MLB schedule today has 15 games
We’ve got a full dance card on Friday with all 30 teams in action and the start of some new series. It’s also a 5-5-5 day with five games in the NL, five games in the AL, and five games on the interleague schedule. All of the games are night games as well, so that gives us all plenty of time to handicap and assess the card.
Per usual, I’ll take a look at the week that has been heading into Friday’s action and see what offensive numbers have looked like over the last four days.
Season: .247/.320/.405, .318 wOBA, .296 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.8% BB%
Mon-Thurs: .235/.308/.389, .307 wOBA, .281 BABIP, 22.2% K%, 8.6% BB%
A major reversal of fortunes on batted balls this week has led to a down week for offense across the board. What’s really interesting to me is that the Hard Hit% was 40.2%, which is definitely higher than the 39.1% mark that we have for the season, but the BABIP was 15 points lower. Home runs don’t count towards BABIP, but it had nothing to do with that, as the season HR/FB% is 12.2%, while this past week’s HR/FB% is 11.7%.
Baseball’s up-and-down nature seems to be in hyperdrive this season, so you just have to roll with the punches and do the best you can to make bets that make sense while also hoping you’re on the right side of variance, especially with runners in scoring position. (Tracking sheet)
With that, let’s dig into the Friday card.
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Here are some thoughts on the May 12 card (odds from DraftKings):
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins (-145, 7.5)
This appears to be a pretty big number down in South Beach for the matchup between the Reds and Marlins, given that it is the MLB debut for 20-year-old Eury Perez. The Marlins top prospect has not pitched above Double-A, where he had a 4.08 ERA and a 3.52 FIP in 75 innings last season and has a 2.32 ERA with a 3.78 FIP in 31 innings this season. Perez has given up 14 homers in his 106 Double-A innings, but also has 148 strikeouts against just 34 walks.
Perez, who stands 6-foot-8, was the No. 4 prospect at FanGraphs coming into the season with a fastball that easily sits in the upper 90s and he likely has a MLB-ready slider, but the depth of his arsenal is a little bit of a question, given that he only signed in pro ball back in 2019 and has been growing into his body ever since. He certainly has the stuff to be dominant and he’s going to be in a ballpark that suppresses the impact of mistake pitches, but this is a big leap to say the least.
The balloon popped for Graham Ashcraft last time out. The big right-hander allowed eight runs on six hits in 1.2 innings of work, as his lack of strikeouts caught up with him and the BABIP gods punished him for his lack of command. Ashcraft struck out 13 batters over his first two starts, but he has only punched out 17 batters over five starts since. He had allowed eight runs over his first six starts combined, but then the White Sox had a field day back on May 7.
I would assume Ashcraft bounces back here, along with the fact that the Marlins are a borderline bottom-five offense against righties. Sadly, it is challenging to put a lot of faith in the Reds offense, especially on the road, so even though I think this price is optimistic for Perez’s debut, I can’t take the Reds.
New York Mets (-115, 9) at Washington Nationals
Tylor Megill and MacKenzie Gore square off here as the Mets and Nationals come into this game with records way closer than anybody would have imagined. The Mets have lost five series in a row to drop to 18-20, while the Nationals are battling hard and have a respectable 16-21 record.
Megill has not been sharp for the Mets, who have dealt with starting pitching concerns all season long. He has a 4.33 ERA with a 5.40 FIP in his 35.1 innings of work with only 27 strikeouts against 18 walks. He’s given up five homers and actually has been a little fortunate to only allow that 4.33 ERA because of a 79.6% LOB%. For the lack of strikeouts, that’s a really high number to be able to strand a lot of walks and just shy of a hit per inning.
However, Megill has allowed just a 34.3% Hard Hit%, so he has limited hard contact and that has also allowed him to limit the damage. He’s given up three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts, but he’s also not working that deep into games.
Gore has been a pleasant surprise this season, not because of the talent, but because the Nationals have really done well developing their pitchers at the MLB level this season. Gore is a bit of a success story for them with a 3.65 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in his 37 innings of work. He’s still had a major walk rate issue and is running a .345 BABIP, but his inflated K% and the timing of his strikeouts have led to an 80.2% LOB%. He has a 35.7% K% with men on base and a 40% K% with men in scoring position. As a result, he’s been able to strand a lot of runners.
