The Michigan State Spartans (3-0) visit Alumni Stadium to take on the Boston College Eagles (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Chestnut Hill, MA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Boston College is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Michigan State vs. Boston College Over/Under is 45.5 total points.
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Michigan State vs Boston College Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Boston College will win this game with 67.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Boston College, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan State vs Boston College Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boston College will cover the spread with 55.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michigan State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Boston College Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Boston College has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Boston College has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Boston College has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Boston College has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Boston College has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.70 Units / 4% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today
- Jaron Glover has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boston College players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Boston College Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Thomas Castellanos has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- Thomas Castellanos has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Lewis Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Dino Tomlin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Thomas Castellanos has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Michigan State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 60.83% ROI
- Michigan State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
- Michigan State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI
Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Boston College is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Boston College is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 252.5% ROI
- Boston College is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Boston College is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Michigan State is 1-6 (.143) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .430
Michigan State is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2022 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464
Michigan State is 1-6 (.143) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .426
Michigan State is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Boston College is 1-10 (.091) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Boston College is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .386
Boston College is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .411
Boston College is 3-12 (.200) when intercepting no passes since the 2022 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .334
Boston College’s QBs has thrown for 2,900 passing yards in 15 games (just 193.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 222.7 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Boston College’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 402 attempts since the 2023 season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.