The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-3) visit Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium to take on the Memphis Tigers (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Memphis is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-110).
The Middle Tennessee vs. Memphis Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
Bet now on Memphis vs Middle Tenn State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Middle Tenn State and Memphis, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 87.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Memphis vs Middle Tenn State and all games with BetMGM
Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer
Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Memphis Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Memphis has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Memphis has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Memphis have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Memphis has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 15% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Bets Today
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Memphis players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Memphis Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Demeer Blankumsee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Roc Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Seth Henigan has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Seth Henigan has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -74.71% ROI).
Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Memphis is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).
Middle Tennessee is 2-10 (.167) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .487
Middle Tennessee is 3-5 (.375) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .551
Middle Tennessee is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-16th-worst in FBS; Average: .490
Middle Tennessee is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .425
Memphis is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .548
Memphis is 12-2 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Memphis is 11-1 (.917) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Memphis is 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .685
Memphis’s QBs has thrown for 1,126 passing yards in 4 games (281.5 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS teams. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 342.0 passing yards per game this season — worst among FBS defenses.
Memphis’s offense has thrown for 1,126 passing yards in 4 games (281.5 YPG) this season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 342.0 passing yards per game this season — worst among FBS defenses.