The New York Mets (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Monday, July 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Mets are 40-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-35 ATS.

Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 3-0, 3.67 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-7, 3.58 ERA

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 75 games (+13.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 75 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+5.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-42 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -5.23% ROI).

• 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -3.31% ROI
• 42-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 3.93% ROI
• 35-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -12.15% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 48-35 against the Run Line (+9.68 Units / 9.08% ROI).

• 39-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 9.99% ROI
• 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -9.8% ROI
• 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.03 Units / 1.12% ROI

Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,955/3,240) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 51% (58/113) against David Peterson on breaking pitches since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (583/1,041) since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (48/152) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 33% (59/180) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (77/238) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (28 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — seventh Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (208/373) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

  
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