Gore has only allowed more than three runs in a start once. He’s got a 40.7% Hard Hit% in 158 plate appearances with a 50.6% GB%, so he’s also been able to limit the extra-base hits to prevent offense. I did think this Mets price was possibly a tad low, but nobody can say that they’re really playing like a team you can trust these days.
Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 11) at Colorado Rockies
Taijuan Walker and Austin Gomber are the listed hurlers for this clash at Coors between the Phillies and Rockies. Gomber has been one of the league’s most popular pitchers to bet against, but he has been better in his last three starts. He allowed 22 runs over his first four starts, but has given up three runs over his last 17 innings of work, including a home start against the Diamondbacks and road starts against the Guardians and Mets.
He allowed nine runs on nine hits in two innings to the Pirates at Coors prior to this run, so we’ll see if he can keep the good vibes going here. Gomber has only struck out 10 of the 66 batters he has faced in that span, but has only allowed 11 hits and seven walks. It’s not the kind of profile I’d want to bet on and not a string of performances I would expect to continue.
However, the Phillies are just 22nd in wOBA against LHP at .311 and have the league’s lowest BB% in that split. They are a way better offense against righties this season. Coors Field usually provides a boost for everybody, so we’ll see if that happens for Philly today.
I also don’t really want to trust Walker in this environment. He’s coming off of a really good start against a Boston offense that has seemed to get production against virtually everybody, but he had allowed 13 runs on 13 hits in 7.1 innings over the two starts prior to that. Walker has allowed seven homers over his last four outings and two of his three highest average exit velocities against in his last two starts. Remember when he left his Seattle start early with some discomfort, but then avoided an IL stint? Those last two starts have come since then.
Eight of his 10 barrels have come in his last four starts and he’s allowed his two highest Hard Hit% in these last two starts. There may still be an underlying injury there. I thought it was just a dead arm early in the season, but he’s clearly working through something. It just isn’t enough to get me to bet the Rockies because I have no idea what Gomber will provide.
San Francisco Giants (-115, 10) at Arizona Diamondbacks
John Brebbia will serve as the opener for the Giants in this one and he’ll either be followed by Alex Wood or Ross Stripling, so there is some uncertainty about the pitching plan for San Francisco as they continue the four-game set against the Snakes. Right-hander Ryne Nelson will be the starter for the home team.
Brebbia has allowed nine runs on 11 hits in 13.2 innings of work with 21 strikeouts against six walks. He had a velo drop in his last appearance and hasn’t pitched in six days, but the Giants got sick in Mexico and guys have been dealing with weight loss and weakness ever since. Brebbia is one of those guys, so he’ll get back on the slab tonight after a lengthy layoff.
My guess would be Stripling as the bulk guy, given that Wood is on the IL. If Wood gets activated prior to the game, you’ll know it’s him and he is nearing a return. Stripling has struggled with a 6.66 ERA and a 6.58 FIP in his 25.2 innings of work. He just allowed five runs on seven hits over five innings to the Brewers, but had pitched better than that in his two starts prior. He’s another of many tough guys to trust right now playing a prominent role for a team.
Ironically, so is Nelson. The Diamondbacks haven’t gotten much from Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, or Drey Jameson this season, which is a bit of a bummer since those are the guys that they are planning their pitching future around. Nelson has a 6.00 ERA with a 4.73 FIP in his 36 innings of work. He’s an extreme pitch-to-contact guy with only 22 strikeouts out of 158 batters faced and he’s allowed 45 hits.
He allowed two earned runs on seven hits over five innings of work, but he allowed 15 runs on 23 hits in his previous 14 innings. I will say that Nelson, who has a .331 BABIP against and a 62.5% LOB% has gotten a bit unlucky, particularly when you look at how solid Arizona is defensively and his league average 39.7% Hard Hit%. But, that’s the risk you take when you can’t generate strikeouts.
Another NL game that doesn’t seem to have any good edges to exploit.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 9)
Turns out I was right about a sluggish effort from the Padres on Thursday, but I was wrong about the application of the bet, as the under pushed for the article and the Twins won the game. However, anybody that got in at 8.5 got a winner, so hopefully that softened the blow of how frustrating and irritating May has been for the article picks. If you had 8, I’m really sorry. I'm surprised the line went up, but that seemed to be weather-related in a lot of ways.
