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We may not have to wait long to see fireworks on the Fourth of July, as the New York Mets (42-42) conclude their four-game series with the Washington Nationals (40-46) with first pitch set for 11:05 a.m. ET on MLB Network.
The Mets are -115 favorites to beat the Nationals based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting sites, which all expect a high-scoring affair from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. We have our sights set on a perennial MLB MVP odds contender as part of our Mets vs. Nationals player props for July 4.
Mets vs. Nationals player props
Confidence for MLB picks based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best MLB betting sites.
- Jose Quintana Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110 via DraftKings) ?????
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 bases (-120 via BetMGM) ????
- Jake Irvin Ove r 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110 via DraftKings) ???
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Mets vs. Nationals expert picks
Quintana clearly wouldn't be mistaken for a strikeout artist in his age-35 season, having punched out roughly four batters per start with a mere 7.1 K/9. But he's been a different pitcher lately, having sent down 21 hitters over his last three starts.
That's not a fluke. The veteran lefty made a few adjustments earlier this month with an eye on whiffs, leaning more on his secondary stuff and attacking inside. The results have been clear: he's punched out six or more batters in each of his last three starts, including seven in four innings Friday against a potent Houston Astros lineup.
This bet is trading at -115 across the rest of our best sportsbooks, which implies a 53.49% chance of cashing per our odds converter. These -110 odds are a nice bonus and would pay out $9.09 on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
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This is the more responsible way to bet on Lindor hitting a home run, which he's done in two straight games entering this one. (If you're feeling spicy, he's +250 to make it three straight.)
That power surge seemingly came out of nowhere, but Lindor's been hitting the ball well for weeks. He's registered at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, with five doubles and three home runs in that stretch, and he's cleared this total in seven of those nine games (77.8%).
He's also gotten after Jake Irvin before, registering a single and a double in three previous at-bats against the Nationals righty. These -120 odds imply a mere 54.55% probability that he'll register two hits or an extra-base hit for the eighth time in 10 games. I like our chances there.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM
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Whether it's Lindor or someone else, I would be surprised if Irvin escapes the dawn's early light without giving up a bomb or two against this Mets lineup.
On paper, Irvin's recent lines look solid: he's lasted six or more innings in seven of his last eight starts with a 2.09 ERA in that stretch. But he's allowed six home runs over those eight starts, including one in each of his last four outings, and his FIP is a revealing 3.73 over that span.
Meanwhile, the Mets have been crushing the ball with a 9.6% barrel rate and .334 xwOBA – both ranking fourth across the majors. They've scored 21 runs across the first three games of this series, and I fully expect them to get the show started before Irvin's day is over.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
Mets vs. Nationals odds
Mets vs. Nationals game info
- When: Thursday, July 4
- First pitch: 11:05 a.m. ET
- Where: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
- How to watch: MLB Network
- Favorite: Mets (-115 via bet365)
Mets-Nationals player props made Thursday at 1:15 a.m. ET.
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