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Two NL East rivals, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, meet in the postseason for the first time on Saturday from Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies enter sitting third in the World Series odds, with slugger Bryce Harper fourth in the World Series MVP odds.
- The Mets were given a 7% win probability when they entered the ninth inning trailing 2-0 in Game 3 against the Brewers
- Philadelphia's 95 regular-season wins were its most since 2011, which was also the last year it won the NL East
- Philadelphia edged New York 7-6 in the head-to-head season series
Our Mets vs. Phillies prediction expects the favorites to take Game 1 behind a strong pitching performance from their ace.
Mets vs. Phillies predictions: Game 1
- Moneyline pick: Phillies (-174 via FanDuel) ????
- Zack Wheeler player prop bet: Under 1.5 earned runs (-105 via DraftKings) ???
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Mets vs. Phillies?
First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park
Best odds: -174 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 63.50%
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In one of the most surprising managerial decisions of the playoffs thus far, the Mets announced Kodai Senga as their Game 1 starter.
Senga went into this year as the unquestioned ace of the staff, but he's made just one start this campaign while dealing with calf and triceps injuries. That lone start lasted 5 1/3 innings, and it was back on July 26. However, Senga threw a 25-pitch live batting practice session on Monday in preparation for this start.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has been pushing many of the right buttons so far this year. But this is a decision that could backfire, even if Senga is only asked to work two or three innings with either Tylor Megill or David Peterson available to back him up for the bulk of the innings.
Either way, this Phillies squad is loaded with playoff experience after making consecutive NLCS appearances. They produced the best regular-season home record (54- 27), the fifth-highest scoring offense (4.8 runs per game), and the club boasts one of the top postseason pitchers in recent memory on the mound.
Zach Wheeler has pitched to a 2.42 ERA, a minuscule 0.726 WHIP, and he's recorded a 10.4 K/9 rate or better in four of his last five postseason series.
Philadelphia is 50-21 straight up in its last 71 home games (+14.80 units/11% ROI), but it's covered the run line in just 41 of its last 96 games overall (-19.05 units/-16% ROI).
I'm therefore not laying the 1.5 runs with the Phillies, even though that would return a much bigger payout, and I'm backing the moneyline odds at FanDuel. The price surprisingly came down a lot from -190 or higher at all of our best sports betting sites after the Senga news was announced.
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Wheeler has made a franchise record 11 consecutive starts with six-plus innings pitched and two earned runs or fewer allowed.
While that forced me to look long and hard at the Over 17.5 outs recorded, especially with him being well rested for this start, I could not justify the juice as high as -175 to back the Over.
Wheeler has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of those historic 11 starts. And while the Mets tagged him for two earned runs over seven innings during a Sept. 22 win, Wheeler still generated a 28% CSW and his velocity was up 0.6 mph or more on all of his pitches compared to the veteran's season average.
The Under is juiced as high as -111 (carrying a 52.61% implied proba bility). So the best return is at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would net $9.52 in profits.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Mets vs. Phillies odds & game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 5
- First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Phillies (-185 via BetMGM)
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