MLB schedule today has 14 games
We were supposed to have just 10 games on Friday, but four postponements from Thursday meant a much larger schedule to round out the work week. Friday is another day with a bunch of day games, but we do have a few more evening games than we’ve seen the last couple of days. Eventually the schedule will get back to normal and settle down, but today is not that day.
There were only six games on Thursday, so there aren’t a lot of notable stats to talk about, but the Giants scored 16 runs against the White Sox and have scored 11.7 runs per game in their three wins and one run per game in their three losses. Josiah Gray, who normally throws batting practice, fired a gem in Colorado against the Rockies. It was the 11th 1-0 game at Coors Field all-time, the first since 2018 and the second since 2010. To quote Ron Burgundy in , “I’m not even mad. That’s amazing.” But, honestly, I am a little mad. (Tracking sheet)
We also saw some notable velocity drops for Kevin Gausman and Chris Sale in their respective starts. Gausman’s final stat line was great and Sale had a bunch of strikeouts, but the velo decreases are concerning. I’ll keep an eye on them going forward.
Also, just a quick reminder that the games are listed by rotation number, not first pitch, so that means NL first, AL second and Interleague last, but rescheduled games come at the bottom by rotation number, so yesterday's rainouts are at the bottom today.
Keep an ear out for the newest edition of VSiN Daily Baseball Bets.
Here are some thoughts on the April 7 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-125, 9.5)
Jared Shuster’s MLB debut didn’t go the way he had hoped. The 24-year-old gave up four runs on six hits with five walks and just one strikeout over 4.2 innings against the lowly Nationals. It was a rough first inning for the kid, who went 1B, 1B, BB, 1B, BB, BB, lineout, sac fly to give up four runs and put his team behind the eight-ball. The walks didn’t help, but the batted balls were 105.8, 100, 81.4, 91.9, 97.5, and 71.4. When all was said and done, he allowed just two more hard-hit balls and got the Braves into the fifth with a bit of a chance.
Shuster had a 4.25 ERA with a 5.62 FIP in 48.2 innings in Triple-A last season. Double-A wasn’t enough of a challenge, but Triple-A proved to be one, as he allowed 10 homers after only giving up eight in 90.2 innings at Double-A. His arsenal is a little bit limited with a three-pitch mix and a fastball that sits 89-91, so he really has to have pinpoint control and command to be effective. He didn’t have that in his debut, but he gets another crack here.
Nick Martinez allowed four runs on six hits himself, but did so over seven innings in his 2023 debut. Martinez is a guy that I’m not terribly keen on as a starter. As a starter last season, Martinez allowed a .269/.357/.468 slash and a .359 wOBA over 52.1 innings covering 230 plate appearances. He was far more effective in a relief role, but the Padres decided to use him as a starter at the outset of this season.
His BB% as a starter last season was 11.7%, but it was just 6.4% as a reliever. His K% was 1.6% higher in relief. He allowed a .209/.271/.328 slash with a .268 wOBA in that role as well. I’m not entirely sure what the Padres see in him as a starter, other than a desire to use a six-man rotation early in the year.
All of that said, I don’t see a big betting edge here. This is a pretty high total given the big names for both offenses and I could see a scenario in which neither starter excels and this becomes a bullpen game.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8.5)
Jack Flaherty had one of the oddest stat lines you’ll ever see in his 2023 debut against the Blue Jays. He didn’t give up a run or a hit in five innings, but issued seven walks. He struck out four of the 22 batters he faced. It wasn’t a very encouraging start for Flaherty, who sat 91 mph with the fastball, over two ticks below 2022 and 2.2 ticks below any other season of his career. The only silver lining is that he only allowed two hard-hit balls.
Flaherty’s misses weren’t even competitive pitches, as the Blue Jays had a 10% O-Swing%, so they pretty much never chased against him. He had a stretch of pitches where he barely hit 90 on the radar gun before inching up a little bit later in his start. Maybe it was just mechanical, but it was odd. Everything about it was just odd, especially when you consider that he was pumping 95 in the spring.
Flaherty only worked 36 innings last year with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.97 FIP, so expectations weren’t that high for him anyway, but I honestly have no idea what to think right now.
