Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes open the 2024 calendar with a Big Ten clash against the Michigan State Spartans, and our Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction based on the best college basketball odds sees a shootout on the horizon for Tuesday's matchup.
To nobody's surprise, the Iowa Hawkeyes (13-1) have followed up their national title run in 2022-23 with a strong start to this season behind reigning Wooden Award winner Caitlin Clark. They'll face one of their toughest tests yet on Tuesday against the Michigan State Spartans (11-2) in both teams' first contest of the 2024 calendar year.
Clark has been better than ever this season, leading the nation with a career-high 30.9 points per game while ranking fifth nationally in assists (7.6). She's been even more prolific from deep, sinking 40.2% of her shots on the highest volume (12.1 attempts per game) of any player in the c ountry.
She'll need to maintain that pace to keep up with the Spartans, who boast the nation's third-best scoring offense (92.5 PPG) and attempt even more 3-pointers per game (27.4) than Iowa (26.6) ahead of Tuesday's Big Ten clash.
Here is our best Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction
Everything about this matchup profiles as a shootout, just as it was when these teams met a season ago. And this year's contest could be a “first to 90” type of affair.
Michigan State (92.5 PPG) and Iowa (90.8 PPG) enter Tuesday as the top two scoring offenses in the Big Ten, with both checking in among the seventh-most prolific units in the country. Much of that is a function of pace and space, with bo th teams ranking in the top 20 in 3-point attempts per game.
Clearly, Clark is a big catalyst for that 3-point barrage for Iowa, though her gravity on the court has helped the Hawkeyes rank fifth in field-goal percentage (51.3%) with a top-25 rebound margin (plus-11.3), to boot. That well-rounded attack has powered Clark and Co. to 90-plus points in nine of their first 14 games, including three straight entering Tuesday's tilt.
Don't sleep on the Spartans, though, who have also dropped 90 points in nine of 13 games and have scored 80-plus points with at least eight made threes in all 11 of their wins. They also feature four players scoring in double figures – led by fifth-year senior Moira Joiner (16.4 PPG), who is hitting nearly three triples per game to spark her team's up-tempo attack.
Neither of these defenses have put up much resistance thus far, which was also the case last year in Iowa's dram atic 84-81 win last January – even with both teams shooting 30% or worse from beyond the arc. I'd expect a better shooting display from each side on Tuesday in what should be an up-tempo thriller.
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Michigan State vs. Iowa best odds
| DraftKings |
|---|
| Over 166.5 |
| -110 |
Only one of our best sports betting apps is offering odds on Tuesday's Big Ten headliner between Michigan State and Iowa, which is the only women's basketball game of the night featuring a ranked team.
Because of that, we've labeled this one as only a three-star play given the lack of options to shop around for. Still, if you're making a bet on this game, the Over is the best play on the board thanks to the firepower on both sides and the relative defensive woes that we've seen through the first dozen games.
As is always the case, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see what bonus bets are available from DraftKings or any other books that might hang odds for this game ahead of tip-off.
Michigan State vs. Iowa odds analysis
The total for this game originally opened a t 165.5 at DraftKings around 2:30 p.m. ET, and it took less than a half hour for that number to bump up to 166.5.
Don't be surprised if this total continues to climb ahead of tip-off, especially with the name recognition of Clark bringing public bettors into the fold. To be clear, we still think the Over is the sharper play here, and the early action seems to agree with that assessment.
As for the spread, Iowa opened as a 14.5-point favorite, and that number too could climb given Clark's star appeal. We don't have a strong lean on the side – Iowa is clearly the better team but faces a tough Michigan State team that can score in bunches and could keep this one close late.
Michigan State vs. Iowa game info
- When: Tuesday, Jan. 2 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
- How to watch: Peacock (streaming)
Mic higan State-Iowa prediction made Tuesday at 3:35 p.m. ET.
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