A Look Ahead to Week 7
For years, I have always compared Jared Goff playing in cold, nasty weather to the scene in when Henry Hill enters the Copacabana and is escorted to a table right in front of the stage. Instead of being in front of the stage, Goff is escorted to a table near the heaters. Not any longer. Goff is playing better in cold weather, and the analogy isn’t viable. With his second road game in as many weeks, Goff will face a tough Ravens defense and a windy, rainy day in Baltimore. Weather, mostly wind, will affect the games on the east coast from Baltimore to New England.
Goff’s trade to the Lions, which initially appeared as a lopsided trade in favor of the Rams, now appears as a win for both teams. The Rams won a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford, something they believed they never would achieve with Goff, and the Lions have gained respectability around Goff. Besides being respected, the Lions are good, trending towards exceptional. They have done a great job of building an offensive line to protect Goff, which is vital. They developed the perfect scheme for his game, copying the McVay Rams offense, built around the run game and hard play-action passes. Goff has responded with stellar play, and this season might be the best of his career. He has lowered his bad throws to an all-time low of 14.4%. He’s also on target 80.9% of the time, with his receivers dropping 13 passes already. Those two numbers are career bests for Goff.
As we all know, Goff has been the most profitable quarterback for the betting public since 2021, going 26-11 against the spread. When facing good teams since the start of the 2021 season. Goff has been 10-1 ATS against teams with a 60% win percentage. So besides improving his game in bad weather, Goff has raised his game against the good teams.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson of the Ravens has also improved. Jackson currently has improved his percentage of bad throws to the lowest of his career—14.8%. The Ravens receivers have dropped nine passes for him, which is improved from last season. His timing, accuracy and decision-making are all on an upward trajectory. When Jackson plays against the NFC, he’s unbeatable, going 15-1 straight up, with his only loss coming against the Giants last season. Then, factor in the Lions' defense struggles against running quarterbacks, allowing 258 rushing yards last year to the Bears, mostly coming from quarterback Justin Fields in their first game, 164 yards to Buffalo with Josh Allen creating most of the plays, and another 200 to the Fields led Bears (before he was injured) in their second game. It begs the question, can they stop Lamar Jackson from running, especially if the wind makes throwing hard?