:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72137051/usa_today_20322186.0.jpg "Miami-UConn prediction: Moneyline pick for Final Four in 2023 NCAA Tournament")
The nightcap of the 2023 Final Four will feature the No. 4 seed UConn Huskies and No. 5 seed Miami Hurricanes on Saturday, April 1. The game will tip off at approximately 8:49 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, and can be seen on CBS.
The winner will get a spot in the national title game, and UConn will enter as -250 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook with Miami getting +210 odds as the underdog.
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 UConn: Moneyline Pick
Miami (29-7, 15-5 ACC) took down some big boys on its way to winning the Midwest region with victories over the No. 12 seed Drake Bulldogs (63-56), No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers (85-69), No. 1 Houston Cougars (89-75) and No. 2 Texas Longhorns (88-81). The Hurricanes are a one-sided team with an offense that rates fifth in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, while the defense checks in at 104th nationally. Miami battled back from a 13-point deficit in the Elite Eight round and hit 59.2% of shots from the floor and 28-of-32 from the free throw line.
UConn (29-8, 13-7 Big East) is the favorite to cut down the nets on Monday night and hammered opponents on its way to Houston. The Huskies beat the No. 13 seed Iona Gaels (87-63), No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels (70-55), No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks (88-65) and No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (82-54). UConn won every NCAA Tournament game by at least 15 points and by an average of 22.5. The Huskies are the top-rated overall team in KenPom nationally including third on the offensive end and 11th defensively. In its last time out, UConn limited the Zags to 33.3% shooting from the floor including 10% from beyond the arc.
Pick: UConn
It's tough to find many reasons to bet against the Huskies at this point. They've simply dominated throughout this NCAA Tournament against a fairly difficult schedule, and UConn is by far the more balanced team in this matchup. The Canes' biggest strength comes on the offensive end by far, but the Huskies' offense is better with a significantly better defense. UConn is scoring 81.8 points per game in this tournament, and Miami's defense will be the worst it's faced during this run.