MLB best bets for underpriced starting pitchers
 

MLB best bets for starting pitchers undervalued in today's betting market

One of the most utilized terms in sports betting is value, and in turn, what the best ways for finding it are. In baseball, being able to spot pitchers that aren’t consistently overpriced but still produce results is a good way to do it. In this piece, I detail 13 different starting pitchers that have been quite effective in the early going yet still seem to be underpriced by oddsmakers at this point in the season. That means they are usually an underdog in their games.

These guys aren’t the big-name pitchers we’ve come to expect huge results from year after year, such as Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani, or Justin Verlander, to name a few. Rather, these starters are producing profits despite being an underdog on average line. None of the group has been dominant per se, but they have demonstrated the ability to keep their team in games and get the necessary support from their lineup and bullpen to win.

These pitchers generally have not commanded respect in the past either, which is helping to make them underpriced right now. Some of them are pitching in the shadows of bigger stars and not taken as seriously. Regardless, let’s take advantage while we can. The pitchers are sorted in order of the average price they pitch. Specifically for a guy like Patrick Corbin, the number +79 is equivalent to being a +179 underdog each time he starts:

Patrick Corbin – Washington Nationals     

Average Price: +79

Team Record: 5-5, +3.2 units     

Key Stats – ERA: 4.47, WHIP: 1.385, Ks/9: 5.43      

Steve's thoughts: Heading into the season, Corbin was rightfully considered poison by bettors, as his 2021 and 2022 numbers rendered him virtually unbackable. However, he has put together quality outings in seven straight starts, and the Nationals have won in five of his last eight appearances. His numbers aren’t scintillating, but the Washington lineup is improved. He has walked just four hitters in his last 42+ innings, and he is usually a hefty underdog.

Trevor Williams – Washington Nationals  

Average Price: +53.9        

Team Record: 5-4, +3.45 units  

Key Stats – ERA: 4.26, WHIP: 1.264, Ks/9: 6.5          

Steve's thoughts: Corbin’s teammate Williams has also been a good producer for bettors lately, with the Nats winning three of his last four starts. His season WHIP is a respectable 1.264, and although his consistency in either performance and start length hasn’t matched that of Corbin, he is someone that should be given consideration in the underdog role.

Matt Boyd – Detroit Tigers          

Average Price: +40

Team Record: 5-3, +4.85 units  

Key Stats – ERA: 6.21, WHIP: 1.46, Ks/9: 7.88          

Steve's thoughts: Boyd has endured a couple of bad starts that have soiled his overall season numbers. Even still, his 1.46 WHIP is respectable, and his 4-0 team record on the road is proving to be a profit-making enterprise. In fact, the Tigers are +6.6 units in his road starts. Boyd had a solid 2021 season and pitched well out of the bullpen last year. Back in the starter role for ’23, he has the potential to be a producer for the improving Tigers.

Edward Cabrera – Miami Marlins

Average Price: +32.2        

Team Record: 5-4, +2 units        

Key Stats – ERA: 5.13, WHIP: 1.587, Ks/9: 12.27     

Steve's thoughts: Cabrera is a big-time power pitcher that could be ace material if he gained better command. He has walked 30 hitters in nine starts, and that has contributed greatly to his overall mediocre numbers. However, when he’s dialed in, he can very tough. His 12.27 Ks/9 is evidence of that. Cabrera has only received 29 runs of support in his outings, yet remains a profitable pitcher for Miami.

Vincent Velasquez – Pittsburgh Pirates

Average Price: +29.6        

Team Record: 4-3, +2.4 units     

Key Stats – ERA: 3.06, WHIP: 1.16, Ks/9: 8.66          

Steve's thoughts: Velasquez is on the disabled list right now and figures to be back in a couple of weeks. It’s unfortunate too, as he was on a roll prior to the stint, having allowed just four earned runs in his most recent 28 innings. He also struck out 30 hitters in that span. The Pirates are cooling off now, but perhaps the injection of Velasquez back into the rotation can help get that turned around.

Brayan Bello – Boston Red Sox     

  
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By VSiN