It's the second-to-last Thursday of the season and despite a small slate, there's oodles of value on the board.
Our MLB analysts have pinpointed four games, including this afternoon's Brewers-Cardinals matchup. After that, we have two picks on Mets vs. Phillies and one each on Pirates vs. Cubs and Tigers vs. Athletics.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Thursday, September 21st.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:15 p.m. | Brewers ML (-105) | |
| 7:15 p.m. | Under 8.5 (+102) | |
| 7:15 p.m. | Phillies ML (-160) | |
| 7:40 p.m. | Under 8.5 (-105) | |
| 9:40 p.m. | Athletics F5 RL +0.5 (+106) | |
Brewers'vs.'Cardinals
Thursday, September 211:15 p.m.'ETMLB NetworkBrewers ML (-105)
By D.J. James
Miles Mikolas is an awful pitcher, and the St. Louis Cardinals are, rightfully so, mailing it in at this stage of a terrible season. Mikolas has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He has a 5.81 ERA in the second half. On the season, he owns a 4.84 ERA against a 5.42 xERA, so regression was already forthcoming.
Adding onto that, his barrel rate is 9.4%, his average exit velocity allowed is 90.5 mph and his hard-hit rate is 42.9%. Finally, he is only striking out 15.1% of hitters, even though he has a 4.1% walk rate.
His opponent will be Wade Miley, who has a 3.38 ERA against a 4.46 xERA. His barrel rate is 7.7%, his average exit velocity allowed is 87.2 mph and his hard-hit rate is 31.3%. He only strikes out 15.7% of hitters and walks about 7.8% of them. That said, he is a ground-ball guy and always has been. His ground-ball rate is 46.1% and in the 70th percentile of the league this season. Lastly, he holds a 3.89 ERA in the second half.
The Cardinals have struggled against lefties this month. They have a .673 OPS and 85 wRC+ with a 9.1% walk rate and 15.9% strikeout rate.
The Brewers have not necessarily crushed rightie s, but they have a .723 OPS and 97 wRC+ off of righties this month with a 10.2% walk rate and 25.5% strikeout rate. Since Mikolas barely strikes anyone out, this should not be too much of a concern.
The Brew Crew have six qualified hitters over a .300 xwOBA this month, which is not spectacular but should get the job done against Mikolas and a weak St. Louis bullpen.
Since Milwaukee has the fifth-best xFIP in relief this month, they should hold down the fort.
Back Milwaukee to -135.
Mets'vs.'Phillies
Thursday, September 217:15 p.m.'ETMLB.TVUnder 8.5 (+102)
By Kenny Ducey
I can't believe I'm saying this, but David Peterson is in a good spot on Thursday night against the Phillies.
Sure, I've given Peterson plenty of flack in the past – and I will continue to do so considering he's given up 21 hits in just 15 2/3 innings this mont h. I'm generally not a fan of a guy who regularly pitches with plenty of runners on base.