We have a new week of MLB action ahead of us and I’ve picked out the 3 plays I like most on Monday’s baseball slate. I went 3-0 with my Friday picks, so let’s hope for more of the same.
Today I am targeting a couple of first 5-inning plays and a team total bet, so let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks. Remember to also check out our MLB predictions for the whole of Monday’s slate.
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Blue Jays ML first 5 innings vs Marlins (-145, DraftKings)
The Blue Jays and Marlins open up a 3-game in south Florida. Toronto sends Jose Berrios to the mound, who has been their best pitcher over the last month-plus. After struggling early, Berrios' last 8 starts have been fantastic. He's gone 5-1 with a .194 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and opposing hitters are batting just .204 against him. Berrios allowed more than 2 earned runs just once over that span. He's facing a Marlins lineup that is good at putting the bat on the ball, but still bottom 5 in the league in runs scored. At home against righties, Miami is 25th in MLB in OPS, 27th'in walk rate, and they have a wRC+ of 96 – that's 4% below average. Berrios has also been excellent with runners in scoring position holding opposing hitters to a .197 batting average. This should keep Miami from scoring early.
Miami will start Bryan Hoeing. He started two games early in the season after being called up in mid-April but has worked out of the bullpen over the last 6 weeks. Hoeing last worked on June 12, so he's plenty rested, but he may not throw more than 2 or 3 innings. Hoeing has been effective, but opposing hitters are batting .263 against him and his WHIP of 1.38 could play into the Blue Jays’ favor as they have the highest batting average in baseball against righties on the road and they are 3rd in wRC+ and 4th in OPS. I'll back the Blue Jays to have a lead in the first 5 innings.