MLB schedule today has 15 games
The MLB second half gets underway on Friday following the All-Star Break, as teams get back to work after the only prolonged stretch of R&R that comes during the regular season. Some teams will be eager and excited to get back to the diamond, while others will be wishing that the Break could’ve gone a few more days.
The next 2.5 weeks can be a little bit uncomfortable in the clubhouse as the Trade Deadline looms. Impending free agents on non-contending teams know that they are likely to be finishing out the season in a new city. Teams on the bubble will try to play their way off of it, but the trade rumors will swirl and emotional times lie ahead. It’s coldly referred to as the “business of baseball”, but there are a lot of relationships and friendships in play.
We’ve got the 5-5-5 format again with five NL games, five AL games, and five interleague games, so it’s time to get back to work.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the July 14 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-110, 9.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
I’m always intrigued to see how teams set up their rotations coming out of the Break. Usually, the goal is to try and keep as many guys as possible on close to normal rest and hope that the others can ease back into it. Keep that in mind as you handicap these early games, since some guys will make starts with 10+ days between outings in the early part of next week.
Here, Yu Darvish will make just his second start since June 21 as the Padres battle the Phillies. These were two of the hotter offenses in the first part of July and even parts of June and warm, humid conditions with a helping breeze could assist them tonight. Darvish, who battled an unnamed illness in the late part of June, came back on July 7 and allowed three runs on seven hits to the Mets with three walks against four strikeouts. Over his last eight starts, Darvish has a 6.59 ERA with a 4.51 FIP. He has a 7.17 ERA in his last four starts, but that dates back to June 9 with the long layoff.
I really have no idea what to expect from Darvish here, but he wasn’t sharp before the illness. Cristopher Sanchez, meanwhile, had been throwing the ball pretty well. In his four starts since getting recalled, Sanchez had allowed five earned runs over 21 innings with 17 strikeouts against just two walks. The Padres have been hitting lefties quite well and rank eighth in wOBA at .342 with a 118 wRC+ since June 1.
The Padres probably won’t be Trade Deadline sellers, as they have a great roster and plenty of hope, though Juan Soto, Blake Snell, and Josh Hader could all be on the move. The next two weeks are huge for them. We’ll see how they start it, but I don’t have a bet one way or the other here.
San Francisco Giants (-135, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Giants will get back to work on Friday with Ross Stripling on the mound and the Pirates will counter with Rich Hill. Hill is a very likely trade candidate with Pittsburgh’s prolonged stretch of bad play that has pushed them out of the running in the lowly NL Central. He comes in with a 4.78 ERA, 5.64 xERA, and a 4.43 FIP in his 18 starts over 98 innings.
Hill actually has a 5.68 ERA dating back to May 23 over a span of nine starts. If we shorten that even more, he has a 6.31 ERA in his last five starts, with his most recent coming on July 7 with five runs allowed on seven hits against the Diamondbacks across four innings of work. Hill’s SwStr% in that span is just 6.5%, so he’s not missing bats, and his Hard Hit% is up at 41%. He’s primarily a 2.5-pitch pitcher and if he doesn’t have a feel for that curveball, life can be really rough.
Stripling has a 6.37 ERA with a 5.75 xERA and a 5.99 FIP in what has amounted to a lost season for him. He’s only worked 41 innings with some time spent on the IL. Since returning on June 28, Stripling has made three appearances over 8.2 innings with three runs allowed on eight hits. He’s given up a ton of hard contact, though, with a 52% Hard Hit%.
With everybody rested, the Giants could opt for any of Tristan Beck, Jakob Junis, or Sean Manaea to come out in relief of Stripling. Manaea is the lefty of the group and the Pirates have been better against lefties on the whole, so I’d assume Beck or Junis. I do feel like the Giants are much more invested in getting back to work. The Pirates lost seven of nine to end the first half and it looks like another season of being a seller.
The Giants had some guys banged up in the lineup and also had used the bullpen a lot, so I think they needed the Break and will come back ready to go. I like them at the short favorite price today.
