A Look Ahead to Week 17
Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells has many great one-line quotes. The one that applies to us here in the betting community is: “When a player shows you who he is, believe him.” For us, we can alter that line slightly, replacing the word player with team. After sixteen weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs have shown us who they are, an offensive team with no explosiveness, no big play ability, a porous offensive line, and prone to turnovers. Why do we think this is going to change now?
In any part of life, accepting change is hard. During the 2023 season, the Chiefs have been resistant to change, still running the old version of their offense without the old parts. No longer do they have Tyreek Hill to scare the defense. No longer do they have a healthy Travis Kelce, or a fast Kelce who required double coverage at all times. No longer do they have an offensive line that can protect and keep their quarterback from being hit. And most importantly, no longer do they have a quarterback who is protecting the ball.
After the Lions' opening game loss at home, we could all see something wasn’t right in Chiefland offensively. From that first game, we clearly could see their defense was far ahead of
their offense. And that proved to be true as the 2023 Chiefs is the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era in Kansas City. They rank seventh in EPA this season, a huge jump from 15th last year, and they have been able to overcome their lack of offensive production and turnovers. What hasn’t proven to be true was our belief the Chiefs would fix their offense. In our minds, with Mahomes under center and Andy Reid calling plays, the Chiefs would correct their ills, get their offense fixed and be back to their old self. Wrong.