Anyway, the Padres are back on the left coast now to take on the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. Game 1 features Blake Snell and Dustin May and a decision for bettors. Fade Snell or fade the Dodgers against lefties. What makes this decision even trickier is that May has a fade-worthy profile himself, posting a 2.68 ERA with a 3.46 FIP with a huge decrease in K% and a bump in BB%.
May has a .163 BA against with a .198 BABIP against on the season while pitching to a ton of contact. He has seen a bit of an uptick in strikeouts recently, as he has 16 in his last 16.1 innings of work. It sure would be nice to see more of that from him. He just fired six shutout frames against the Padres last weekend after a couple extra days of rest. He’s allowed just a 5.4% Barrel% and just a 38.4% Hard Hit%, but his low 6.2% SwStr% is a really big concern. He also had just a 3% SwStr% in that start against the Padres, despite having six strikeouts.
Snell was really solid for six innings against the Dodgers last time out. He has a 4.89 ERA with a 5.48 FIP in his 35 innings of work. He’s got 39 strikeouts, but also 21 walks. This season, he’s also seen a really big spike in his Hard Hit% up to 44.3%, which is nearly 10% above his career average and only his second season over 40% (2019). Interestingly, Snell’s three worst seasons by HH% have all come with the Padres.
It’s a profile that I don’t like to back, but he is really effective at limiting the damage for one reason or another. Also, as we know, the Dodgers are just 23rd in wOBA against lefties, though I will say, they have a 95 wRC+ and have been gradually getting better in that split. They also have a big 10.9% BB%, which typically plays well against Snell, so long as you can avoid the strikeouts.
This line is probably right, especially with May not really showcasing a whole lot of swing and miss upside. It’s a big series for both teams, so we’ll see who can get off on the right foot.
Seattle Mariners (-120, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
Speaking of teams that are bad against lefties, I present the Seattle Mariners, who are 29th in wOBA against southpaws on the season. They draw one tonight in Matthew Boyd, as the Tigers, who are just a half-game worse than the Mariners in the standings, look to move a step closer to .500. Detroit is 2-14 against the AL East and now 16-5 against everybody else.
Boyd only has one really bad start to his name, but he hasn’t worked all that deep into games with 30.2 innings over his six starts. As a result, he has a 5.28 ERA and a 4.68 FIP, even though he’s only allowed more than three earned runs once in those six outings. He gave up six runs on eight hits to a Baltimore lineup that has been in the top five against lefties all season long. The Mariners certainly don’t fit that definition, so this could be a good spot for Boyd.
The Tigers, who are 19th in wOBA at .317 and have a 103 wRC+ against lefties, get a southpaw of their own here in Marco Gonzales. Gonzales allowed eight earned runs over his first four starts, but has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts. He’s allowed 11 runs total in his last two starts. He’s the definition of a pitch-to-contact guy with 23 strikeouts out of 131 batters faced. The primary issue for the Tigers is striking out and that shouldn’t be as much of a factor against Gonzales.
Detroit’s 25.5% K% is the sixth-highest in baseball. But, Seattle’s 27.9% mark is the third-highest. Even with a handicap placed on T-Mobile Park because it is such a bad hitter’s park, the Mariners only have a 74 wRC+ against lefties. Detroit is at 103, so that’s a really big difference. Comerica Park is also a tough hitter’s park early in the season with the cold weather, so that’s factored in a bit.
You can find a bit better of a price on the Tigers at some shops, but DraftKings is +100 and I think that’s a reasonable bet here. The Tigers are the better lineup against lefties, have a higher Hard Hit% for the season, which was shocking to me, and they’ve done really well against teams on their level or at least outside of the AL East, which is in its own stratosphere.
Pick: Tigers +100
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-180, 8.5)
The wrong bullpen melted down yesterday, as the Yankees completely fell apart late in the game and the Rays continued their winning ways. Let’s see if Gerrit Cole can be the ace that New York is looking for in order to even up the series. Cole certainly has been this season overall, as he has a 2.09 ERA with a 2.61 FIP in his 51.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 58 batters and only given up two home runs, which, coincidentally, came in his last start against the Rays.