Pick: Giants -135
Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 8.5) at New York Mets
Julio Urias and Justin Verlander fire up this weekend set at Citi Field, as the Mets face two very important weeks to decide their fate at the Trade Deadline. The Dodgers took advantage of Arizona’s July struggles to move into a tie for first place in the NL West as they had a long flight to LaGuardia to get back into the baseball mindset.
Urias is having a really rough season by his lofty standards. He’s got a 4.76 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 4.90 FIP in his 64.1 innings pitched. He just returned from about six weeks on the IL and made two starts across nine innings with seven runs on nine hits. He bounced back with a big effort in the second one against the Pirates with eight strikeouts and just two runs on three hits. I think it’s really tough to know what we’ll get from him, though he has only allowed a 16% Hard Hit% in those two starts since returning.
Verlander checks in with a 3.60 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 4.00 FIP across his 70 innings of effort. Recently, though, he’s been sharper with two earned runs allowed over his last 18 innings of work. However, he only has 13 strikeouts in that span, so he’s having issues generating swing and miss. He’s not as sharp as we’ve always seen him. He’s struggling to throw first-pitch strikes and the stuff just isn’t explosive.
I think this is a tricky handicap. The Dodgers do hit for a lot of power and Verlander will give up home runs as a fly ball guy who is around the plate a lot, but his HR/FB% is actually under 10% this season and he’s induced a few more grounders while trying to adjust to his decreased velo and less explosive stuff.
This one is an easy pass for me. Rain and storms are also a factor in the forecast.
Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 10) at Cincinnati Reds
The biggest series of the weekend is this one, as the Reds host the Brewers. Game 1 features Corbin Burnes against Graham Ashcraft, which would normally feel like a huge advantage for the Brewers, but you can see what this line is and DraftKings actually has the highest number in the market on Milwaukee. Other places are even closer to a moneyline pick ‘em in this one.
Burnes has a 3.94 ERA with a 3.65 xERA and a 4.28 FIP in his 18 starts over 107.1 innings pitched. His K% is way down, his BB% is way up, and his GB% is way down, as he’s allowed 14 HR in those 18 starts after allowing 23 HR in 33 starts last season.
Burnes did respond with a solid effort against Cincinnati last Friday with six innings and two runs allowed on three hits, though he did walk four and gave up another homer. He pitched well against the Pirates in the start prior to that. While his numbers are far from Burnesian, he’s still had more good starts than bad, allowing three or fewer runs in 12 of his 18 starts. The lack of strikeouts has led to more balls in play, though Burnes still only has a .245 BABIP against. The seven homers allowed with men on base have been particularly hurtful.
This line sure seems to imply a lot of faith in Ashcraft, who has a 6.28 ERA with a 5.53 xERA and a 5.36 FIP for the season. The full-season numbers only tell a partial story, as Ashcraft got off to a nice start, but has a 9.66 ERA with a 6.78 FIP in his last 10 starts. That sample size even includes his last two starts, where he’s allowed two runs on 10 hits in 12.2 innings of work with a 9/5 K/BB ratio. Ashcraft’s last two starts have been the exception and not the norm, but he’s always been a guy bursting with potential.
Has he tapped into it? Has he gotten lucky? He gave up a lot of hard contact to the Padres, but kept the Nationals at bay with his best contact management numbers since April. The start against Washington came on the road, where Ashcraft has been substantially better. In 43 innings at home, he has a 7.95 ERA with a .389 wOBA against and has allowed 10 of his 13 home runs. This start will be at home on a hot night in Cincinnati.
Very tough handicap here. It’s an easy pass for me, but the line on the Cincinnati side with Ashcraft’s body of work surprises me, especially when you consider that the books still have the Brewers favored over the Reds to win the NL Central. For Milwaukee to win it, Burnes needs to be a lot better in the second half, but he isn’t getting much respect here.
