed five runs on six hits in that role. His last start was a shutout inning against the Rangers on August 11, but he allowed three runs on three hits and didn’t record an out against the Angels on August 8. He’s had back-to-back scoreless appearances, but allowed two runs on three hits in 1.2 innings against the Rays on August 14.
Manaea is expected to bulk here with a 4.89 ERA and a 3.51 FIP over 81 innings of work. He’s allowed one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts in his last 7.1 innings as a bulker on August 9 and 15. He has only allowed that one run over his last six appearances. Hjelle last worked at the MLB level on June 21, but is stretched out to bulk soon if necessary. He has allowed 20 runs in his last 12.1 innings at the Triple-A level, though, so buyer beware with him.
Nola has a 4.58 ERA with a 3.87 xERA and a 4.25 FIP in 153.1 innings pitched this season. He has allowed way too many homers with a K% drop and a big downturn in LOB%, so a lot of things are going wrong for him in a contract year. He’s allowed 27 homers, which ties the career-high he set in the juiced-ball season of 2019. His K% is down to 25.4%, which is the lowest one he’s had since 2016.
The Giants won yesterday, but it has been a struggle in the second half on offense. Their .275 wOBA is the lowest by 17 points and their 72 wRC+ is the lowest by nine points. The Giants have a .254 wOBA and a 58 wRC+ in August against righties. This would seem to be a pretty good matchup for Nola and a rested Phillies bullpen.
The Phillies have a .345 wOBA and a 116 wRC+ against lefties in the month of August and have been a top-10 group overall in the second half with a .332 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. Also, for whatever reason, Nola’s been way better at home. He’s allowed 19 of his 27 homers on the road in 90.2 innings compared to 62.2 innings at home, where his wOBA against is 50 points lower and his ERA is 1.7 runs lower. His home FIP is 3.44 and his road FIP is 4.81.
Add it all up and I’ll lay the Phillies price tonight.
Pick: Phillies -142
St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 10) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Two teams had not yet named a starter for Monday’s action and one was the Pirates, who sent Quinn Priester down to the minors recently. It looks like Bailey Falter will get the call here, as he’s the only guy rested enough to start. He’s got a 4.86 ERA with a 4.94 FIP on the season, but did have a good start last time out with one run on four hits over 5.1 innings against the Mets.
In three starts with the Pirates, Falter has allowed six runs on 18 hits in 13.1 innings with a 10/4 K/BB ratio. Osvaldo Bido went 69 pitches yesterday as the bulker for the Buccos, which leaves Yohan Ramirez as the freshest guy behind Falter if he gets in trouble early.
St. Louis will send out 23-year-old Drew Rom for his MLB debut. Rom was acquired from Baltimore in the Jack Flaherty trade and made two starts for the Redbirds’ Triple-A affiliate with one earned run on just two hits in 11 innings with an 18/4 K/BB ratio. As a member of Baltimore’s Triple-A team, he had a 5.34 ERA with a 4.21 FIP. Rom has had massive K% marks in the minors, but has also had issues with his control.
We’ve seen a lot of minor leagues with walk rate concerns come up this season, as the automated strike zone in Triple-A is less forgiving than the big league zone, especially from umpire to umpire. Eric Longenhagen said of Rom at the Trade Deadline that he’s a spot starter with a low-90s fastball, sweeper slider, above average command, and a funky delivery. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2023-deadline/) Deception would certainly explain the high K%. Rom was the 29th-ranked prospect in the O’s system coming into the season, but that is a LOADED farm system.
Longenhagen’s longer report prior to the season was not as encouraging, as he slapped a 30 grade on the fastball, which is really bad on the 20-80 grading scale. The left-hander is a major wild card heading into tonight’s game.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-218, 10.5)
Faith in David Peterson is quite low tonight as the Braves and Mets do battle. Atlanta will counter with rookie Allan Winans, who has already been a large favorite more than once in his short MLB career. This will be the third MLB start for Winans, who has allowed two runs on nine hits with a 14/3 K/BB ratio in starts against the Brewers and Mets.
