The New York Mets (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Mets are 2-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 3-4 ATS.

Mets vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 0-1, 5.41 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-0, 5.41 ERA

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
• Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 70% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 87% ROI)
• Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
• Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
• Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 59% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 1-6 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -64.94% ROI).

• 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -50.86% ROI
• 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -45.1% ROI
• 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 36.13% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -15.12% ROI).

• 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 8.65% ROI
• 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 35.26% ROI
• 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -45.39% ROI

Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Severino has an ERA of 8.14 (48.2 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 4.43 — first Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 100% (14/14) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strike rate of 88% (21/24) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted .341 (73-for-214) against Luis Severino on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (169/311) against Nick Martinez in the 2023 season — 8th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (216/616) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.

Nick Martinez walked 24 of 138 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 7th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — seventh Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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