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-180, 9)
Trevor Williams and Miles Mikolas meet at Busch Stadium in this one, as the Cardinals and Nationals get back after it. I’m not sure either team is excited for the start of the second half. St. Louis GM John Mozeliak said over the Break that the Cardinals are absolutely trading people, so this starts a pretty uncomfortable stretch for the team. Today’s starter is not on the trade block with over $35 million still on the books over the next two seasons, but Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty very much are.
Jordan Hicks is virtually a lock to be moved as well. I also think Paul Goldschmidt could possibly get traded, as he would net the biggest return of any chip. With the Cardinals 11.5 games out, there will be lots of moving parts, including manager Oliver Marmol.
So, that’s what St. Louis gets to deal with over the next few weeks. Mikolas comes into this start as today’s highest pitcher by fWAR. He has 2.0 fWAR with a 4.23 ERA, 5.01 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP, as FanGraphs’ calculation of fWAR incorporates FIP heavily. He allowed 16 runs on 29 hits in his first three starts to open the season, but was good for a prolonged stretch after that before hitting a few bumps in June. Since June 4, Mikolas has a 5.02 ERA with a 3.72 FIP, He’s got a 62.3% LOB% accounting for part of the trouble, but that’s a byproduct of a 10.9% K%. It’s hard to strand runners if you can’t strike them out.
He’s also allowed a 42.5% Hard Hit%, which is not usually what we see from Mikolas. I just wish I had more trust in Williams and the Nats. The Nationals offense has been putrid against righties all season long. For all of St. Louis’s problems, the offense has performed well throughout the season, including the fifth-ranked wOBA against RHP since June 1.
Williams is a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has a 4.45 ERA with a 5.14 xERA and a 5.41 FIP in his 91 innings pitched. He’s actually got the lowest K% of his career at 17% and highest Barrel% at 10.3%. He’s allowed at least three runs in eight of his last 10 starts with a 4.61 ERA and a 5.94 FIP in that span. With Washington’s paltry offense, sometimes that’s more than enough for the other team. With St. Louis’s excellent offense, even though things are uncomfortable, this group can still rake.
It’s a pass from me, but I’d be very wary of laying big numbers on STL as the second half gets going.
Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers (-140, 8.5)
The Guardians and Rangers fire up the second half as division leaders with a matchup between Aaron Civale and Jon Gray. Cleveland will have to avoid getting swept in this series because the Twins are playing the A’s to get their second half going. Civale’s recent returns are getting a lot of respect here, but this line is also indicative of how the Rangers have played lately.
Texas’s regression with RISP has hit like a ton of bricks. As I mentioned on yesterday’s edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets, Jacob deGrom is still second in fWAR for the Rangers and he hasn’t pitched since April 28. This is not a very good pitching staff. Texas is batting .221 with RISP since June 15, so they’re not scoring runs in bunches anymore and they have struggled a bit as a result. They are 10-14 in their last 24 games.
Gray is a wild card going into this one. I think some downtime to catch his breath is a good thing. After firing a complete game with 12 strikeouts against the Cardinals on June 7, he came down with a blister that fed into an awful start against the Blue Jays with six runs allowed over 2.1 innings. He bounced back nicely against the Yankees, who were the worst offense in baseball in June, before a couple of subpar outings against the Astros and Red Sox.
Gray only has 12 strikeouts over 19.1 innings since the blister issue popped up. That looks more like the early part of the season for him when he wasn’t getting a lot of strikeouts. He had a patch in the middle where he found it and really dominated, but now he’s not missing as many bats again. But, with nine days between starts, I’d expect that the blister is a thing of the past. Cleveland doesn’t strike out much, though, so we’ll see a lot of balls in play.
For the season, Gray has a 3.29 ERA with a 4.37 FIP, so there are some negative regression signs built into the profile, including his 78.7% LOB%.
