The Alabama Crimson Tide earned the top seed in the SEC Tournament, and they will see their first action Friday against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Here are the best Mississippi State-Alabama college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.
As the Brandon Miller situation has become a bigger issue, the play of the Crimson Tide has suffered. They are 4-1 in their last five games, but they have hardly looked like one of the best teams in the country. During that span, they won two games in overtime – one of which came at home against the Auburn Tigers, defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks by three points, and lost 67-61 to the Texas A&M Aggies in their season finale.
The Bulldogs are right on the cut line for March Madness, and a win on Friday would go a long way in helping to secure their postseason berth. The first time they played Alabama this season, they lost 66-63 on the road. They are 3-1 in their last four games, including a 69-68 overtime win over the Florida Gators in the SEC Tournament on Thursday.
Here is our best Mississippi State vs. Alabama college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds
Mississippi State vs. Alabama prediction
All recent trends are pointing toward the Bulldogs covering in this game. The spread of 7.5 feels way too large, especially when the Crimson Tide have covered that large of a spread only once in their last five games. However, it's hard to trust a team that just played an overtime thriller Thursday to keep up with the best and most well-rested team in its conference.
Therefore, we're going with the Over instead of the spread. The first meeting betwe en these two teams saw just 129 points, and while that is how the Bulldogs have played this season, that low-scoring contest was an outlier for the Crimson Tide. The Tide are averaging 82.8 points per game this season, and they scored 78 or more points in each of their last four wins.
In fact, the Tide scored at least 70 points in all but two of their wins this season, with one coming against the Bulldogs. In their last two losses, they scored a combined 120 points, but they should have more success against a stout Bulldogs defense on Friday because they have fresh legs.
Though the Bulldogs have scored 70 points just twice in their last seven games, they should be able to get over that mark against a defense allowing nearly 70 points per game. After all, the Bulldogs have already played real minutes on this court which is going to help their offense significantly. Feel comfortable with this number up to 140.
Check out our best March Madness odds.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama best odds
|Over 137.5||Over 137.5||Over 137.5||Over 137.5||Over 137.5|
Perhaps it is too early in the day, but there has been absolutely no movement on this total. All five of tour best March Madness betting sites are in agreement about where the number should be and why the price should be what it is. Therefore, you can feel comfortable betting at any of these sportsbooks.
Get in quickly, however, as this number is bound to increase based on early wagering.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds analysis
The Crimson Tide opened as 7.5-point favorites, and that is where they remain at every major sportsbook. Look for this line to move to four full baskets before long, as the Crimson Tide are receiving 67% of wagers from the public. If the line goes down, then that means oddsmakers are confident in the Bulldogs, and you should probably jump on their spread.
The total opened at 137.5 and that is exactly where it has stayed. While the price at all five major sportsbooks is still -110, expect that to change soon. Over 60% of wagers have been placed on the Over, and with how good Alabama's offense can be, oddsmakers should have no problem moving this number up.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama game info
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Mississippi State vs. Alabama pick made 03/10/2023 at 8:34 a.m. ET.
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