Aces had a mixed bag of results over the first two days of the season, but Brandon Woodruff did not. He fired six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts against the Cubs. The stuff looked explosive and crisp and his first start as a 30-year-old went well. Woodruff threw a lot of changeups in that start at the expense of his slider and his curveball. The slider is typically his go-to secondary pitch against righties and the changeup is against lefties, so that’s what we saw, as the Cubs sent a bunch of lefties at him.
He’ll have a bit of a different approach with the Cardinals, but I’d still expect a pretty decent outing. I’m not really expecting one from Flaherty. We did see this pop up 15 cents in support of Woodruff and the Brewers overnight, which took away any value it had.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (-120, 11.5)
I’m still amazed at how I bet an over in a Coors Field game that finished 1-0. Do this long enough and you’ll probably see it all. Anyway, turn the page and move on. How bad is Jose Urena? Look at the line on this game. The Nationals are 1-6 and have scored 17 runs in seven games. They’re -22 in run differential already. They’re anywhere from +100 to +110 in this game because of the presence of Urena.
Sure, MacKenzie Gore threw a good game against the Braves in his 2023 debut, but he still has a 4.30 ERA and a 4.05 FIP at the MLB level over 75.1 innings of work. Gore allowed one run on three hits with six strikeouts and four walks in Washington’s only win. He only allowed two hard-hit balls, which is incredible against Atlanta. Maybe he merits a little more respect, but still. This has so much to do with Urena and the rule changes that are likely to hurt him more than almost any other pitcher.
He allowed four runs on five hits in 2.1 innings last time out against the Padres. He didn’t strike out any of the 16 batters he faced, but walked four of them. Urena had one of the lowest K% marks last season at 14.6% and made it worse with a 10% BB%. I honestly cannot believe the Rockies don’t have some young pitcher in the system that can outperform this guy. It’s not even worth wasting the innings on his arm. And the rule changes make him even worse because he can’t overpower anybody and issues a bunch of walks to go along with all the balls in play. He’s also a guy with a 48.2% GB%, so the shift ban is even more hurtful.
As terrible as Urena is, the Nationals are really bad themselves. And they definitely project better against lefties than righties in my opinion, yesterday notwithstanding, of course. Dumpster fire of a game.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-230, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Madison Bumgarner’s first start was so bad that he got sent for an MRI on his pitching arm. He allowed five runs on four hits with four walks and two strikeouts against the Dodgers. He gave up all five runs in the first inning and battled his way through it to give three scoreless frames, but there weren’t a lot of redeeming qualities either. Eno Sarris said that Bumgarner appeared to be tipping pitches.
He wasn’t tipping the scales with his velo, that’s for sure. His fastball velocity was down 2.1 mph and he had drops on the cutter, curveball and changeup as well. He also had spin rate decreases and complained of arm fatigue after his start. For a guy that had a 4.88 ERA with a 4.85 FIP in 2022, a 4.67 ERA with a 4.63 FIP in 2021, and a horrific COVID year, I think we can reasonably assume that the stuff just isn’t MLB quality anymore.
Kershaw was terrific in his first start of 2023 with one run allowed on four hits over six innings. He struck out nine and didn’t walk a batter. Against a Diamondbacks lineup that will put a lot of balls in play this season, nine strikeouts in 21 batters is special, along with a high first-pitch strike rate and a lot of chases. He had 13 whiffs in 35 swings, with all of them coming on sliders and curveballs.
This is definitely a steep price to pay. It might be worth it given how bad Bumgarner is, but neither side nor total interest me much here. This line also got bet up pretty heavily on the Dodgers.
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 7.5)
The Guardians and Mariners will run it back after playing four at T-Mobile Park last week. It is a cool, crisp day with a breeze blowing in for Aaron Civale and Logan Gilbert. Civale allowed just two hits over seven shutout innings with three strikeouts and a walk in his first start of 2023. I mentioned that his 4.92 ERA from last season is definitely misleading, as he had a 3.87 FIP and pitched rather well for decent stretches, but also had three trips to the IL.
Civale only allowed five hard-hit balls out of the 19 put in play by the Mariners and rolled through his seven innings in just 80 pitches. We saw a much higher rate of cutters from Civale than what we saw last season at the expense of his sinker and a solid 25% curveball rate. He actually had some spin rate increases across the board with his pitches in that start, possibly a sign of better health, at least at the outset of the season.
