The New York Mets (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 87-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 64-72 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 44 of his last 69 away games (+18.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 away games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 80 of their last 140 games (+12.17 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 49 away games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 75-62 against the Run Line (+12.7 Units / 7.44% ROI).
- 87-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 6.13% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 2.48% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -11.22% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-72 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -10.65% ROI).
- 57-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.2 Units / -15.7% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -11.06% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 2.87% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 56% (229/412) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (261/745) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (119/526) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 33% — third Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 67 of Taijuan Walker’s 311 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (36 Total Bases / 48 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .395 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.150 (56 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .693 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (76/161) against Jesus Luzardo on changeups this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has walked 22 of 179 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 0 Percentile.