Mexico Open 2023 picks: Outright winner picks, predictions, odds

The 2023 Mexico Open tees off on Thursday, April 27 from Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The Vidanta Vallarta course favors long drives and strength, and 2022 champion Jon Rahm will return to the field to go for a second annual win at the Open. Here are our top picks to win it all.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jon Rahm +250

Rahm is an easy pick here, though these odds aren't the highest payout you'll ever see betting on golf. Not only did Rahm win the Masters, he also got a post-Masters tournament out of his system and can get his head back in the game. He won and set a course record here last year, and at a course that favors those who can drive balls very far off the tee, this is an excellent fit for the Spaniard.

He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, ranks fourth in SG: Off The Tee, and ranks first in SG: Approach. And perhaps most importantly, the guy has been winning, winning, winning this year. Without an elevated field to compete against, Rahm could make quick work of this tournament.

Tony Finau +750

Finau has also been having a good year, with seven top-20 finishes and no missed cuts. Finau has been holding his own as a top-20 golfer against elevated event fields, and faces a much easier competition here (excepting Jon Rahm, of course). He ranks second in the field behind Rahm in SG: Total, SG: Tee to Green, and SG: Approach.

While his off-the-tee ranking may not be as high, Finau should be able to handle this course – he was a runner-up last year, losing to Rahm by a single stroke. Issues may appear with his putting, but I would put money on him and Rahm being in the final group on Sunday together.

Brandon Wu +6000

Wu is a much longer shot than the other two favorites, but was a runner-up alongside Finau last year at the Mexico Open. He ranks in the top 15 in the field this week in SG: Total and SG: Tee to Green. He also has experience playing this course very well.

The issue with Wu is whether it will be an up week or a down week. In 2023, Wu has missed five cuts and ended up with three top-20 finishes, including one at THE PLAYERS Championship. When he's on, he can play well, but when he isn't, he's a bit of a hopeless case. He finished T26 at last week's Zurich Classic team event. Wu is a much riskier pick, but with a much higher payout.

  
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