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The New York Mets and New York Yankees begin their second Subway Series of the year tonight, and we have you covered with our best Mets vs. Yankees predictions.
The Yankees salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, and have won just one of their last 10 series. One of those series losses in that span was a two-game sweep at the Mets when the cross-town rivals out-scored them 21-9.
Given the Yankees' sub-.500 record (11-13) against left-handed starting pitchers, we felt compelled to center our first Mets vs. Yankees player prop around Mets southpaw Jose Quintana.
The Yankees range from -154 moneyline favorites at Caesars to -162 at DraftKings, with the first pitch from Yankee Stadium scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Mets vs. Yankees player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting site s; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Jose Quintana Over 4.5 strikeouts (+135 via bet365) ???
- Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 RBIs (+250 via BetMGM') ????
- Alex Verdugo Under 0.5 hits (+160 via bet365) ?????
Mets vs. Yankees expert picks
The Mets likely figured a key to beating the Yankees in two straight games last time they squared off was throwing two southpaws against them. While Quintana was not one of them, we expect him to continue the team's successful pitching against the Yankees.
The Yankees entered Monday ranked seventh in batting average (.251) and in the top three in on-base percentage (.331), slugging (.442), and wRC+ (120) against right-handed pitching. However, against left-handed pitching, those rankings drop to 25th in batting average (.232), 10th in on-base percentage (.326), 24th in slug ging (.371) and 14th in wRC+ (103).
This is only a three-star play, as the Yankees got production from several struggling players on Monday including home runs from Anthony Volpe (first home run since May 16) and DJ LeMahieu (first home run of the season). We don't expect that to carry over to this series opener.
I prefer to back the Under on Quintana's earned runs allowed, and would play it down to Under 2.5 (preferably for plus-money odds), but none of the best sports betting sites had that prop available at the time of this writing. Instead, we are encouraged by the +135 odds at bet365 for Quintana to throw five or more strikeouts.
A winning $10 wager at this price pays $23.50, which is $2.90 more than FanDuel pays out with its +106 odds.
Best odds: +135 via bet365 | Implied probability: 42.55%
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McNeil figures to be one of the Mets hitters that benefit from aiming at the short porch in Yankee Stadium, especially given his egregious home/road splits. McNeil has slashed .180/.244/.248 in 161 at-bats at Citi Field, and .265/.314/.449 in 147 road at-bats.
Over the last 14 days, McNeil has led all Mets hitters with a 50% hard contact rate. By comparison, the next-closest hitter is Pete Alonso at 37.5%. Thus, even McNeil's outs lately have been loud outs. I'm confident he will find himself in a position to drive in a run against Luis Gil, who has allowed a 16.7% line drive rate and a rotation-worst 38.9% hard-hit rate since June.
I would not put anyone off backing McNeil to get at least one hit (his O/U is 0.5) at bet365's relatively short price of -150. However, we are opting for the much better payout of $35 on a winning $10 wager at BetMGM. McNeil's implied probability to drive in a run is as high as 31.25% which is reflected in FanDuel's +220 odds.
Best odds: +250 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 28.57%
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Verdugo has arguably been the worst hitter in baseball for the last five weeks. Entering this new week, Verdugo had been batting .152, slugging .219, and had an on-base percentage of .212, all of which were the worst among all qualified MLB hitters since June 15.
I am shocked to learn that our best sports betting apps are offering +146 odds or better for Verdugo to go hitless, as he has one hit in his last 18 at-bats and two in his last 27. And to top it off, he has been worse against left-handed pitching all season, slashing .196/.279/.278 against southpaws and .241/.289/.398 against righties.
Compared to Caesars' +146 odds with a 40.65% implied probability, we are getting a much better payout at bet365. A winning $10 wager at +160 odds pays $26 ($1.40 more than Caesars).
Best odds: +160 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.46%
Mets vs. Yankees game info & odds
- When: Tuesday, July 23
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y.
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Yankees (-154 via FanDuel)
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