The New York Mets (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Sunday, October 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 92-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 79-84 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 12-7, 3.92 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 11-9, 3.28 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 107 games (+23.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 108 games (+16.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 85 away games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 away games (+3.32 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+17.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 72 games at home (+13.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 104 games (+12.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+12.23 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games at home (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 86-80 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 1.46% ROI).
- 92-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.9 Units / 4.7% ROI
- 84-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 77-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -7.74% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 79-84 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 95-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 79-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 76-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -6.34% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) |
0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) |
0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) |
0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) |
0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) |
0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) |
0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) |
0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) |
4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 277 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 17th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (50-for-255) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 88th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (253/598) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (800/2,025) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (324/557) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (201/316) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (419/854) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.