The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (4-0) on Sep. 28 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Texas is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -38.5 (-115).
The Mississippi State vs. Texas Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi St and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Mississippi State vs Texas Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Texas have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 88.89% ROI).
Mississippi State is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .448
Mississippi State is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .547
Mississippi State is 4-8 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .547
Mississippi State is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .427
Texas is undefeated (12-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Texas is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508
Texas is 16-2 (.889) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-best in FBS; Average: .651
Texas is undefeated (12-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .535
Texas has gained 1,286 yards on 89 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Quinn Ewers (TEX) has completed 73.4% of passes (58/79) this season — T-9th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed a completion rate of 71.1% this season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.