Not every star will suit up for the Ohio State Buckeyes as they face the Missouri Tigers in the 2023 Cotton Bowl, and our Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction based on the best college football odds at the best sportsbooks sees that as an issue for Friday's favorites.
After a relatively ho-hum college football bowl season to this point, we're treated to our first matchup between top-10 teams in the final college football playoff rankings on Friday when the No. 9 Missouri Tigers (10-2) face the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) in the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
While the Buckeyes held the top spot in the rankings earlier this season, a season-ending loss to archrival Michigan – the favorite in our College Football Championship odds – dropped this group from the playoff into its 11th consecutive trip to a New Year's Six bowl game. Meanwhile, the Tigers are preparing for their first NY6 bowl of the playoff era with a chance to finish as a top-10 team for the first time in a decade.
The line movement for this game has been aggressive in recent weeks and even over the last few days, with Ohio State climbing to a 5.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites. You can see how much it's moved even since Wednesday, when we originally made the bet below, though we'd still favor the underdogs (clearly) at this more generous price.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction and our college football picks for Friday's Cotton Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction: Cotton Bowl
Friday's Cotton Bowl presents bettors with an age-old dilemma: should you back the team that overachieved to reach a big-time bowl game? Or the one that missed out on the playoff and backslid into a game it was overqualified to play in?
Clearly, the betting market is torn on this one, with the Buckeyes dealing as 2-point favorites – among the shortest prices of this entire bowl season. The line for this game has bounced around amid speculation on which players would suit up for Ohio State, which has already seen 14 players hit the transfer portal.
The biggest name among them is starting QB Kyle McCord, whose departure puts freshman Devin Brown in line for his first career start. The dual-threat passer ranked as high as No. 1 in the 2022 recruiting class coming out of high school, though there's a reason McCord beat him out for the job entering this season.
Brown will finally get his shot on Friday, but he'll likely be without all-world receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who wasn't pra cticing with the rest of the team this week. He'll also be without two of his team's top three rushers in Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams, and top back TraVeyon Henderson could join Harrison as a late opt-out ahead of the NFL draft. (Editor's note: Henderson has said he'll play Friday.)
Even if Henderson does play, the Buckeyes have struggled to create explosive plays in the run game all season, even with the threat of Harrison keeping defenses honest. Missouri's defense has been vulnerable at the second level but still ranked in the top 20 in opponent rushing success rate (36.2%) and percentage of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage (21.4%).
If this game falls on Brown's shoulders, how will he respond? The freshman passer was inaccurate and inconsistent in 22 attempts this season, and he faces a Tigers defense that features two first-team All-SEC performers and excels at creating chaos for opp osing QBs, especially along the front seven.
On the other side, Missouri owns a top-25 scoring offense with legit talent across the board. QB Brady Cook (3,189 yards) lit up SEC defenses all year long, while Heisman Trophy finalist Cody Schrader ranked fourth in rushing yards (1,489) and receiver Luther Burden had just 14 fewer receiving yards (1,197) than Harrison did for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes should be at full strength defensively, which is a terrifying thought for a unit that ranked second in scoring and fourth in EPA/play. Yet Missouri's offense ranked 17th in EPA/play – just five spots below Ohio State – and was even better at creating explosive plays and avoiding critical mistakes than Friday's counterparts.
Ryan Day might still have more aggregate talent at his disposal on Friday, even with opt-outs, but Eliah Drinkwitz's group hung for four quarters with Georgia and LSU, and won their ot her 10 games by an average of 15 points. Give me the points on the team with more continuity, more experience under center, and a heck of a lot more to play for.
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Missouri vs. Ohio State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri +1.5 | Missouri +1.5 | Missouri +1 | Missouri +2 | Missouri +2 |
| -112 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
It's rare to see so much disagreement among our best sports betting apps this close to kickoff, but that speaks to how much uncertainty there is surrounding this year's Cotton Bowl.
Three of our five best sportsbooks are trading Missouri at +1 or +1.5, with BetMGM offering the best price in the market on Ohio State (-1). On the other side, Caesars and bet365 are each dealing Missouri +2, which is the price we're looking to bet ahead of Friday.
My choice between those two books is bet365, but that's entirely a personal preference. I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see if either shop has a bonus worth taking advantage of.
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Missouri vs. Ohio State odds
Missouri vs. Ohio State odds analysis
This line has yo-yo'ed over the last few weeks amid uncertainty on which players would suit up for the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
Ohio State initially opened as a 6.5-point favorite to win Friday's bowl game, but the line moved as many as nine points to Missouri -2.5 when it looked like the Buckeyes' top stars might all opt out. Now, with only Harrison looking likely to sit, the line is climbing again in favor of Ohio State. (Editor's note: the line has since moved to Ohio State -5.5 as of Friday afternoon.)
We still like Missouri's chances of pulling off the outright upset given who we suspect will take the field on Friday.
The total has danced around, too, opening at 51.5 with plenty of movement on its way to a near-consensus of 49. The lone outlier is FanDuel, which is hanging a rogue 48.5 as of early Wednesday.
Cotton Bowl game info
- When: Friday, Dec. 29 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
Missouri-Ohio State prediction made Wednesday at 5:15 a.m. ET.
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