Civale comes in with a 2.56 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.62 FIP, but he’s thrown the ball really well since coming back from the IL on June 2. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his seven starts. He’s got 36 strikeouts in 40 innings pitched, including nine strikeouts last time out against the Royals. He’s allowed just a 31.5% Hard Hit% as he’s mixed his pitches well and kept the opposition off-balance. Over his last four starts, he’s had double-digit SwStr% numbers as well, but the Rangers are better than the A’s, Brewers, Cubs, and Royals.
I don’t really have a play here. I think the Rangers needed a bit of a break. Cleveland was playing pretty well going into the break and I think it may have actually been a detriment to them, though some downtime for the bullpen may not have been a bad thing. Guess we’ll see what Gray looks like here, since I think that’s the most interesting part of the game.
Tampa Bay Rays (-265, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Rays have been a mediocre team for a while now, which has cut their lead in the AL East down to two games as play resumes. But, they get a good chance here against the Royals to bank some wins and get things off on the right foot. Tyler Glasnow gets the call here in this one against rookie Alec Marsh.
This should be a good spot and a good matchup for Glasnow, who has 64 strikeouts in just 41.2 innings of work. He does have a 4.10 ERA, but a 3.62 FIP and a 2.74 xFIP, so some of his advanced stats do show positive regression indicators. Over his last three starts, Glasnow has 31 strikeouts against just three walks in 16.1 innings pitched, including five excellent innings against the Royals. He allowed some hard contact to the Braves and Mariners in that span, but the Royals didn’t barrel anything. That’s the only start for Glasnow in eight tries without a barrel.
This will be the third start of Marsh’s young career. He’s allowed eight runs (seven earned) on nine hits in 42 batters faced with 10 strikeouts against seven walks. He’s faced the Dodgers and Twins to get things going and has given up three home runs while not inducing many grounders.
Not much more to add on this one. Weather also a major factor in this one. Most of the games have some sort of rain/thunder chance. Keep an eye on those games because they can wreck bullpens in the early going and make it tough for teams to really catch up.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (-150, 8.5)
How many more Shohei Ohtani starts will we see for the Angels this season? This is such a weird trade market because only a few teams have the assets required to get him, but it would be trading a big chunk of the minor league system for a player that you either have for two months or you end up paying more than $500 million in order to stay.
The Angels are one of those teams to watch coming out of the Break. Things went south in a hurry for them. Between the Mike Trout injury and losses in nine of the last 10 games, the playoffs feel like a real reach at this point. They’re five back in the AL Wild Card hunt and seven back in the division.
Ohtani struggled in his last start prior to the Break, as he allowed five runs on seven hits, but a blister was mostly to blame for that one. He walked four and only struck out five. It’s been 10 days between starts, so the blister should be managed or maybe even gone at this point. He has a 3.32 ERA with a 4.02 FIP in his 100.1 innings pitched. The numbers are good and he’s had a ton of dominant starts. Houston has seen a lot of him, which could help, but the Astros also have basically nothing but righties in the lineup and Ohtani has held RHB to a .277 wOBA on the season with a 34.3% K%.
J.P. France gets the call for Houston today, as he has a 3.26 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 4.79 FIP in 66.1 innings of work. France had big K% numbers in the minors and high BB% marks, but he’s had neither at the MLB level. He’s been a pitch-to-contact guy and has a .254 BABIP against with an 83.6% LOB%. He’s a negative regression candidate in a lot of categories in my estimation, but I’m still not eager to lay this Angels price for the reasons mentioned above.
France also has a 36.9% Hard Hit% and a 7.4% Barrel%, so his contact management numbers have been pretty good. The most important thing about today for Houston is that Yordan Alvarez is going out on a rehab assignment, so he’ll be back soon. I’d also look for them to be big players in the trade market for a left-handed bat or two.
Minnesota Twins (-190, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics
Despite having several days to decide, the A’s have not yet named a starter for today. Kenta Maeda will go for the Twins, but Oakland has a TBD on the board. With everybody rested, there are 100 different ways that they could go. Guess we’ll see what they decide.