Seattle is off to a slow start because the bats haven’t woken up just yet. They’re batting .222/.286/.376 as a team with a 24.3% K% and a 6.3% BB%. The pitching has been good and Gilbert was terrific in his first start with a solo homer among his four hits and seven strikeouts in six innings. The homer was one of four hard-hit balls allowed by Gilbert, who used his secondary pitches more frequently with increased slider and curveball usage. That led to a 16.5% SwStr% and a lot more chases outside the zone from a lineup that does not chase or swing and miss very often.
This game will likely be a tight, low-scoring affair that doesn’t yield a ton of betting value one way or the other, but I am watching to see if the new Gilbert arsenal is for real. That would really excite me for his prospects going forward. I think there might be a little value on Seattle here, so I'm going to ponder this game a little more. I just need to do the MLB pod and record my Ohio-specific show, so time's a factor on Friday mornings.
I’m not seeing totals well right now, but I’m surprised this total moved up to 7.5. The ball absolutely does not carry in Cleveland in April and we’ll have temps in the low 40s with the wind blowing in a bit from left center. Odd move there.
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays (-275, 7.5)
The Rays have had the softest schedule in baseball to this point with series against the Tigers and Nationals, but they’re undefeated and have gotten some absurd pitching in those games. They have not allowed more than two runs in a game and have not won by fewer than four runs. All you can do is play the teams on your schedule and this has been complete dominance from Tampa Bay.
They get another bottom-feeder here in the A’s, who make the cross-country trek on the heels of a loss in extras to the Guardians. Ken Waldichuk gets the start for Oakland in his second start of the season. He allowed six runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings with three homers allowed against the Angels in what was his eighth MLB start. He only allowed six hard-hit balls, but three were barrels and those are never going to be a good thing.
Waldichuk had a 4.93 ERA and a 4.30 FIP in seven starts over 34.2 innings after being acquired from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas deal. His Triple-A numbers were solid, but he has had some issue with both walks and home runs in other minor league stops. I don’t see a need to gamble on any upset potential here.
Eflin had a nice opening start for the Rays with five innings of one-run ball on three hits with five strikeouts. I’m always on the lookout for changes made by the Rays when they add a new pitcher and there were several notable ones here. Eflin threw 55% fastballs and sinkers last season, which was lower than previous seasons, but still up there. In his first Rays start, he only threw 33.8% fastball/sinker with a huge increase in cutter usage. He also threw more changeups and curveballs.
Eflin’s curveball spin rate was up from 2381 rpm to 2540 rpm in that outing. He also had a spin rate increase on his cutter and even sinker. Opposing batters only hit .155 with a .241 SLG on his curveball last season. If the Rays can really optimize that pitch and fix his cutter, they’re going to work their way into having another ace on the staff.
It’s a big number and the Rays will probably win and possibly win easily, but with a low-scoring expectation and a home team, I can’t take the run line. The Rays also jumped about 20-30 cents from the time I wrote this to publishing time.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-125, 9.5)
Two pitchers I consider underrated square off at Angel Stadium here, as Chris Bassitt tries to bounce back from an ugly effort in St. Louis and Patrick Sandoval tries for a good start against a tough lineup. Bassitt was completely shelled in that outing, as he allowed nine runs on 10 hits, including four home runs. He didn’t miss many bats and failed to strike out any of the 19 batters he faced.
Bassitt gave up 12 hard-hit balls and five barrels. For a guy that posted a 32.7% and a 32.8% Hard Hit% the last two seasons, the complete lack of command was a stunner. He allowed 34 barrels in 516 batted ball events last season and has already allowed five in 19 BBE this year. Bassitt’s velo was down 1.2 mph on the fastball and 1.5 mph on the sinker. Long innings will lead to velo decreases, but Bassitt simply never really had his velo in that start. It is worth noting he didn’t really have great velo in the spring either.
While his velocity was down, his spin rates weren’t down too much, so I’m not working under the theory that it is an injury, though it very well could be. He only had four whiffs in 32 swings and the Cardinals were extremely aggressive with him. He allowed four runs on five hits in the first inning in the span of just 16 pitches.