MLB schedule today has 11 games
I think it’s fair to say I have a case of the Mondays after flying back to Vegas late last night after a weekend bachelor party back in Cleveland. It was a long weekend, but I’m a creature of habit and a routine-oriented person, so I’ll snap out of it and get to today’s game, as we’ve got 22 teams in action and all night games to kick off the week. (Tracking sheet)
This past weekend was very, very low on offense. League-wide, we only saw a .230/.301/.396 slash with a 93 wRC+, so the overall offensive performance from Friday-Sunday was 7% below league average relative to what we’ve seen thus far.
The league-wide BABIP was only .280 and there was a huge spike in K% up to 25.1%. There was also a major decline in BB% to 8.1%. This season still represents the highest BB% since 2000 (if you exclude the 2020 COVID year), but we’ve seen the walk rate drop 0.3% over the last week and a half.
The K% of 23% is also now higher than what we had last year at 22.4% and closer to what we had in 2019 and 2021. I’m not sure if pitchers have found something less detectable to improve grip or what, but offense has really shifted over the last 7-10 days compared to where we started this season.
It was chilly in a few places over the weekend, but pitchers seem to have adjusted to a lot of the rule changes and hitters haven’t benefited nearly as much lately.
Quick note: Being back on PST, the schedule for the article will be more like what it has been. Follow me on Twitter, @skatingtripods, as I post the link right away when it goes live.
I’ll talk about that, a sabermetric stat of the day, and more on today’s edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets.
Here are some thoughts on the April 24 card (odds from DraftKings):
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-265, 7.5)
We start with the biggest favorite on the board, as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the bump against Edward Cabrera and the Marlins. Strider has only allowed six runs on 12 hits in 22 innings while racking up 36 strikeouts. He not only picked up where he left off from last season, but got even better with a K% bump of 2.6% to 40.9%. He’s only allowed one homer. An increased walk rate is the only blemish for him to this point.
Cabrera has really thrown the ball well for the Fish, so he could keep his team in the game despite the low offensive projection. He’s allowed two runs in each of his four starts. He walked 13 in his first two outings, but has only walked three of the last 47 batters that he has faced. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and has over a strikeout per inning in starts against the Mets (x2), Phillies, and Giants.
The under is getting some love here and understandably so. Most books are -120 on the Under 8, while some have already taken the plunge down to 7.5. The Braves have had some bullpen issues lately with a couple tough AJ Minter appearances. The Marlins pen isn’t super reliable. I don’t have a bet here, but I’m sure the books will be loaded with the Braves in moneyline parlays and Strider K props.
St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 8) at San Francisco Giants
Jordan Montgomery and the Cardinals are out on the left coast to take on the Giants. It will be Alex Cobb for San Francisco and he probably shouldn’t expect much offensive help. It’s probably too early on a Monday to play the MLB Article Drinking Game, but the Giants get yet another lefty here and I may have mentioned this before, but they’re terrible against lefties.
The sample sizes are still smallish, but they’ve got a 68 wRC+ against lefties, which did improve a bit when they knocked David Peterson around for seven runs on Saturday. On the whole, though, they’ve been really bad and that’s with 285 plate appearances at this point. No other team in the top 12 in plate appearances has a wRC+ under 92. The Giants have also struck out 30.9% of the time against lefties with just a 6.0% BB%.
Montgomery is a positive regression candidate going into this start, mostly because he just allowed seven runs on 10 hits to the Diamondbacks. He’s given up 12 runs on 25 hits with a 19/5 K/BB ratio in 22.1 innings. His BABIP is .333 and his LOB% is 62.9%. As I mentioned last week, those are two easy indications for looking at the card, given that an average BABIP is usually around .290 and an average LOB% is usually around 73%. It explains why Montgomery has a 4.84 ERA with a 2.88 FIP.
There is no guarantee that he experiences positive regression here or soon, though. Outside of a strong start against Milwaukee, he’s allowed a 40% or higher Hard Hit% in three of four starts and nine barrels, which is very unlike him.
Cobb has been really good this season with six earned runs allowed on 26 hits in 19.1 innings of work. He has a .407 BABIP against, but is running an 84% LOB% to offset the cost of the hits he has allowed. He’s also struck out 22 and only walked three. He’s given up a ton of hard contact, so he has earned the high BABIP, but he’s kept most of the contact on the ground to avoid giving up doubles and dingers.
I will be looking at Cobb as a regression candidate soon. He’s allowed a .347/.360/.510 slash and a .377 wOBA with the bases empty, but a .265/.306/.294 with a .272 wOBA with men on base and a .182/.217/.227 with a .202 wOBA with runners in scoring position. This is a concept called “Cluster Luck”, as explained in Joe Peta’s excellent book . Peta is a semi-regular guest with Gill Alexander on A Numbers Game if you’re trying to recall how you know that name.
I don’t have a play here, but there’s a lot to follow with these two starters and also these two teams, specifically the Cardinals, who continue to limp out of the gate.
Boston Red Sox (-125, 8) at Baltimore Orioles
I can definitively say that the most frustrating pitcher this season has been Chris Sale. Sale just turned in an absolute gem against the Twins with 11 strikeouts over six innings of work. His slider looks great and he made a pretty big arsenal adjustment against Minnesota to not really throw his sinker, but level up his four-seam fastball usage. He hasn’t located either pitch all that well, but at least he’s getting swings and misses with the fastball.
His sinker has a Whiff% of 10.7% and opposing batters own a .428 BA with an .875 SLG in 14 batted balls. His slider continues to be an elite weapon with 17 strikeouts and a .136 BA. I have to think the usage change to abandon the sinker sticks around after such an encouraging outing against the Twins. He allowed so much hard contact against the Orioles and Rays, but then looked like a different guy against the Twins. His velocity is still down and the spin rates are still a concern.
