When it comes to betting on the Steelers, why do we doubt Mike Tomlin?
Most of every off-season, we spend the majority of time discussing the players. Who changed teams, who got paid, who didn’t, and why on paper one team looks better than the other? Our off-seasons are all “paper talk.” And at the start of camp, “paper talk” dominates the thought process and the betting odds. Perception rules, and what occurred on the field at the end of the season is meaningless if it doesn’t fit our paper talk narrative.
Sixteenth-century French playwright Voltaire once wrote: “Doubt is an uncomfortable condition, but certainty is a ridiculous one.” From our “paper talk,” we begin to doubt the obvious, and before too long, we are certain, which as Voltaire wrote, is ridiculous. Doubting Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is uncomfortable and being certain he isn’t going to win more than eight games is ridiculous. All this doubt that leads to certainty is fueled by the “paper talk” of their roster—not by facts. Tomlin has never had a losing record, Tomlin won nine games with a roster riddled with injuries and a rookie quarterback last season, and now we are doubting him again. What does the man have to do to gain a little respect?
The Steelers and the Lions finished with identical 9-8 records, and both corrected their seasons after their bye weeks. The Steelers went 7-2 after their bye, committing only five turnovers in the nine games, with three of them coming against Baltimore in a loss. The Lions went 8-4 after their bye week, committing only nine turnovers in those twelve games, with five coming in the Dallas loss. Yet, the Lions are the apple of the “paper talk” crowd, and the Steelers are picked for last place in the AFC North. Now, I understand the AFC North is significantly more talented than the NFC North, but why do the Lions get the love, and the Steelers get the doubt?
Both teams played the Panthers in Carolina after their bye weeks—which serves as a good platform to analyze both. In Week 15, the Steelers dominated the Panthers 24-16, and the score wasn’t an indication of the disparity between the two teams. Three fourth-quarter field goals by the Panthers made the game seem closer, yet the Steelers held the ball for over 36 minutes, converted 12 of 16 third downs, were always in control of the game, physically dominated the line of scrimmage and held the vaulted Panthers running game to 21 yards, their season low. It was an ass-kicking, plain and simple.