That last start was the first one in which Cole has allowed more than two runs this season. He allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits with a 6/2 K/BB ratio. While Cole has been racking up a lot of strikeouts, his SwStr% of 10.9% is one of the lowest of his career. He’s actually had three of his worst four games in that department over his last four starts and by “worst”, I mean all have been 9.4% or lower. He’s still doing a pretty good job of limiting hard contact with a 37.8% Hard Hit%, but I think it is fair to wonder if a bit of a correction is coming and if his last start was an example.
Journeyman reliever Trevor Kelley will serve as the opener for this game in front of Josh Fleming, so it isn’t the most confidence-inspiring plan from the Rays. Kelley has 37.1 MLB innings to his name with a 7.23 ERA and a 6.69 FIP. He’s allowed 31 runs on 44 hits in 37.1 innings of work. He’s only worked two innings for the Rays and allowed two runs on a couple of hits. He was in Triple-A with 11 appearances before getting called up.
Fleming has a 4.55 ERA with a 4.57 FIP in his 27.2 innings of work. He’s had two really bad outings that have accounted for 11 of the 14 runs he has given up, including his last appearance against the Yankees, in which he allowed six runs on seven hits with four walks against just one strikeout. He allowed his first two homers of the season as well.
I think it’s pretty interesting to see this total at 8.5 here in a Cole start. I did give some thought to the over despite what is a little bit of an inflated number, but the Rays are scoring a ton of runs and the Kelley/Fleming tandem looks favorable for the New York offense. I may regret leaving this one off the board.
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 8.5)
The winner for “Most Interesting Line Move of the Day” is this one in Cleveland, where it will be a perfect night for baseball between the Angels and the Guardians. Lefties Tyler Anderson and Logan Allen are the listed starters here and we’re seeing a heavy line move on Cleveland. As we’ve seen some of the team platoon split numbers emerge, we’ve seen a lot of line moves on teams that are good against lefties and bad against lefties based on the matchup.
Well, in this game, you’ve got the Angels, who are seventh in wOBA at .340 and have a 115 wRC+ against lefties, and the Guardians, who are 28th in wOBA at .274 and have a 72 wRC+ against southpaws, but the line is moving heavily on Cleveland. In Allen’s three starts, he has a 2.70 ERA with a 3.49 FIP, as he’s struck out 19 and walked five with five runs allowed on 16 hits against the Marlins, Red Sox, and Twins.
The Twins are awful against lefties. The Marlins are 12th in wOBA and the Red Sox are 13th in wOBA. This will be a good test for the rookie left-hander and the betting market seems to think that he will pass it with flying colors.
Anderson has allowed three earned runs on 10 hits in 11.2 innings of work in his last two starts with 13 strikeouts against eight walks. Prior to that, he allowed 16 earned runs over 14 innings in three starts, so he’s settled down a bit, but the walk rate really does stand out. He has a 5.40 ERA with a 6.06 FIP on the season over 31.2 innings of work. I guess it makes sense that the market would prioritize Allen over Anderson, but backing Cleveland’s inept offense at a price tag like this is something I simply cannot do.
Houston Astros (-145, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
JP France and Michael Kopech are the listed starters here, as the Astros lay a hefty number at Guaranteed Rate Field. This is France’s second start after throwing five shutout innings in his debut effort. He scattered three hits and a walk with five strikeouts and a hit by pitch. He had allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 19.1 innings of work with a 26/11 K/BB ratio in three Triple-A starts and two relief appearances prior to getting called up.
In 15 Triple- A starts last season, France worked 110.2 innings with a 3.90 ERA and struck out 136 guys against 51 walks. That’s been the story for France throughout his career. A lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. The White Sox are 27th in BB% against righties this season, so we’ll see if that cuts down on France’s free passes.
It has not been a fun season for Kopech, who has a 5.97 ERA with a 7.53 FIP in his 37.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 36, but also walked 22 and has given up 12 homers across seven starts. He just gave up four solo homers last time out against the Reds, but his offense gave him a huge cushion while that was taking place.