Dean Kremer had a really strong outing against the Nationals last time out, but any righty with a pulse can shut down the Nats right now. In three starts prior, Kremer allowed 13 runs on 16 hits in 12.1 innings against the Red Sox, Yankees, and then Athletics. Getting Washington was good for the soul and good for the confidence, but he’s not getting Washington’s offense here.
Despite Sale’s most recent start, there is no way I could lay a price with him until I see some more consistency. Kremer isn’t high on my list either.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-155, 8)
Taj Bradley’s third career MLB start will be his stiffest test to date with a matchup against the Astros. Bradley has faced the Red Sox and Rays and allowed three runs on eight hits with 17 strikeouts in 10.1 innings of work. He was staked to a massive lead in the last start when the Rays scored seven runs by the third inning off of Nick Lodolo, but the raw stuff from Bradley continues to look quite impressive.
He has allowed 11 hard-hit balls in 21 batted ball events thus far, but he’s only walked two batters and had a big increase in first-pitch strikes in his second start. That’s what I was looking for and I got it when I had the under, but Lodolo didn’t hold up his end of that bargain.
Still, it is pretty rare to find the Astros at this price point. The betting markets don’t really like Jose Urquidy and I’ve seen and heard a lot of slander regarding him. I understand he has a 3.73 ERA with a 4.41 FIP for his career. He has a 5.31 FIP in the early going this season with a spike in his walk rate and four homers allowed, but I think he’s being unfairly viewed in the market.
FIP is a really limited statistic with all the data we have now. Urquidy is a fly ball guy and a strike-thrower, so he will give up some homers. But, he also limits walks and can maintain a low BABIP against because he induces so many fly balls. This season, he has an average exit velocity against of 83.9 mph, which ranks in the 95th percentile and does not support a .333 BABIP. His career BABIP is .258.
He doesn’t have high strikeout totals, but his career SwStr% is pretty close to average over a five-year span. He’s actually inducing more chases this season and ranks in the 90th percentile in that department. I think that’ll eventually lead to more swing and miss.
The Rays bullpen is running a .214 BABIP against and has a 2.91 ERA with a 4.18 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP. That group does have the lowest Hard Hit% against at 30.1%, but there are some other regression indicators with the relievers, including a 77.1% LOB% with the 28th-ranked K%. The Astros have the third-ranked K% as a bullpen and have generally faced a much tougher schedule.
Tropicana Field usually suppresses power, so Urquidy’s fly ball stylings may not be a bad fit here. I’ll take my chances with Houston at this kind of underdog price. Also, it’s anecdotal, but it sure does feel like the Astros flip the switch and focus when they want to. If they’re going to want to, I figure it’ll be in this series, much like they did with Atlanta and in the series win over Toronto. They seem to be into the rhythm of the season now.
Shop around, as you can find some +140 or better out there, but this is what DK has.
Pick: Astros +135
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 9)
The reports of Chris Bassitt’s demise were greatly exaggerated. He was awful in his first start against the Cardinals and had some control issues in his second start against the Angels, but after a confidence builder versus the Tigers and a dominant effort against the Astros, I’d say he’s just fine. Bassitt had 6.1 shutout innings against the Astros with a 27.8% Hard Hit%.
I will say that Bassitt’s low 7.5% SwStr% still worries me a bit. He hasn’t had a start with a 10% SwStr% as of yet, with 9.3% as the high mark against the hapless Tigers. He’s been commanding the ball really well with limited hard-hit contact in his last three starts, but I do like seeing pitchers with more margin for error from swings and misses. His velocity did tick up at home against Detroit, but it was back down again for his start against Houston.
His stats just don’t really tell the full story with a 5.40 ERA and a 6.14 FIP because his one start was so awful and he allowed four homers. He’s only allowed one homer since and does have 17 strikeouts in his last 18.1 innings, even with the lack of swinging strikes. So, I imagine there will be some people wondering why he’s such a big favorite with those numbers, but that’s why I stress looking at game logs.
Speaking of game logs, Lance Lynn has two decent starts and two dumpster fires. He’s allowed 18 runs on 29 hits in 21.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 28 and walked 10, while also allowing six homers. Lynn has a 7.59 ERA with a 5.90 FIP. Unlike Bassitt, he has a 46% Hard Hit% and has had a real problem with command.
I’ll be curious to see how Rogers Centre plays in this series. During the first homestand, there were only 48 runs scored over six games, even though some major ballpark alterations should increase offense as we go forward with the right center field wall moved in quite a bit.
I don’t have a play here, as I’m not eager to lay it with the Jays or take the Sox.
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-155, 7.5)
Sonny Gray has only allowed two runs this season over his 22 innings of work to post an 0.82 ERA with a 2.19 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP in his four starts. He’s struck out 26 and only walked nine. He hasn’t allowed a home run. He has pitched around some hard contact with a Hard Hit% of 40.4%. At some point, an ugly outing or a string of them will be coming. Maybe it comes today and his 92.3% LOB% comes crashing down, but he, like so many other Twins, is enjoying a big K% boost.
Gray has increased the usage of his cutter this season and mixed his pitches really well. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball at the lowest rate of his career with increased curveball usage and more changeups than usual. He’s basically just mixed his pitches so well that he has kept opponents off-balance.
Jhony Brito has some demons to exorcise in this start. He allowed seven runs on six hits with a walk across nine batters back on April 13 when he faced the Twins. Otherwise, he has only allowed two runs in his other three starts over 14.1 innings of work. That was the only start in which he allowed a lot of hard contact. He gave up six hard-hit balls in eight batted ball events. In his other three starts, he’s allowed nine hard-hit balls in 38 batted ball events. So, we’ll see if Brito has better fortunes here.