The New York Mets (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 86-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 63-71 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 42 of his last 67 away games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+16.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 away games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 away games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 74-61 against the Run Line (+12.6 Units / 7.47% ROI).
- 86-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 6.49% ROI
- 68-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 60-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -9.88% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -10.64% ROI).
- 56-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.6 Units / -16.15% ROI
- 58-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -12.57% ROI
- 70-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 4.44% ROI
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.532 (90 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (50 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .415 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .463 (50-for-108) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .338 against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .260 — third Percentile.
Pablo Lopez: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (92/234) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (138/359) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (189/617) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (186/476) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.