He faced the Mets back on August 12 and threw seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts, so that was a phenomenal outing for the rookie right-hander. He owns a 2.79 ERA with a 3.92 FIP in 113 innings at Triple-A with solid peripherals.
Peterson has a 5.45 ERA with a 5.05 xERA and a 4.71 FIP over 72.2 innings pitched. He’s got a really solid K% at 24.2%, but has accompanied it with an 11% BB% and a .371 BABIP against. Peterson has also allowed 11 homers in just 20 appearances. Since rejoining the rotation, he’s allowed three runs on eight hits over 11.1 innings of work versus the Pirates, Cubs, and Orioles.
The Braves have a .407 wOBA against lefties and a 156 wRC+ in the month of August. They have the best offense in baseball in the second half with a .372 wOBA. It’s hard to find reasons to go against them and I certainly don’t have any today.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (-192, 8.5)
Both teams had an unscheduled day off yesterday as Tropical Storm Hilary dropped immense amounts of rain in Southern California, including over an inch and a half in San Diego. The Marlins were able to get out of LA and batten down the hatches at their San Diego hotel in advance of the start of the series and it will begin as scheduled with Michael Wacha for the Padres and Ryan Weathers for the Marlins.
Weathers was recently acquired by Miami from San Diego, so this will be an interesting start for the 23-year-old left-hander. Weathers allowed six runs on six hits in 3.2 innings in his first appearance for the Marlins, but then got sent down to work on some things at Triple-A. In his two Triple-A starts, he went six innings in each with one run in the first and two runs in the second, plus 15 strikeouts against three walks. So, now he’s back at the MLB level.
Even though today is Blake Snell’s turn in the rotation, he’ll slot back to Wednesday and Wacha will get the call today. He’s making his second start since returning from the IL. He worked five shutout innings against the Orioles six days ago, but was staked to an early 5-0 lead and got to put it in cruise control as he came back from missing six weeks.
He’s got a 2.68 ERA with a 3.65 FIP and a 4.09 xERA, so there are regression signs in the profile, namely with his 82% LOB%, but he’s been able to stave those off pretty much all year. His HR/FB% of 6.8% is also well below his 12.5% mark, but pitching at Petco Park has certainly helped.
The Marlins are probably priced a little bit high here, but I’m not all that interested in taking them against a righty like Wacha, who has a 1.10 ERA over his last 11 starts, even if I am concerned a little coming back from injury.
Seattle Mariners (-185, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
A couple right-handers square off here between Luis Castillo and Touki Toussaint as the surging Mariners ride the high of a road sweep of the Astros into this series on the South Side. The M’s are massive road favorites here, even though Castillo’s road numbers do leave something to be desired.
For the full season, Castillo has a 3.23 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.87 FIP in 150.1 innings pitched. However, he’s worked 67 innings on the road and has a 3.90 ERA compared to a 2.70 ERA at home in 83.1 innings. By slash line, he’s +56/+51/+91 on the road in terms of BA/OBP/SLG compared to at home and his wOBA is 55 points higher. His K% goes from 31.6% to 22.3% and his FIP goes from 3.43 to 4.40.
It is still the White Sox, though, so maybe Castillo’s road splits aren’t as impactful. Chicago is 25th in wOBA against righties this month with a .299 mark and a 88 wRC+. The White Sox have only walked 5.8% of the time with a 23.9% K%, but have hit for a little bit of power relative to their other numbers with a .396 SLG. Overall in the second half, though, this is a team with a .292 wOBA and an 83 wRC+ to rank 29th and 28th, respectively, in those two categories.
Seattle is rolling offensively and draws an interesting matchup with Toussaint, who has a 4.47 ERA with a 4.95 xERA and a 5.17 FIP in 50.1 innings. He’s had some good loutings with the White Sox, but has allowed 11 runs on 14 hits in his last 14.1 innings pitched with 22 strikeouts, but also 14 walks. The Mariners have cut down on the strikeouts a bit to level up offensively, but will still swing and miss a lot.