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With ESPN College Gameday at California's campus for the first time, there's a little extra energy in Berkeley as the Golden Bears take on Miami.
- Coming off an iffy win over Virginia Tech, we're backing Cam Ward in our Miami vs. California player prop bet to bolster his Heisman Trophy odds
- The Hurricanes are the only non-SEC/Big Ten team that are minus money by the College Football Playoff odds
- If Cal pulls off the upset as a 10-point underdog, it will spoil Miami's college football championship odds
In the final game of our Week 6 college football predictions, we detail why this matchup should be one of the best on the slate with our Miami vs. California prediction.
Miami vs. California college football player prop bets: Saturday
Odds as of Saturday and subject to change.
- Xavier Restrepo touchdown pick: A nytime touchdown scorer (-125 via DraftKings) ????
- Jaydn Ott Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ????
- Cam Ward Over 306.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ????
College football picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Miami vs. California touchdown pick
While Ward gets all the attention for spearheading Miami's explosive offense, Xavier Restrepo is quietly one of the nation's best receivers. He's scored in four of five games this season and ranks ninth in the country in receiving touchdowns (five).
Cal's defense is just 62nd in EPA per dropback and has yet to play an even average starting QB. So Restrepo should find the end zone with Ward leading the sixth-rated offense by SP+.
Ward has produced a 130.0 NFL QB rating when targeting Restrepo, and Miami's go-to receiver ranks among the top 30 in both contested catches (four) and contested catch rate this season (80%), according to PFF. That will come in handy in the red zone.
This same prop is as short as -162 at our other college football betting sites, implying a 61.83% win probability. But this price pays an $8 profit on a $10 winning bet.
Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Best Miami vs. California prop bets
It's been a slow start to the season for star running back Jaydn Ott due to an ankle injury. But he looked like his old self two weeks ago against Florida State. And he should be nearly 100% for this matchup after a bye last week.
Miami's run defense has been suspect this season – it's 32nd in EPA per rush – and just gave up 141 rushing yards to Bhayshul Tuten last week. And Ott was 11th in rushing yards after contact (833) and 22nd in missed tackles forced (59) last campaign.
He's going to get plenty of touches against Miami and should go Over 71.5 rushing yards for the second straight game. If he does, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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There are two significant reasons Ward has surpassed 306.5 passing yards in four of five games this season.
The first is that he's one of the best QBs in the country and ranks second in big-time throws (15). He's also just one of 16 passers with an ADOT of nine-plus yards and an adjusted completion rate above 77%.
The second reason is that Miami just hasn't run the ball that well, forcing it to rely more heavily on Ward. And in a game that should be somewhat close, Ward will clear this line and turn a $10 bet into an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Miami vs. California game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 5
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: California Memorial Stadium (Berkeley, Calif.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 84 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph N
- Favorite: Miami -10 (-110 via bet365)
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