Mexico vs. Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions: Urquidy Provides Vital Pitching Advantage for Mexico
Mexico vs. Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions: Urquidy Provides Vital Pitching Advantage for Mexicoiv class=”bodyContent col-lg-9 mb-3″>

It's a battle for a spot in the quarterfinals as Mexico and Canada look to improve to 3-1 in their final game of Pool C play at the WBC on Wednesday. Read on for our Mexico vs. Canada picks for the WBC 2023.

Mexico and Canada enter the final game of pool play against one another knowing that a win would guarantee a spot in the next round of the tournament.

While a loss isn't necessarily automatic elimination, both sides know what they need to do Wednesday to avoid reliance on tiebreaker scenarios to extend their lives in the World Baseball Classic.

Here is our best Mexico vs. Canada pick (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mexico vs. Canada pick: WBC 2023

After Mexico's pitching staff held Great Britain to just one run on Tuesday in a game that was arguably closer than most folks had anticipated it would be, the Mexican team turns to Houston Astros starter Jose Urquidy to take the ball and pitch the country into the quarterfinals of the WBC.

Check out our WBC best bets for Wednesday.

Standing in Mexico's way will be Canada, which has the same 2-1 record and also finds itself a win away from advancing in the tournament. A loss for either side would necessitate a United States loss to Colombia followed by the benefit of tiebreaker proceedings to advance. Essentially, the win is the only thing that can allow Mexico or Canada to control its own destiny.

While Canada's Tuesday starter Noah Skirrow was excellent for five innings against Colombia, the Canadian bullpen also fired four innings worth of pitches without surrendering a run. The pressure now sits on the shoulders of journeyman pitcher Rob Zastryzny to go blow for blow against Urquidy. Zastryzny has just 38 2/3 big-league innings in a lengthy career, while Urquidy spent 2022 as a reliable starter for the World Champion Astros.

Although to cover this spread the Mexican lineup will need to perform better than it did against Great Britain in its last game, the pitching advantage is substantial enough to side with Mexico given the reasonably low run line in the matchup.

Mexico vs. Canada best odds

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars PointsBet
Mexico -1.5 Mexico -1.5 Mexico -2.5 Mexico -1.5 Mexico -1.5
-190 -194 -120 -170 -200

Though the majority of our best sportsbooks list Mexico as a 1.5-run favorite, the juice on a run line wager is substantial. PointsBet offers the worst value at -200, but DraftKings (-190) and FanDuel (-194) aren't much better. 

The value at Caesars is the most favorable of the books with the Mexico -1.5 line, but even there you'll pay a premium (-170) to place the wager. BetMGM's -120 odds on Mexico -2.5 provides an alternative to the juiced-up lines at the other sports betting sites. It comes down to Caesars and BetMGM for the best value; regardless of which line you take, this is merely a three-star recommendation due to the finicky nature of the odds.

Mexico vs. Canada odds analysis

Mexico opened as a favorite over Canada and sits between -1.5 and -2.5 across our best MLB bett ing sites. Bettors should expect to pay a premium on the odds to get the line at -1.5, though the -2.5 listing comes with more standard odds in the -120 range.

The total sits at 10.5 across the board with a slight premium on the Over.

Mexico vs. Canada game info

  • Date: Monday, March 15, 2023, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: FS2
  • Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
  • Weather: Indoors

Mexico-Canada pick made 03/15/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

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  • FanDuel: Get 10x Your First Bet up to $200 | Read our FanDuel Review
  • Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
  • DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
  • PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
  • BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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