MLB schedule today has 15 games
We’re back to a full slate in Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams take the field on Friday. The MLB regular season ends two weeks from Sunday, unless a Game 163 is needed to decide the AL West. We wouldn’t have a play-in game for the Wild Card, as the spot would simply go to the team with the better head-to-head record. With 13 games against division opponents, it would be impossible to have a tie if the Wild Card teams are within division. If the H2H record is a tie outside of the division, then it goes to the “intradivision” record, so record against the four other teams within the division.
It looks like the Wild Card races will be coming down to the wire, which means paying a premium on those teams on a pretty regular basis, unless they are facing each other.
We’ve got a lot of things to get to today, so let’s dive right in and try to find a play that looks better than the nothing burger on yesterday’s card. Wish I had taken that Twins run line, though.
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Here are some thoughts on the September 15 card (odds from DraftKings):
Atlanta Braves (-170, 9) at Miami Marlins
The NL card is full of big favorites, including the Braves in this one. I mostly just wanted to touch on this game to note that Bryce Elder has stabilized a bit. He allowed seven runs three times in the span of a month and five runs in another start, but he’s allowed eight earned runs over his last five starts. I’m still not in love with the underlying metrics and he’s a reliever to me come playoff time, but he’s stabilized a bit.
I guess I could also mention that Johnny Cueto has allowed 24 runs in his last 31 innings, including 10 homers. He’s allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 8.2 innings in two September starts. The Braves are coming off of clinching the NL East on Wednesday, but did have a day off to nurse hangovers and fly down to Miami.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-115, 7.5)
The Reds are a short dog against David Peterson and the Mets in this one, as Hunter Greene takes the hill following two really good starts. After allowing 14 runs on 15 hits in 6.2 innings following his return from the IL, he’s allowed two unearned runs in his last 11.1 innings with a 15/5 K/BB ratio. Greene has had some issues throwing strikes, but he’s done well to limit hard contact in those last two outings and got a little bit of swing and miss back.
The Mets put Peterson back in the rotation as of August 4 and he’s allowed 15 runs on 33 hits in 32 innings of work. He’s winless over those seven starts, but has a 4.22 ERA with a 4.98 FIP in that span with 35 K against 17 BB. He’s allowed four runs twice and three runs once, with all of those outings over his last four starts. He has allowed a 44.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.3% Barrel% in that span, so he’s definitely allowed some loud contact.
Cincinnati played yesterday and lost, but was able to give Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, and Ian Gibaut all the day off after those three guys worked Tuesday and Wednesday. I lean with the Reds in this one, but I don’t feel strongly enough to jump in with it. I’m not a big Peterson guy, but the Reds are only 17th in wOBA against LHP over the last six weeks.
Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
There are a couple of reasonably-priced favorites on the NL card, with the Phillies here and the Cubs coming down the line. This one features Aaron Nola against Zack Thompson. Nola has a 4.64 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 4.21 FIP over 176.1 innings of work. He’s got over a strikeout per inning and a nice walk rate, but he’s got a 15.9% HR/FB% and has allowed a career-high 31 homers this season.
He’s also allowed 11 runs over his last nine innings of work. He did throw seven shutout at home against the Cardinals on August 27 with nine strikeouts in what has easily been his best start of the second half. He actually has a 5.18 ERA over his last 10 starts, though he does have a 3.99 FIP and a 3.52 xFIP, so the advanced metrics paint a prettier picture, but he has a 62.7% LOB%. For the season, he has a 65.8% LOB%, which would be his second season over the last three with a LOB% under 67%.
Thompson will make his sixth straight start here and seventh of the season. Over that span, he’s posted a solid 3.71 ERA with a 3.52 FIP over 34 innings pitched. His one relief effort in his last seven outings was four innings in a bulk role. He actually worked in a seven-inning start two outings ago. He’s allowed nine runs on 17 hits in his last 16 innings.
The Cardinals have won three straight series over the Braves, Reds, and Orioles, so I guess they aren’t just playing out the string like I expected them to. At least not right now. It’s tough to lay this number with Nola given how poor he’s been at working out of jams.
I will be curious to see how Busch Stadium plays over these final two weeks. It’s actually been a pretty good park for offense throughout the summer, but past iterations have been better pitcher’s parks. It’s cooling off now with first-pitch temps in the mid-70s and creeping into the 60s as the game goes along. Let’s see if that helps Nola’s homer problem.
San Francisco Giants (-225, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies
Well, I got my wish and now it’s time for the handicap to hopefully follow through. Logan Webb and Chase Anderson are listed for tonight, as the rain has moved out and the Giants and Rockies will play a single game this evening and a doubleheader tomorrow.
Here’s what I wrote yesterday, edited to reflect today:
Chase Anderson faced the Giants six days ago at Oracle Park and allowed six runs on six hits in just 3.1 innings. He’ll face them again today, but do so at home, as the Giants head to Denver on the heels of taking two of three against the Guardians. Anderson has a 6.49 ERA with a 6.40 FIP for the season and just came back to the team on September 3. He’s allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 7.1 innings since his return.
Webb comes in with a 3.40 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.28 FIP during what has been a very solid 2023 campaign. He’s on track to set a new career-high in fWAR, but this start is one where I have some reservations.
First, Webb has had good numbers since the start of August with a 3.16 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, but he has only struck out 37 in 51.1 innings. Second, he has allowed a 46.8% Hard Hit% in that span. While he is an extreme ground ball guy and that has kept him out of trouble for the most part, especially since his only two below average starts have been against the Braves, he’s going on the road here.